Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Report*, Philly Fed; 8:45ET Fed’s Hammack speaks;
9:30ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 10:00ET Existing Home Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Mfg Activity, Fed’s Cook speaks; 12:40ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:00ET 10-year TIPS reopening; 6:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 6:15ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 6:45ET Fed’s Paulson speaks

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep: 119K (est 51K; prior 22K; prior R -4K – Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (est 4.3%; prior 4.3%)

Highlights and News:  

• Focus turns to US jobs data as Nvidia blows away bubble fears
• Japan Is Set to Unveil Largest Spending Plan Since Pandemic Era Worth $135B
  
• CHINA WILLING TO PUSH FOR IMPROVEMENT IN ECONOMIC TIES WITH THE EU
• Verizon announced wide-ranging layoffs that will shrink the workforce by as much as 20%
• Only 20% of baby boomers expect to leave an inheritance, per FORTUNE
• Trump plans to roll out a “Genesis Mission” to boost US AI development
• Trump administration launches campaign designed to “bring back civility and manners when we travel”
• Amazon is currently the biggest company in the world ranked on revenue, 2^nd quarter ever above Walmart

Tech shares lead a global advance after a robust revenue forecast from Nvidia helped dispel fears of a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry that
had shaken markets for weeks. The rebound was given additional impetus by a Reuters report indicating that the US could postpone its long-threatened semiconductor tariffs as a gesture to defuse tensions with China. Japan’s government is finalizing a stimulus
package worth $135.38 billion, the largest since the COVID era, to ease the burden of prolonged inflation on households. Attention now turns to the path for interest rates as markets await the release of the September US jobs report.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures jumped after Nvidia’s blow-out quarterly results signaled that demand for artificial intelligence hardware remains strong even as analysts caution the boom may be outpacing
fundamentals. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed fears of an AI bubble on Wednesday, calling demand “incredible” as the company delivered stronger-than-expected accelerating growth, defying Wall Street concerns after multiple quarters of decelerating sales.
Revenue guidance topped estimates and margins are expected to hold in the mid-70% range through fiscal year 2027.  The long-delayed September jobs report is finally set for release today, marking the only major official employment data that will be available
before Federal Reserve officials gather for their December meeting. Consensus is for growth of 51,000 jobs and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Walmart increased its outlook for sales in the full year, with results likely to alleviate some concerns that consumers
are pulling back amid a cooling job market and rising prices. The retailer also said it’s switching its stock listing to the Nasdaq from the NYSE to reflect its focus on tech. Palo Alto Networks will buy Chronosphere for $3.35 billion to boost its AI-enabled
cybersecurity offerings.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +1.4%, Nasdaq +1.9%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +0.8%. 

In pre-market trading, In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 5% after the chipmaker reported its third quarter earnings on Wednesday, beating analysts’ estimates
on the top and bottom lines and offering a better-than-anticipated outlook. “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. Tesla (TSLA) +2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.9%, Amazon (AMZN) +1.4%, Meta Platforms
(META) +1.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) +1%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%. Atkore (ATKR) falls 11% after the maker of electrical products gave a forecast for 2026 adjusted earnings per share below analysts’ expectations. Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI) drops 13% after cutting
its full-year outlook. NetEase US-listed shares (NTES) decline 3% after the Chinese internet giant reported a miss. PACS Group (PACS) soars 40% after the nursing home operator said its restatements and audit committee investigation are now complete. Regeneron
Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rises 3.2% after the FDA approved EYLEA HD, an injectable drug to treat patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion. Walmart (WMT) slips 1% even though the retailer increased its sales outlook for the full year.

European gauges are firm after a 5-day losing streak as Nvidia’s CEO shrugged off AI bubble concerns, touting blockbuster demand for its high tech-chips. European defense
stocks gain after JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday’s steep declines were a “significant over-reaction” and provide a “compelling entry point into the sector.” BNP Paribas shares advance 6% after the French lender announced a new €1.15 billion buyback. Games
Workshop jumped over 12%, after the maker of the Warhammer tabletop game released a 1H trading update. Halma climbs as much as 11%, hitting a record high, after increasing guidance for the full year and delivering first-half results above expectations. Elior
surged as much as 20% after the French food services company said it would reinstate dividend payments. Allegro drops as much as 6.3% as weaker sales in November clouded 3Q earnings beat. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +1%, CAC +0.8%, FTSE 100 +0.6%. Defense +2.4%,
Industrials +1.6%. Autos -0.9%, Media -0.6%.

