TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 10:00ET:
FED’s Bowman to speak, Total Vehicle Sales to be released throughout the day
Highlights and News:
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Apple AI head John Giannandrea is stepping down and will leave the company in the spring
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Samsung unveils its first trifold smartphone which can transform into a larger, tablet-sized device
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Costco sues Trump administration seeking tariff refunds before Supreme Court rules if they’re illegal
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Michael Dell and his wife Susan have committed $6.25 billion to seed tax-advantaged “Trump accounts” for millions of U.S. children
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Netflix made a mostly cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery in a second round of binding bids
Global stocks edged higher as envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. Gains in world stock indexes and Bitcoin put a halt
to Monday’s slide on risky assets, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve for a likely rate cut at next week’s meeting. Investors are maintaining a wait-and-see strategy as earnings and AI sentiment remain strong and the OECD says the world economy is
weathering Trump’s trade tariffs better than expected. While off to a shaky start, December has historically been a strong month for equities with the S&P index experiencing an advance 73% of the time
EQUITIES:
US equity futures are higher after a boost from technology and data stocks and risk-off sentiment eased overnight and Bitcoin holding steady. With the Fed in blackout
period and absence of other major catalysts, traders look to economic data later this week, including PMI and initial jobless claims to shape final expectations before next week’s December rate decision. While Black Friday shopping showed record online spending,
Salesforce data showed Cyber Monday shopping grew more slowly in the US than Europe for the first time as tariffs impacted American shoppers. After Monday’s pullback, stocks appear set to resume last week’s market rebound which left US equity short sellers
down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses, or roughly 4.8% in the final week of November.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.05%
In pre-market trading, Credo Technology (CRDO) rises 18% after the communications equipment company’s second-quarter results came in much stronger than expected. MongoDB (MDB)
rallies 23% after the database software company reported stronger-than-expected results, t also raised its full-year forecast. Solaris Energy Infrastructure Inc. (SEI) rises 4% after the data center power generator was initiated at Morgan Stanley with a recommendation
of overweight on power supply demand.
European gauges are higher with strong performances from banking stocks after Euro-area inflation rose to 2.2% in November, up from the previous month. Media, miners,
and telecom stocks were among the worst performing in the region. Topps Tiles experienced its largest drop in five years after annual results showed growth moderated due to weaker consumer confidence. Meanwhile, shares of Bayer AG are up nearly 12% after the
Trump administration recommended the Supreme Court agree to hear Bayer’s challenge to a $1.25 million Missouri jury verdict over Roundup on the grounds some of the claims were preempted by federal law. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.3%.
Shares in Asia advanced behind tech gains in South Korea and Taiwan. South Korean indexes rose after strong performances from semiconductor and auto stocks after Howard
Lutnick said the US will lower its general tariff rate on South Korean imports to 15% retroactive to November first. Samsung Electronics (+3.4%) and SK Hynix (4.6%) were among the biggest contributors to the region’s performance. Meanwhile, benchmarks in China
and India are lower. Chinese airline and automakers dropped as scheduled flights and sales growth slumped. Shares in India dropped as the rupee hits a record low over concerns of a lack of trade deal with the US. Kospi +1.9%, Topix +0.01%, Taiwan +0.8%, Sensex
-0.6%, Vietnam +0.9%, Indonesia +0.8%, ASX 200 +0.2%, CSI 300 -0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%. Thailand +0.01%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with yields marginally higher versus Monday’s close, extending the move after an across-the-curve selloff sparked
by BOJ Governor Ueda hinting at a possible December rate hike — a notable shift as Japan has been one of the biggest liquidity providers to the global economy. German yields are fractionally higher on the day after euro-area inflation numbers. US rate cut
expectations have continued to firm, with the market now pricing roughly a 90% chance of a Fed cut at the December 10 meeting, up from about 70% a month ago. Fed speak is also in focus today, with FOMC member Bowman scheduled to speak at 10:00ET.
METALS:
Precious metals sold off overnight as investors took profits following silver’s record high of $56.5 per ounce on Monday, with gold falling to $4,182 and silver retreating around 1% after
technical indicators showed the six-day rally had pushed silver into overbought territory. Silver has gain 98% YtD, marking its best year since 1979.
ENERGY:
Oil has been grinding lower since the October 22–23 spike driven by sanctions on Russian oil companies, and in the absence of any fresh catalyst it continued to edge
down overnight. Natural gas has surged to two-year highs near $4.83/mmbtu, driven by colder-than-expected December forecasts across the Midwest and Northeast that are boosting heating demand and record U.S. LNG exports tightening domestic supply into withdrawal
season, with prices now screening overbought on the weekly
WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas +0.6%, RBOB -0.8%.
CURRENCIES:
In currency markets, the US dollar index is on track for a second straight day of gains as expectations for a December rate cut continue to grow. The Japanese yen
dips against the US dollar despite a strong 10-year JGB auction as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate cut appear to be priced in. The Euro remains flat against the dollar as higher inflation supports the ECB’s stance of keeping borrowing costs steady. The
Australian dollar is lower against peers with the possibility for an RBA rate cut no longer expected in the first half of 2026.
US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.07%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.3%.
Bitcoin +1.0%, Ethereum +1.6%.
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
- Upgrades
- Albemarle (ALB)
Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $113 - Bausch + Lomb (BLCO
CN) Bausch + Lomb Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT C$29.41 - Belite Bio (BLTE)
ADRs Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities - Darling Ingredients (DAR)
Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $45 - Dexcom (DXCM)
Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75 - Pennant Group (PNTG)
Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $34 - Six Flags (FUN)
Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $23 - Solventum (SOLV)
Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $100 - T-Mobile (TMUS)
Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc - Teradyne (TER)
Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $225 - Downgrades
- 10X Genomics (TXG)
Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley - Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL
MM) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $98 - Inspire Medical (INSP)
Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $130 - PagerDuty (PD)
Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $12 - Sound Point Meridian
Capital (SPMC) US Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer - Symbotic (SYM)
Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $47 - Initiations
- Annexon (ANNX)
Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $17 - BlackLine (BL)
Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $65 - C4 Therapeutics (CCCC)
Rated New Buy at TD Cowen - California Resources (CRC)
Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $58 - Caris Life Sciences (CAI)
Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT $28 - CBRE (CBRE)
Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $190 - Circle Internet (CRCL)
Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $60 - Cloudflare (NET)
Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $235 - Cushman & Wakefield (CWK)
Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $18 - Danaher (DHR)
Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $270 - Equinox Gold (EQX
CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$24 - FuboTV (FUBO)
Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James - Inventiva SACA (IVA
FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT $19 - Jones Lang (JLL)
Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $351 - KBR (KBR)
Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $60 - Kinetik (KNTK)
Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $41 - Mettler-Toledo (MTD)
Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley - Millrose Properties (MRP)
Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $35 - Newmark (NMRK)
Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $21 - Nova (NVMI)
Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $335 - OneStream (OS)
Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $26 - Pecoy Copper (PCU
CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$2 - Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)
Rated New Neutral at BTIG - Solaris Energy (SEI)
Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $68 - T1 Energy (TE)
Rated New Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $8 - Tamboran Resources (TBN)
Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35 - Terra Innovatum Global (NKLR)
Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $10 - Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $1,050 - Waters (WAT)
Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $423 - West Pharma (WST)
Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $285 - Workday (WDAY)
Rated New Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $235
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingView
Bryan Duong
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