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Our View

Follow the Money
As we go into the end of November, there is one word that comes to mind: rotation, rotation, rotation. If the rotation is selling the NQ, they are buying the ES or Dow, or, in yesterday’s trade, the RTY, which closed up 2.20%. The other massive rotation is into the pharmaceuticals. Eli Lilly and Co. traded up to six ones, $1,111.11, after hitting its 52-week low of $623.78 on August 8 following weak orforglipron data. Days later, CEO David Ricks bought $1.05M of stock (his first open-market purchase since 2019), joined by other insiders totaling over $3.5M in mid-August buys. The stock has since surged 77% to its all-time high yesterday.

Johnson & Johnson hit its 52-week low of $140.68 on January 10 of this year, the lowest level since late 2020. Since then, the stock has climbed more than 47%, hitting a new all-time intraday high of $207.72 yesterday. Merck & Co. (MRK) reached its 52-week low of $73.31 on May 15, and since that dip, shares have surged over 44%, hitting a new all-time intraday high of $105.84.

The global pharmaceutical sector’s total market cap has increased by approximately $1.025 trillion over the past six months, rising from $5.9T on May 25 to $6.925T as of November 25—a solid 17.4% gain.

Our View
The on-again, off-again 1/4 bps rate cut is back on again! According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for a December 2025 rate cut fell to 42.4% before the dovish speeches by Waller on Nov 17 and Williams on Nov 22, and is now showing 84.9% as of yesterday. The rate cut optimism, combined with the final sessions of November, the constant rotations, and month-end rebalancing, has caught the shorts with their pants down.

Goldman Sachs: How to Build a Global Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade

Passive multi-asset portfolios based on benchmarks have seldom been optimal and may miss out on opportunities in smaller or alternative assets, Goldman Sachs Research finds.

Read the full article here.

Market Recap

What’s the old saying? What goes down must come up? Or is it the other way around? Well, we’re not talking the other way—we’re talking going up, exactly what it’s done since last Friday’s November expiration when the ES hit its 6525.00 low and has now made a 6810.75 high on Globex Tuesday night, up 285.75 points. The NQ, which traded down to 23,905.50, made its high at 25,235.75— up 1,330.25 points, basically in 2.5 sessions.

The ES traded down to 6701.75 on Globex, opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6716.50, and did the exact same thing it did on Monday: ripped 13.5 points up to 6730.00, then sold off down to 6674.50 at 9:50. It rallied 66.75 points up to 6741.25 at 10:45, then traded back down to 6716.50 (the RTH open).

After the pullback, the ES rallied 57.75 points up to 6774.25 at 12:35, pulled back to 6761.75 at 12:55, and then fell into an upward back-and-fill grind until 1:45. The ES made a new RTH high at 6774.75 at 1:45, sold off down to 6757.50 at 2:15, and traded up to another new high of 6787.75 at 3:49. It then traded 6785.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.7 billion to buy, popped up to 6792.50 at 3:54, sold off down to 6781.00 at 3:59, and traded 6780.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded down to 6778.50, flatlined, and settled at 6780.75.

In the end, Tuesday’s trade was a duplicate of Monday’s—an early push up, drop, and then pop. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the ES was firmer than the NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was slightly higher at 1.58 million contracts traded.

On Tap:
8:30 – GDP, Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods
9:45 – Chicago PMI
10:00 – Personal Income, PCE, and New Home Sales
Earnings from John Deere (DE) and Li Auto Inc. (LI), and no Fed speak.

Guest Posts

 Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Wild-Card Warfare, Buy-Throttle Jammed Forward

Today’s session delivered the full CD3 “wild-card” personality: early bruising, mid-day balancing, and a late-day bull stampede that refused to take its foot off the gas. If Monday was momentum entrenched, Tuesday was momentum caffeinated.

If you came into today expecting a typical CD3 “Wild-Card” session, congratulations — Today’s tape didn’t just swing — it whipped, snapped, buckled, and dragged traders across the floor like a barroom brawl at closing time.

Range was 118 handles on 1.569M contracts exchanged

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 11.25.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Post-Super-Cycle Cooldown (Maybe)

With the Super Cycle fireworks officially in the books — a blistering 302.39% gain (+267.50 pts) from Cycle Structure — and price closing near the highs with unmistakable pre-holiday juice, Cycle Day 1 steps onto the stage.

Statistically, CD1 carries the potential for declines toward 6754… but only if the bulls loosen their iron grip. If they keep the throttle pinned, bears may be forced to spend Thanksgiving nibbling on leftovers instead of fresh downside.

This is a full trading session leading into a half-day Fryday to close out the month, as market participants mentally pre-load the tryptophan and take a brief timeout to give thanks for the year’s blessings.

Programming Note

PTG will be taking a well-deserved Fryday off to extend the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

To the entire PTG community — your loyalty, energy, and steady support means the world. I’m deeply grateful for each of you.

Wishing you an abundant Thanksgiving, Health, Wealth, and Prosperity for many years to come.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6780+-, initially targets 6805 – 6810 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6780+-, initially targets 6765 – 6755 zone.

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM

MOC Recap

The market-on-close flow by 15:51 showed +$2.2B to buy, driven by a massive $4.3B wave of buy interest against $2.05B in sells. This was the peak moment of demand, with the buy-lean percentages above 67%, suggesting broad-based accumulation rather than isolated block prints.

From 15:52 through 15:54, buy flows cooled but remained elevated, running between $3.1B and $3.7B. These were still decisive numbers, and the percentage-of-symbols leaning buy stayed above 57%. This phase reflected rotation rather than a wholesale trend — healthy two-way activity but still net-positive.

The turn came at 15:55. As price began to soften, the imbalance flipped negative to –$907M. This was the start of a steady unwind, with sell pressure holding between –$2.0B and –$2.8B from 15:55 to 15:58. Notably, symbol-lean percentages pushed below –50%, confirming real rotation out of prior buy-side strength. The heaviest selling hit at 15:56 with –$2.75B in sells and nearly 60% of symbols leaning negative — approaching wholesale liquidation thresholds.

By 15:59, the imbalance shrank to a mild +$255M buy, but this was mechanical end-of-window rebalancing rather than new conviction.

Price action confirmed the flow. After an early spike matching the 15:51 buy surge, prices faded in tandem with the shift to negative imbalance at 15:55, tracking the rise in sell programs and the steady bleed in buy volume.

In sector terms, the early bid centered on broad index components — a classic basket-driven rotation — while the later selling was more diffuse, matching ETF-driven outflows rather than sector-specific blows.

Overall, the session opened with accumulation, transitioned into sustained rotation, and closed with coordinated sell programs dominating the final minutes.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for November 26, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, November 21, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Market Context:
Cycle Day 3 – dubbed a “wild-card” day – lived up to its name with intense volatility and strong directional movement. Despite early chaos, the bulls took full control, pushing the market into a sharp rally by the close.

Key Trade Setups & Execution

Setup #2 (Support Buy: 6674–6678 ES)
This was the standout play of the session.

Lesson: When structure, delta, and tape align — don’t hesitate. Setup #2 exemplified preparation meeting opportunity.

Market Conditions & Challenges

Bull Control in the Afternoon

Key Takeaways & Lessons Learned

Summary:

A high-energy, high-opportunity day.
Despite volatility and platform issues, PTG traders capitalized on well-defined zones. The standout Setup #2 gave clean, fast profits, while the bulls ran the show into the close. Traders who stayed nimble and disciplined thrived.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!