TODAY’S GAME PLAN:
from the trading desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: No Data or Fed Speakers for Today
Highlights and News:
- CME Says All CME Group Markets Are Open and Trading After Outage.
- CME Group halted trading across FX, commodities, Treasuries, and equity futures overnight due to a “cooling issue” at its CyrusOne
data centers, suspending all Globex futures and options and leaving dealers to manage risk without key benchmark prints.
EQUITIES:
US index futures are modestly higher into the shortened Black Friday cash open, as CME Group
brings key futures and options markets back online after a high‑profile data‑center outage that froze pricing across equity, rates, FX, and commodity complexes.
The Magnificent Seven are all firmer pre‑market with gains of roughly 0.3–1.1%. CNH Industrial slips after a downgrade tied to a softer ag‑equipment outlook, and Tilray Brands sinks double‑digits after announcing a one‑for‑ten reverse split, setting up a session
where index levels look calm but single‑name dispersion remains elevated into month‑end. Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, DJI +0.1%
Asian equities ended the week mixed, with the MSCI Asia ex‑Japan gauge still on track for a solid weekly gain even as today’s session felt like a consolidation
after a sharp Fed‑cut‑driven rebound; Chinese blue chips were marginally softer while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eked out a small rise, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was roughly flat but on pace for a >3% weekly advance, and South Korea’s Kospi lagged as foreign selling
in large‑cap tech and lingering macro uncertainty kept the won under pressure, all against a backdrop of Fed funds futures pricing an 85% chance of a U.S. rate cut next month and Tokyo core CPI surprising to the upside, which preserved market expectations
for a potential Bank of Japan hike in the coming meetings.
European equities were little changed but remain on course for a fifth straight month of gains, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up around 0.5–0.6% in November
and roughly 13% year‑to‑date as resilient earnings and stable growth continue to offset valuation concerns. Sector‑wise, energy names outperformed while travel and leisure lagged, and volumes stayed muted following the CME Group outage that disrupted U.S.
futures trading, even as individual movers like Delivery Hero SE and easyJet plc responded sharply to deal chatter and broker upgrades against a backdrop where Fed rate‑cut expectations and subdued but positive macro data keep the regional rally intact.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries traded sideways into the shortened Black Friday session, with the 10‑year hovering just under the 4% handle and most maturities within a basis point
of Wednesday’s close as markets digested the lingering impact of the CME Group outage. IG dollar issuance was subdued and left curves marginally richer from the belly out, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s while dealers looked ahead to a lighter‑than‑normal December
supply slate and an upcoming Fed meeting where futures continue to lean toward additional easing into early 2026.
METALS:
Gold traded volatile and liquidity thinned after a major CME Group outage froze futures and options contracts tied to Comex, forcing traders to use workarounds
and call brokers by phone as price discovery diverged from spot trading in London; the disruption hit as gold was on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain and best annual performance since 1979, supported by strong central-bank buying, persistent ETF
inflows.
ENERGY:
Oil prices were lower, with Brent holding just above the mid‑$60s and West Texas Intermediate near the high‑$50s as the complex heads for a fourth straight monthly
loss, pressured by a growing 2026 glut narrative and only modest buying interest on dips. Traders are focused on Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting—where delegates signal a likely pause in planned 2026 output hikes—and on Washington’s push for a Ukraine peace
framework that could eventually loosen sanctions‑constrained Russian barrels to key buyers such as China, India, and Turkey, while the recent CME Group
CURRENCIES:
The Dollar held in a tight range overnight, down about 0.6% on the week and on track for its weakest weekly performance since July as markets head into the FOMC
blackout with December cut odds hovering near 80% and only a flicker higher in front‑end Treasury yields offering support. In G‑10, USDJPY softened after Tokyo core inflation held at 2.8% and industrial output surprised to the upside—keeping a potential Bank
of Japan hike in play for December or January—while EURUSD eased slightly ahead of remarks from ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel and survey data on inflation expectations, and NZD/USD consolidated just below 0.5730 but is still set for its best week
since April as upbeat domestic data and improved risk sentiment support the kiwi into month‑end.
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
Dan Forsythe CMT
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