Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 18, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  US economic calendar includes ADP weekly jobs data (8:15am), August factory orders (10am)
and September TIC flows (4pm); initial jobless claims in the week ended Oct. 18 numbered 232k in data posted to Labor Department website after being delayed by US government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Barr (10:30am), Barkin (11am) and Logan (7:55pm).

Highlights and News:  

  • US removes ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on $1bn of Philippine agricultural products
  • BofA Global Fund Mgr. Survey Shows Biggest Market “Tail Risk” is AI Stock Bubble
  • Ueda Signals BOJ Remains on Rate Hike Path After PM Meet
  • Bullishness Puts Market at Risk of Further Selloff: BofA Survey
  • China bought nearly a million tons of US soybeans
  • Cloudflare worked to address a widespread, worldwide networking outage

 

Global stocks are lower, led by a sea of red in Asia markets, with the heaviest selling in Japan and South Korea’s tech-driven markets as earnings at chipmaker Nvidia
loom this week as a test for valuations across the sector. A basket of Japan’s top AI-related stocks tracked by BNP Paribas was down by 4.7% during the session, taking its monthly decline since the end of October to about 15%. A group of lawmakers in Japan’s
ruling Liberal Democratic Party urged Prime Minister Takaichi to craft an extra budget much larger than what’s been indicated thus far as she puts the finishing touches on her economic package. Governor Kazuo Ueda told Takaichi that the Bank of Japan is in
the process of making gradual adjustments to the degree of monetary easing, and Ueda signaled his intention to carefully raise rates. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she was “alarmed” by the “one-sided, rapid moves” in the foreign exchange market.
BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett say investors are most overweight stocks since Feb., most overweight commodities since Sept. 2022, and running very low 3.7% cash levels, making it a challenge for further gains in risky assets.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures trimmed some earlier overnight losses, before weakening after a report from Home Depot suggested consumers are under strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed below their
50-day moving averages for the first time since April on Monday, suggesting further weakness.  Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s quarterly results on Wednesday, watching closely for any hints of slowing momentum in the semiconductor sector that has fueled
much of the stock market’s gains in recent months. Fund manager positioning (crowded in stocks and low on cash) is also a possible headwind, according to Bank of America. In corporate news, Apple’s iPhone 17 series drove a 37% rise in its monthly smartphone
sales in the key China market, according to Counterpoint Research. Amazon.com and Microsoft fell more than 1% in premarket trading after a ratings cut. Home Depot dropped after cutting its full-year earnings guidance, warning of weaker demand for big-ticket
purchases. Mass layoffs by US companies jumped to about 39,000 in October — one of the highest levels on record — signaling a weakening job market, Cleveland Fed data showed.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.7%. 

In pre-market trading, Microsoft (MSFT) falls 1.5% and Amazon (AMZN) is down 1.8%, underperforming Magnificent Seven peers after Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded
the stocks for the first time since initiating coverage in June 2022. Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.1%. Barrick Mining (B) is up 2.5% after the Financial Times reported that Elliott Management has built
a “large” stake in the gold miner. Home Depot (HD) falls 3.5% after the retailer reported comparable sales and adjusted EPS for the third quarter that missed and reduced guidance. Honeywell International (HON) falls 2.1% after BofA Global Research cut the
recommendation on the industrial giant to underperform from buy. Medtronic (MDT) is up 3.5% after the medical device maker lifted the bottom end of its range for adjusted profit forecast for the year. Molina Healthcare (MOH) is up 3.1% after hedge fund manager
Michael Burry touted the health insurer in an X post.

European gauges followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down more than 1% and looking at a fourth day of losses. Banks and auto shares are leading
declines with all sectors in the red. UK lenders are among the worst-performing banks in Europe amid tax worries ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s budget announcement on Nov. 26. Crest Nicholson shares fall as much as 12%, as the UK housebuilder
forecasts full-year profits at the low end of the range analysts expected. Umicore SA sank after an offering of shares in the specialty chemicals maker priced at a discount. Drugmakers outperformed, boosted by gains for Roche Holding AG after the company said
its experimental breast cancer drug met its interim primary endpoint in a phase 3 study. Stoxx 600 -1.5%, DAX -1.5%, CAC -1.4%, FTSE 100 -1.3%. Banks -2.8%, Autos -2.6%, Basic Resources -2.5%, Energy -2.2%.

Shares in Asia were broadly lower, as concerns about an AI bubble returned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.3% for a third straight
day of losses. Technology shares led a broad decline across all sectors, with TSMC and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Baidu posted its biggest quarterly revenue slide on record, despite major AI spending. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo weighed on markets
for a second day, with Korean travel shares advancing amid expectations for increased visitors from China following Beijing’s travel warning on Japan. Separately, analysts cautioned that Philippine equities may encounter additional pressure from ongoing political
uncertainty as President Ferdinand Marcos conducts a cabinet reshuffle. Indian equities are set for a strong 2026 after their worst underperformance of emerging market peers in three decades, helped by a push from government policy, according to Morgan Stanley.
Kospi -3.3%, Nikkei 225 -3.2%, Topix -2.9%, Taiwan -2.5%, ASX 200 -1.9%, Hang Seng Index -1.7%, Singapore -0.9%, CSI 300 -0.65%, Philippines -0.4%, Sensex -0.3%. Vietnam +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

 

 

METALS: 

Gold is steady after recouping some of its earlier decline as market participants trimmed their bets on a possible cut in US interest rates next month. The minutes
from the last Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting late last month will be released tomorrow. Elliott built a stake in Barrick Mining worth at least $700 million, the FT reported. Spot gold -0.01%, Silver -0.15%, Copper futures -0.9%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices reverse early losses to trade steady as fears of oversupply overshadow looming US sanctions on Russian oil majors. China’s imports of oil from Russia and
Iran are set to drop this month as importers and refiners are more careful and still devise workarounds after the US stepped up sanctions on Russia’s oil exporters and on China’s terminals that are key import hubs for sanctioned Iranian crude. China’s state-owned
majors including Sinopec and PetroChina have canceled previously ordered Russian oil cargoes, and large state and private refiners are looking for alternative supply in the short term. WTI +0.05%, Brent -0.02%, US Nat Gas -1.5%, RBOB -0.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar stayed in tight ranges versus most major peers as the Group-of-10 currencies largely shrugged off risk-aversion flows that weighed
earlier on stocks and cryptocurrencies. The yen is little changed as traders have been on alert to the threat of intervention from Japanese authorities as the yen keeps sliding to multi-month lows and past 155 per dollar, close to the levels that prompted
a currency intervention last year. The yen has slumped to a record low versus the euro, and MUFG sees room for more losses into next year. Aussie$ inches higher after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting showed the central bank remains
cautious and data dependent.  US$ Index -0.02%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY -0.03%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.03%, USDCAD -0.25%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.2%.

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum +1.2%. Bitcoin slid below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before paring some of its losses.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AES Corp (AES) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $13
    • Alphabet (GOOGL) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $320
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $117
    • Kilroy (KRC) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $44
    • Legence (LGN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $49
    • Pennant Group (PNTG) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $31
    • Regency Centers (REG) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
    • XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Buy at Daiwa; PT $29
  • Downgrades
    • Amazon (AMZN) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $250
    • Ardent Health (ARDT) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Auna (AUNA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $6
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $27
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • HEPS US Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $3.07
    • Honeywell (HON) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $205
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $500
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $34
    • Rocket Pharma (RCKT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Telus (T CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$19
    • VICI Properties (VICI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $32
  • Initiations
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $355
    • Barrick Mining (ABX CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) US Reinstated Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $9
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $85
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Carnival (CCL) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Reinstated Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $84
    • Churchill Downs (CHDN) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $115
    • DraftKings (DKNG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $31
    • Faraday Future (FFAI) Rated New Corporate at Edison Investment Research
    • Flutter (FLUT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $272
    • FormFactor (FORM) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $75
    • Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $10
    • Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $332
    • Hyatt (H) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $154
    • Innospec (IOSP) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $93
    • Kestra Medical (KMTS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $32
    • Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $66
    • Lumentum (LITE) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $290
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $329
    • Marriott Vacations (VAC) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
    • Penn Entertainment (PENN) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $15
    • Qualys (QLYS) Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $165
    • Rapid7 (RPD) Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $16
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $58
    • Royal Caribbean (RCL) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $320
    • Rubrik (RBRK) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $114
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $31.70
    • SentinelOne (S) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $25
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
    • SR (SRBK) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $16
    • Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) Travel + Leisure Co Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $74
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $56
    • Wyndham Hotels (WH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $82
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $151
    • Zscaler (ZS) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $400

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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