Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 25, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET US September Retail Sales, US September PPI; 10:00ET US November Conference Board
Consumer Confidence; 1:00ET $70 billion 5-Year Note Auction, $28 billion 2-year FRN reopening

Highlights and News:  

  • US SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.4%
  • US and Russians Meet in UAE as Moscow and Kyiv Trade Fire
  • ZELENSKIY EXPECTS TO FINALIZE AGREEMENTS WITH TRUMP: UMEROV
  • KREMLIN: US PEACE FRAMEWORK COULD BECOME A GOOD BASE: IFX
  • UKRAINE AGREES TO TERMS OF PEACE DEAL: US OFFICIAL TO ABC NEWS
  • 19-POINT UKRAINE PLAN NO LONGER CONTAINS AMNESTY POINT: ABC
  • Nvidia Dips on Report Meta to Buy Google Chips
  • Alphabet’s supply chain related stocks jump on optimism around Alphabet’s TPU AI chip expansion

 

Global stocks inched lower as AI competition concerns and geopolitical tensions put a brake on the two-day bounce-back that was driven by rising Fed cut bets. A report
that Meta Platforms is in talks to use AI chips from Alphabet’s Google spurred investors to rethink bets on related companies, triggering volatile moves for tech stocks in Asia. Trump held back-to-back calls with the leaders of China and Japan, as escalating
tensions over Taiwan threaten to derail his weeks-old trade truce with Beijing. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump discussed diplomatic tensions with Japan in the phone call, with Xi asserting China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and described it as an integral element
of the postwar international order. US and Russian delegations, along with Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, are meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss Trump’s peace proposal while Moscow and Ukraine carried out airstrikes overnight. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy
said progress had been made in negotiations over peace proposals, but much remains to be done and the process should be conducted “with dignity”.
A US official told ABC News that Ukraine is agreeing to terms of the peace deal.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated, struggling to build on the biggest two-day advance since May as traders look ahead to a slate of economic data to gauge whether optimism over a potential
Federal Reserve interest-rate cut can hold up. A more dovish tone from Fed’s Waller and Daly has seen traders pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the last meeting of the year, up from ~30% last week. Ahead of Thanksgiving and Black Friday,
September retail figures are expected to show a moderation as consumers remain squeezed by high prices. Nvidia is under pressure pre-market after The Information reported that Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. Earnings from HP, Workday,
Autodesk, NetApp and Dell follow later in the day. Alphabet climbed in premarket trading as the company’s rapid progress in artificial intelligence positions it to challenge the top ranks of the world’s most valuable companies. Kohl’s shares surged premarket
after the company raised its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 4% as the search giant inches closer to a market value of $4 trillion. Nvidia (NVDA) drops 3.6% on a report that Meta
Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, suggesting the internet search leader is making headway in efforts to rival the industry’s bestselling AI accelerator. Alibaba Group ADRs (BABA) gains 2% after the company posted better-than-projected
growth in its pivotal cloud business. Amentum Holdings (AMTM) rises 11% after the IT services firm posted fiscal fourth-quarter pro forma revenue that grew 10% from the year-earlier period and beat estimates. Burlington Stores (BURL) falls 5% after the off-price
retailer’s comparable sales for the third quarter fell short. Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) drops 8% after posting quarterly results. Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 11% after the energy storage company forecast 2026 total revenue that beat the average analyst
estimate and announced more data center deals in the pipeline. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) rises 14% after the measurement instruments company gave a first-quarter forecast that was stronger than expected. Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) climbs 25% after raising its full-year
outlook for the second straight quarter. Sandisk (SNDK) climbs 3% after the computer hardware and storage company is selected to replace Interpublic Group of Companies in the S&P 500. Select Medical Holdings (SEM) jumps 10% after the operator of health-care
facilities said it received a take-private proposal from Executive Chairman Robert A. Ortenzio to acquire all of the company’s outstanding shares. Symbotic (SYM) rises 15% after the company gave first-quarter revenue forecast that beat. Zoom Communications
(ZM) gains 5% after the video communications software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations.