Shares in Asia climbed the most in three weeks as investors cheered Nvidia’s quarterly report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2% as most markets were in the region
were in the green, with tech-heavy benchmarks in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea leading gains. Nvidia’s report is good news for Asia markets, although the impact on China could be more muted as its tech sector is more driven by domestic demand and policy. Mainland
Chinese shares closed lower, though property stocks got a lift after policymakers are said to be considering new measures to turn around the struggling market. In corporate news, a Chinese investment firm bought a block of shares in TikTok parent ByteDance
at a valuation of $480 billion, far above recent levels. Taiwan +3.2%, Nikkei 225 +2.6%, Philippines +2%, Kospi +1.9%, ASX 200 +1.2%, Sensex +0.5%, Vietnam +0.4%, Indonesia +0.15%, Hang Seng Index was roughly flat. CSI 300 -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper led by front-end tenors as December Fed OIS contract prices in further loss of conviction in a rate cut next month. Focal points of
today’s session include the delayed release of September employment data and several speeches by Fed officials. The Fed will still lack much of the data it usually relies on at the time of its next policy meeting on December 10, with the next jobs report now
postponed until six days later to December 16. Traders see the absence of fresh economic data as potentially giving the Fed reason to hold rates steady, with Fed funds futures now assigning just a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month—down sharply
from 50% a day earlier—per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. 10-year yield is down about 1bp, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by about 1bp.

METALS: 

Gold reversed an earlier decline to trade flat ahead of the employment report. Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting, released on Wednesday, showed it cut interest
rates even as policymakers cautioned that doing so could risk entrenched inflation. Chinese copper demand has largely disappointed, with fabricator run rates at multiyear lows for the season. The London Metal Exchange will stop administering twice-daily auctions
that set benchmark platinum and palladium prices from the middle of next year, as it focuses on its core base metals offering. Traders now see nearly a 34% chance for a rate cut next month, down from 49% on Wednesday, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed. Spot
gold +0%, Silver -0.6%, Copper futures +0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices gain, boosted by a bigger-than-expected draw in US crude stockpiles and a general risk-asset market rally. Brent crude rose over $64 per barrel after falling
over 2% on Wednesday as markets assessed the latest US proposals to end the war in Ukraine and prepared for a US deadline to cease operations with two major Russian oil firms. Gains were capped by persisting oil market oversupply fears and the dollar hovering
near a six-month high. WTI +1%, Brent +1%, US Nat Gas -0.7%, RBOB -0.05%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches higher, hovering close to a 6-month high as traders await the release of September’s delayed jobs report to provide clues on
the Federal Reserve’s next move. The yen sagged to its weakest level in ten months, having also just set a record low against the euro. Traders are assessing news that Japan is reportedly preparing to pass a stimulus package that would be the country’s biggest
since the COVID-19 pandemic. BOJ board member Junko Koeda signaled a rate hike is possible as soon as December. Separately, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary warned that the yen is experiencing sudden and one-sided moves. Asia’s FX reserves have surged to almost
$8 trillion, giving authorities ample ammunition for currency defense amid market volatility. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.01%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.02%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.2%.

Bitcoin +1.4%, Ethereum +0.9%.  Bitcoin topped $92,000 after hitting its lowest level in seven months.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Agios (AGIO) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $34
• Apollo Global (APO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $180
• Avita Medical (RCEL) Raised to Neutral at BTIG
• Bullish (BLSH) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Design Therapeutics (DSGN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $13
• Jack Henry (JKHY) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $198
• Marsh McLennan (MMC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $110
• Parsons (PSN) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Downgrades
• Aon PLC (AON) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• BellRing Brands (BRBR) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $31
• Eversource (ES) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $68
• Globant (GLOB) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $61
• MarketAxess (MKTX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $209
• SEMrush (SEMR) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Initiations
• AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $225
• Belite Bio (BLTE) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $105
• Bruker Corp (BRKR) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $60
• Femasys (FEMY) Rated New Buy at Laidlaw; PT $6.50
• IonQ (IONQ) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $47
• Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $19
• Opko Health (OPK) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan
• Roper (ROP) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $60
• Stella-Jones (SJ CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$100
• Tarsus Pharma (TARS) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $100
• TopBuild (BLD) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $410

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke