Our View

Never forget the Fed lowered 0.50 bps on September 18, 2024, then lowered 0.25 bps on November 7, and what I think was one of the dumbest rate cuts in a very long time came on December 18, 2024—when the higher inflation data was staring the Fed in the face, and they lowered anyways. I was all over this stupidity and the 3% drop. The next Fed meeting is on December 9 and 10, and the question is… will history repeat itself? It’s still a ways off, but I think unless the data improves, the Fed may have to walk away from its December rate hike or face the same problem they did last December. Either way, it’s all about the Fed right now.

The ES traded up to 6669.75 on Globex at 4:06 AM and pulled back to 6625.25 at 4:30 AM. Recently, the gap-ups have been getting sold. Here are some of the top stocks and their losses: $ORCL, $PLTR, $META, $AMD, $TSLA, $NFLX, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT, and $AVGO have been the biggest losers among the Magnificent 7 and AI darlings from their highs. I still think the ES and NQ will shake off the selling going into December, but the Fed remains unknown.

I think we all know how the price action works—if the ES gaps higher or rallies hard early, it usually is a sale. The 6510 level is key today; if it holds, we could see a push back up to the 6600.00 level. If we start breaking, my 6480 level comes into play, and if the ES breaks 6450, then the 6410 level comes into play.

Our lean: I can’t rule out selling the early rips, but I think if the ES pulls back to 6480, I’d have to try a long.

Ever since the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, I have been very straightforward about reaching out to friends and family to make sure they are OK. Today’s story is about a guy very much like me who had hip surgery, but his resulted in far worse problems than my bilateral hip surgery did.

Helping a Friend Reclaim His Life After Devastating Injuries

I’m organizing this fundraiser for a close friend who’s been fighting a brutal battle — not just with his health, but with the crushing weight of trying to survive it alone.

Eric is 62 years old and has no immediate family to lean on. Life’s thrown him some tough breaks over the past 7–8 years: a failed marriage, a business that didn’t make it, and now a string of relentless medical issues. Over the past year, his body has broken down in ways no one should have to endure without support.

He’s had two full hip replacements in just five months. Before surgery, the pain was unbearable — he could barely walk 20 steps without stopping to rest on his cane. Everyday tasks like driving, getting groceries, or even using the bathroom became exhausting and painful.

Then, while recovering from the first hip surgery, Eric suffered a devastating fall that fractured a disc in his lower back (L2–L5), crushing nerves and unleashing constant, burning pain down both legs. Sitting hurts. Standing hurts. Lying down hurts. Now, doctors say spinal surgery is the only path to real recovery.

Eric’s worked hard his whole life. Asking for help isn’t in his nature. But this isn’t about pride anymore — it’s about survival.

I’ve been helping however I can — paying some medical bills, arranging rides, handling paperwork, dropping off meals — but the needs are now bigger than I can meet alone. That’s why I’m asking for your help.

Your support will directly cover:

No extras. No vacations. Just the basics to survive and recover.

What your donation means:

Images:
Bilateral hip X-ray – Titanium hips from two surgeries.

At 62, a life, illness, and a fall can take everything. But with your help, it doesn’t have to end there. If you believe in second chances and the power of community, please consider donating. And if you can’t give, sharing this with just five people can still make a world of difference.

I’ve set up a GoFundMe page
I don’t know how much I can raise, but I already sent $200. I hope you’ll help me help him.

All funds go directly to medical, housing, and food needs. Thank you for helping me help him get back on his feet again.

Market Recap

The ES had another dead cat bounce over lofty AI/tech valuations, fading Fed rate-cut odds after a divided FOMC, and hotter-than-expected data earlier in the week, along with a continued risk-off rotation into the end of the week. That capped a turbulent stretch where, despite a +1% gain on Friday (closing at 6,603 after Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal from Nvidia-fueled highs), the ES posted its worst weekly performance in months, down -2%.

The ES opened Friday at 6560.00, traded up to 6596.25, then sold off to 6539.50 at 10:39 AM. It rallied to a new high at 6677.50 at 2:24 PM, pulled back again to 6621.00 at 3:30, then rallied to 6644.40 at 3:49. The ES traded at 6636.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $2.3 billion to buy, and then traded 6622.50 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6620.25, up 62.75 points or +0.96%. The NQ settled at 24,350.50, up 174 points or +0.72% on the day.

In the end, despite the jump in volatility and 100- to 200-point swings, the ES closed up +0.98% and the NQ ended the week up +0.77%. In terms of overall tone, the ES acted firmer than the NQ. Volume was high with 2.489 million contracts traded. The ES had its largest reversal since April, and the NQ’s 5% reversal was one of the biggest of the year.

Last call for November: Thanksgiving holiday week schedule

Remaining November 2025 CME Equity Futures sessions are as follows:

Full sessions (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM EST):

Thursday, November 27: Markets closed all day (Thanksgiving) – No economic releases or Fed speak

Friday, November 28: Half-day session (9:30 AM – 1:00 PM EST)

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES Z

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6612.75. Price is currently trading above it around 6633.75 during Globex, showing early strength. Holding above this area keeps the tone constructive.

The upper intraday range target is 6715.50. If ES can build acceptance above 6660–6670, a rotation into 6715.50 becomes likely, with resistance ahead at 6766.75.

The lower intraday range target is 6510. A move back below 6612.75 would shift momentum lower and expose 6560 first, then 6525, and finally 6510.

Support sits at 6560 and 6525. Below 6525, sellers could drive toward 6510, where buyers may attempt a responsive defense.

Resistance stands at 6660–6670 and 6715.50. A sustained push through 6715.50 opens the door to 6812.

NQ Z

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,283.50. Price is currently trading above this level around 24,402.50, keeping short-term momentum slightly constructive as long as it holds.

Upper range target sits at 24,802.75. If price continues to firm above the bull/bear line, the path opens toward 24,596.25 and then the upper target. Holding above 24,732.50 would be needed to sustain upside pressure.

Lower range target is 23,764.25. A move back below 24,283.50 would shift intraday tone bearish, exposing 24,110 first, then 23,904.50, and finally the lower target if selling accelerates.

Immediate resistance: 24,596.25, then 24,802.75. Immediate support: 24,305.50 and 24,283.50, then 24,110.

Overall, trade above 24,283.50 favors attempts toward 24,596.25 and potentially 24,802.75. Trade back below it risks a rotation down toward 24,110 and 23,904.50, with 23,764.25 as the downside objective.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, November 24, 2025