European gauges are making gains after early choppy trading as investors look ahead to a slew of economic data for clues on the path of interest rates. Defense stocks
rebound after Russia and Ukraine traded airstrikes overnight. UK stocks edged higher in choppy trading as investors awaited a highly anticipated budget this week which is expected to include significant tax measures. Banks gained in London after a Goldman
Sachs note referred to a Financial Times article that the sector would be spared from taxes. Among individual names, Kingfisher shares rise as much as 6.9% after the home-improvement retailer raised its full-year earnings guidance. ABN Amro gains as much as
5.1%, the best performer in the banks sector, after the Dutch lender said it is planning to cut almost 20% of its workforce in a bid to boost profitability. Marston’s shares rise as much as 15% after the pub operator reported results and said Christmas bookings
are strong. Beazley fell as much as 13% after the insurer’s third-quarter sales come in below analysts’ expectations and cut its annual insurance written premiums forecast. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Construction +1.5%, Defense
+1.3%, Banks +1.25%. Utilities -0.4%, Real Estate -0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, as investors repositioned their bets in artificial intelligence after a report that Meta Platforms is in talks to use chips from
Google. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, with tech stock seeing volatile moves. South Korea’s Kospi trimmed an earlier advance of as much as 2.6%, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both memory suppliers to Nvidia — pared gains. In Japan, a 10% decline
in SoftBank Group — a key partner to OpenAI — weighed on the Topix, which closed lower. Optimism over Alphabet’s TPU AI chip expansion boosted shares of its Asian suppliers, as investors sought to take position in potential new winners in the AI sector. Alibaba
rose 3% after its second quarter revenues beat estimates. Taiwan +1.5%, Thailand +1.3%, Hang Seng Tech +1.2%, CSI 300 +0.95%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%, Kospi +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.15%, Nikkei 225 +0.1%. Topix -0.2%, Singapore -0.2%, Sensex -0.4%, Vietnam -0.5%, Indonesia
-0.6%, Philippines -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are slightly lower with US 10-year yield down ~1.5 bps at 4.015% and the curve roughly flat. US session features a raft of economic data — much of
it delayed by last month’s US government shutdown — including September retail sales and PPI, and Treasury auction cycle continues with 5-year note sale. Today’s $70 billion 5-year note auction follows Monday’s solid 2-year note sale. This week’s cycle concludes
with $44 billion 7-year auction Wednesday. Markets are now pricing in an 80%-plus probability to a quarter-point interest-rate cut in December.  Expectations jumped after Fed governor Chris Waller added fuel to hopes by joining a growing number of policymakers
advocating near-term easing.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadied after surging in the previous session on increased confidence that the US will cut interest rates next month. Spot gold was trading near $4,140 an ounce,
having gained nearly 2% in the previous session. The jump on Monday was fueled by comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who advocated a rate cut in December due to a soft US labor market. Retail sales and producer-price numbers for September
are in focus this morning. Spot gold +0.15%, Silver +0.2%, Copper futures +0.15%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil fell sharply after ABC News reported that Ukraine agreed to the terms of a peace deal with Russia, though some minor details are still outstanding. Iranian crude
held on tankers at sea has swelled to the highest in two-and-a-half years, reflecting slower demand from top buyer China. Canadian PM Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith agreed to the broad terms of a deal that would support a new oil pipeline to
Canada’s west coast, the CBC reported. WTI -2%, Brent -1.9%, US Nat Gas -3.4%, RBOB -1.6%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed before a series of US data releases while pound hedging costs rallied ahead of Wednesday’s UK Autumn Budget. The yen outperforms
its Group-of-10 peers after Japan’s Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said the government is watching currency movements, including speculative activity, with a high sense of urgency. Aussie and New Zealand dollars are lower ahead of Australian CPI data
and RBNZ decision Wednesday. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK +0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin -1.5%, Ethereum -1.2%.  

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $285
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $216
    • Brinker (EAT) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $176
    • CDW (CDW) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • Cummins (CMI) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $500
    • Imax (IMAX) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $34
    • Inspire Medical (INSP) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $35
    • Semtech (SMTC) Raised to Buy at Summit Insights
  • Downgrades
    • Camden Property (CPT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $118
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
    • EHang Holdings (EH) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $13
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $105
      • Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $105
    • Globus Medical (GMED) Cut to Hold at CFRA
    • Green Dot (GDOT) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $14.25
    • Kraken Sonar (PNG CN) Cut to Market Perform at Cormark Securities
    • RBC (RY CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$215
    • TD Bank (TD CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$125
    • Waldencast (WALD) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $3
  • Initiations
    • Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $80
    • ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $43
    • Axis Capital (AXS) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $125
    • Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • CIBC (CM CN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$127
    • Coty (COTY) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $3.60
    • Dexcom (DXCM) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $68
    • Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Hanover (THG) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $200
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital; PT $21
    • Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $23.50
    • Highlander Silver (HSLV CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$5.50
    • Jade Biosciences Inc (JBIO) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $25
    • Jumia (JMIA) ADRs Resumed Buy at Benchmark; PT $18
    • Loar Holdings (LOAR) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $91
    • MINISO (MNSO) ADRs Resumed Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $23
    • Mirion Technologies (MIR) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $29
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$168
    • Oncology Institute (TOI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $5
    • Opus Genetics Inc (IRD) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $7
    • Oshkosh (OSK) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $150
    • Pelthos Therapeutics (PTHS) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • RBC (RY CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$229
    • Rhythm Pharma (RYTM) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $136
    • Scotiabank (BNS CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$108
    • ServiceNow (NOW) Rated New Neutral at Macquarie; PT $860
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • STMicro (STMPA FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $22
    • TD Bank (TD CN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$119
    • TransMedics (TMDX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Vistra Corp (VST) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $217
    • WM (WM) Rated New Buy at DZ Bank; PT $250
    • Zegna Group (ZGN) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $13

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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