Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods, 9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 11:30ET
7-Year Note Auction; 2:00ET Fed’s Beige Book

Highlights and News:  

• Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair
• OBR report wrongly released ahead of the budget
• UK EXTENDS FREEZE ON INCOME TAX THRESHOLDS UNTIL 2030-31
• Medicare Negotiates 71% Discount on Ozempic
• Trump Sends Witkoff to Meet Putin in Moscow
• Jakarta is now world’s largest city, jumping from 33^rd place with population of ~42 million residents
• ‘Rush Hour 4’ in the Works at Paramount at Trump’s Request
  

Global stocks rise for a fourth straight day while hopes are growing for a Ukraine peace deal and UK markets were bracing for a long-awaited budget, expected to include
a package of tax hikes. Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that he was ready to advance a US-backed framework for ending the war with Russia and discuss disputed points with President Trump in talks he said should include European allies. Trump said “there are only
a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.” Russia’s Ryabkov said Russia’s proposals on the arms treaty would allow time to
assess the situation and make a decision on strategic dialogue. An early reveal of the budget’s main measures by the OBR caused total chaos ahead of the budget. The OBR report doesn’t normally come until after the budget, so this was highly unusual and the
big reason behind the volatile moves in bonds. UK OBR says the latest Budget now meets the fiscal rule in 2029-30 with a £22B cushion, up from £10B in March.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures nudge higher, helped by rising bets on a Fed rate cut next month and optimistic calls from several strategists ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Also helping the mood
is news that Trump ally Kevin Hassett, who supports further lowering rates, has emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair. JPMorgan strategists expect the S&P 500 to trade around 7,500 by the end of 2026, implying an 11% rally and joining a bullish
chorus on US equities. Meanwhile, Trump directed top negotiators to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss a peace proposal for Ukraine. The US negotiated a 71% discount on Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy for patients on Medicare. HP Inc. shares fell premarket
after its earnings forecast missed estimates and the company said it plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs. Dell rose after it raised its annual outlook for AI servers.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, Ambarella (AMBA) drops 7% after the semiconductor device company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Autodesk (ADSK) rises
8% after the software company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Deere & Co. (DE) is down 4% after the tractor maker’s first outlook for the year ahead fell short of expectations. NetApp (NTAP) rises 5% after the cloud data
services company boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. Nutanix (NTNX) slides 15% after the cloud platform company cut its 2026 revenue forecast. PagerDuty (PD) falls 11% after the cloud computing company issued a disappointing
fourth quarter revenue outlook. Urban Outfitters (URBN) jumps 15% after the apparel company reported net sales for the third quarter that beat. Workday (WDAY) falls 6% after analysts had a mixed reaction to the company’s third-quarter results.

European gauges hold onto gains in choppy trading after the UK’S budget watchdog wrongly released its fiscal report ahead of today’s budget. Chancellor of the Exchequer
Rachel Reeves expanded her key fiscal buffer to £22 billion from £9.9 billion in March, according to the OBR. The expanded fiscal buffer was achieved by raising taxes by £29.8 billion, including new levies on gambling and prime real estate. Among individual
stocks, Elekta shares jumped over 18% after the Swedish medical equipment maker reported better-than expected second-quarter profit. Tiger Brands rose as much as 9.4% after the food producer reported net income for the full year that increased 48% and announced
a special dividend. HBX shares sank 15% following full year 2025 earnings that Citi says came near the lower-end of guidance. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Technology +1.1%, Banks +1%, Insurance +0.8%. Autos -0.9%, Media -0.6%.

Shares in Asia rose, with South Korea and Japan leading broad gains across the region, buoyed by heightened bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The MSCI
Asia Pacific Index jumped 1.4% with TSMC, Samsung Electronics and MediaTek providing the biggest boosts. Shares of Chinese artificial intelligence and optical related stocks extended their multi-day rally on expectations that a reported Meta-Google deal would
spur demand across the supply chain. Taiwan defense and drone stocks advance following reports that the government plans to introduce a supplementary military budget and hold a briefing on drone procurement. Kospi +2.7%, Topix +1.95%, Taiwan +1.85%, Sensex
+1.2%, Vietnam +1.2%, Indonesia +0.9%, ASX 200 +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Hang Seng Index +0.1%. Thailand -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with yields marginally higher versus Tuesday’s closing levels. The focus is on gilts, where price action whipsaws
after the OBR unexpectedly releases key budget figures early, therefore front-running the budget announcement from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. US session focus includes the earlier scheduled 11:30ET 7-year note auction and the latest Fed Beige book release
in the afternoon session. December rate cut expectations strengthened after it emerged that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the leading contender for the next Fed chair — a choice investors see aligning with President Trump’s
push for lower rates. 10-year yield is about 1bps higher with 2s10s roughly flat.

METALS: 

Gold advanced on rising expectations for US interest-rate cuts, with bullion trading near $4,160 an ounce, up by more than 2% so far this week. Deutsche Bank AG and
Goldman Sachs Group have increased their price forecasts for gold next year, with Deutsche Bank raising its forecast to an average of $4,450 an ounce and Goldman Sachs boosting its projection to $4,900 an ounce. Spot gold +0.7%, Silver +1.7%, Copper futures
+1.7%.

ENERGY:   

Oil inches lower after closing at a one-month low as the White House signals that a Ukraine peace agreement may be nearing—potentially lifting sanctions on Russian
supply and adding to pressure in an already oversupplied market. Trump said he directed his representatives to meet separately with Putin and Ukrainian officials. A Ukrainian official said Zelenskiy could visit the US in the next few days to finalize a deal.
Goldman Sachs said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast for brent crude of $56 next year. OPEC+ is expected to keep production quotas unchanged at Sunday’s meeting and instead devote discussions to updating members’ official
capacity estimates, a step needed to guide future output policy, according to three OPEC+ sources. WTI -0.3%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas +2.8%, RBOB +0.2%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the pound initially jumped after projections by the UK fiscal watchdog were released early, setting out a higher fiscal buffer than had been
expected, and confirming the extension of income tax thresholds. Today is spot month-end, and expectations are for US corporate desks to buy the dollar, Europe-based traders said. Antipodean currencies lead G-10 gains following a hawkish interest rate cut
by RBNZ and stronger-than-expected core Australia inflation in October. The kiwi dollar surged as much as 1.4% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, but removed its dovish guidance, signaling an end to the central
bank’s easing cycle. Aussie dollar firmed after a hotter-than-expected inflation report reinforced bets that rate cuts are over for the time being. The Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, sources say.
The yen slipped. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.35%, NZDUSD +0.9%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK ~flat, USDNOK ~flat.

Bitcoin -0.4%, Ethereum -1%.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Atmus Filtration (ATMU) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $60
• Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $375
• Autoliv (ALV) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $140
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $165
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $25
• Zscaler (ZS) Raised to Overweight at Capital One; PT $320
• Downgrades
• Biohaven (BHVN) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $11
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT C$33
• Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
• NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie
• Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $13
• Supervielle (SUPV AR) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Initiations
• Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $47.50
• APA Corp (APA) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Astronics (ATRO) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $65
• Coterra Energy (CTRA) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• G. Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$50
• Kyndryl (KD) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $30
• Old Dominion (ODFL) Rated New Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $114
• Ovintiv (OVV) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• ReAlpha Tech (AIRE) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2
• Saia (SAIA) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $262
• XPO Inc. (XPO) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $156

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke