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Our View

I have always said if someone tells you they make money on every trade, they are lying. But unlike many people or companies that write newsletters, I actually made up a lot of the patterns I see—and Monday’s rally was definitely part of what I was talking about: how down Friday opens can lead to big rallies and how Mutual Fund Monday ties into the trade when you get long on Friday and hold into Monday, that and the ES had been up 10 of the last 11 Mondays.

I think the tip-off to the ES being up on Sunday night was when I posted on Twitter that Bitcoin was up—and so would be the ES and NQ. I’m going to make this simple: I have seen what’s happening so many times I can’t count. Everyone is short, going into the end of the month during a shortened holiday trading week. What would normally be a 5-session trade is reduced to 3⅓ days and the November month-end.

What happens at the end of the month?

The mutual funds marked up the beaten-down AI and tech stocks. Advanced Micro Devices closed up 5.53%, Broadcom surged 11.10%, Micron climbed 7.99%, and both Google and Tesla added over 6% in yesterday’s AI-fueled rally. The Magnificent 7 increased nearly $300 billion in market capitalization. And it’s not over!!

Our View

As the ES, NQ, and YM squeeze higher, the CME clearing firms get what is called a SPAM notice of increased margin calls tied to the firm’s customers’ options positions. It used to be that margin calls went out at 10:30 AM and 2:30 PM, but as the CME continues to lock down the exchange’s risk, the margin calls now go out 24 hours a day.

Friday and Monday saw continuous margin calls and liquidation—and that’s what we saw the last few days—and I do not think it’s over.

81.8 million Americans are projected to travel at least 50 miles from home for Thanksgiving, from November 25 to December 1. This is a record high, up 1.6 million (2%) from 2024, according to AAA’s forecast based on data from S&P Global Mobility. It’s the busiest U.S. holiday for travel, with nearly 90% (about 73.2 million) driving, 6.1 million flying domestically (up 2% from last year), and 2.5 million using buses, trains, or cruises (up 8.5%). The forecast accounts for economic factors, bookings, and trends, and could rise if more people drive due to flight issues.

My own opinion is that the schools let out last Friday, and with the way the week is set up, most people will take the entire week off. As more and more people walk away from trading, the lower volumes will continue to favor the upside.

Market Recap

There are patterns that exist in the markets, and if you catch them—

Yesterday’s short squeeze is part of a larger pattern that has existed in the SPU, now $ES, that I have seen hundreds of times both at my S&P desk and off the floor.

The ES traded up to 6670.00 and opened Monday’s regular session at 6657.75, up 35.25 points or +0.53%. After the open, the ES traded 6654.75 and rallied 32 points up to 6686.75 at 9:35 AM in the first five minutes, then sold off 40 points down to 6646.75 at 9:50.

After the low, the ES rallied 67.75 points up to a 6715.50 double top, sold off down to 6705.25 at 11:30, rallied up to a new high 6716.50 at 11:45, and then rallied up to 6729.00 at 1:15. After the high, the ES pulled back to 6719.00 at 1:30, then rallied to another new high at 6729.50 at 2:05, pulled back to the 6710.00 level at 2:50, rallied up to a new high at 6730.50, and traded 6720.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $4 billion to buy.

It then traded up to a new high at 6731.75 at 3:55, sold off down to 6716.25, and traded 6718.75 on the 4:00 cash close. It settled at 6725.00, up 67.75 points or +1.01%, and the NQ settled at 24,962, up 642.75 points or +1.53% on the 5:00 futures close.

I put this in the chat at 10:00:

At the time, it was trading 24,650.00. It rallied 336 points after that post up to 24,986.50, only 13.5 points off from my 25,000 call.

In the end, everything worked in favor of the bulls—up FRYday, rally on Globex, open and blast higher, pullback, and just rip higher with the NQ and tech #NVDA +2.05% and $GOOG +6.28% leading the way.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, I think the day’s trade was telegraphed after the opening rip. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was much lower, with only 1.5 million contracts traded.

MiM

Market-on-Close Recap – Monday, November 17, 2025

The market-on-close auction opened with a sharp sell bias, and despite a brief midday stabilizing attempt, selling pressure remained with an initial opening imbalance of –$3.82B, driven by a surge of sell interest across NYSE, S&P, and NASDAQ constituents. The sell side peaked at more than –$12B shortly after, while buy interest held near $8.4B, keeping the market skewed heavily negative. Only in the final minutes did the total imbalance moderate, finishing near –$1.16B at 16:00.

Sector flows showed clear defensive rotation mixed with targeted liquidation. Utilities posted the only meaningful net buy program at +$815.9M, with 86.3% net buy skew—classic wholesale buying, indicating institutions stepping into defensive yield. Communication Services also showed a notable +$78.25M tilt. Energy finished slightly positive at +$4.22M but leaned negative in percent terms, suggesting rotation rather than accumulation.

On the sell side, Technology was the standout liquidation target, closing at a massive –$2.54B with a –72.3% lean, strong evidence of systematic sell programs. Healthcare (–$1.11B), Consumer Defensive (–$462.9M), Industrials (–$184.29M), and Real Estate (–$97.21M) all showed heavy outflows with sell leans beyond –50%.

Symbol-level pressure confirmed this theme. On the buy list, BRK.B, NFLX, SRE, and TSLA drew consistent inflows, while NVDA and MSFT had moderate buy interest that failed to offset the broader tech liquidation. On the sell list, BAC, AMZN, AMAT, GOOG, WMT, and PLTR all posted significant sell totals, with tech again the center of pressure.

The imbalance curve showed the market starting deeply negative, climbing toward neutral by 15:54 as buys built, then flipping to a buy‑side dominant posture at 15:55 before slipping again into the final 16:00 reduction.

Price action confirmed the imbalance flow: ES sold steadily from 15:44 through 15:55, making successive lower lows into 6,615 before reversing sharply. The 15:55 buy‑side flip aligned with a strong rotation candle that carried prices back toward 6,630 into 16:05.

Overall, this was a classically negative MOC session driven by program selling in Technology and Healthcare, modest rotation into Utilities, and broad-based liquidation across major indices. Institutions clearly leaned risk-off into the close.

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for November 25, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Monday, November 24, 2025

Weekly Breadth Data  📈

For Week Ending Friday, November 21, 2025

Calendars

Economic Calendar

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Trading Room Summaries

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, November 25, 2025

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!