Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 5, 2025

 

TODAY’S GAME PLAN: 
from the trading desk, this is not research

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:

 

Highlights and News: 10:00ET Personal Income and Spending, PCE Price
Index, UMichigan Sentiment

  • Elon Musk’s X hit with €120M EU fine for content law breaches
  • Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros Discovery’s TV and film studios and streaming division for $72 billion
  • Cloudflare shares dropped premarket after a brief outage affected sites such as Downdetector and Coinbase. The company said a fix was implemented
  • Edinburgh Airport is halting all flights in and out due to an IT issue with its air traffic control provider
  • OpenAI Faces $140 Billion In Losses Before It Turns $1 In Profit
  • US Plans More Stakes in Minerals Companies, Trump Official Says

Global stocks climbed ahead of key US inflation data. While September’s PCE Price Index has been delayed due to the government shutdown, it remains the last
key inflation data point prior to the Fed’s rate cut meeting next week. The scope of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have grown more complex as the US lobbied several countries in the European Union to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central
bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine. The US also has signaled it wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO’s defense capabilities, providing a deadline of 2027 which European officials see as unrealistic.

 

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures are higher, continuing the week’s rally and setting the stage for their first
back-to-back weekly gain since October. The S&P 500 index is primed for a strong open, flirting with all-time highs amidst tech gains and improving sentiment on the overall economic strength of the country. While a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting is largely
priced in, key PCE inflation data today may change the tone from Jerome Powell and shape attitudes for early 2026 interest rates.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.36%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.1%    

In pre-market trading, Netflix (NFLX) slips 1.3% after agreeing to buy Warner Bros. Discovery
Inc. in a historic combination, joining the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s oldest and most revered studios. Shares of Warner Bros. (WBD) are up 1.5%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) drops 8% after the company gave an outlook
for sales in the current quarter that fell short of high expectations for the AI server business. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is down 7% after the online lender’s offering of 54.5m shares. Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) rises 6% after raising its full-year outlook and
reporting better-than-expected results in the third quarter, a sign that consumers are overcoming any reluctance to spend and shelling out for cosmetics and hair supplies. Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) climbs 12% after the company reported better-than-expected
sales and lifted its outlook for the year, a sign that its turnaround strategy is working.

 

European gauges are higher for a fourth straight day after the region saw increased domestic
demand and strong factory orders. Third quarter eurozone demand helped the economy grow 0.3% from the previous three months, more than the initial 0.2% estimate from Eurostat. German factory orders surged 87% in October, with demand for large-scale orders
such as aircrafts and vehicles driving the growth. Financial services, autos and construction are leading gains while energy is a drag after downgrades in the sector from JPMorgan. The strong economic performance and surprising resiliency to US tariff disruptions
has the regional benchmark at its highest level in three weeks. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.1%.

 

 

Benchmarks in Asia closed higher for the session after reversing early losses. Japan was the
biggest laggard as both major indexes finished down over 1% despite small gains in the tech sector. Shares in China and South Korea rose with strength in industrials and automotive industries. Hyundai Motor advanced over 11% to a record high on optimism they
will be a winner in the US push for robotics technology. Chinese aluminum stocks advanced, buoyed by record prices and strong demand for the metal. Significant interest in domestic chipmakers lead Chinese AI chipmaker, Moore Threads, to surge as much as 502%
in debut trading after its IPO. Stocks in India also gained after their central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in six months and signaled its open to further easing. Kospi +1.8%, Topix -1.0%, Taiwan +0.7%, Vietnam +0.2%, Indonesia
~flat, ASX 200 +0.2%, CSI 300 +0.8%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%. Thailand -0.1%.

 

 

FIXED INCOME:   

 

Treasury yields rose 3-5bps across the curve overnight, with the 10-year back near 4.11%. The level matches a 12/02 high before the weak ADP print as strong jobless claims and
softer Challenger layoff announcements prompted markets to fade Wednesday’s dovish read. The data reinforced a “no-hire, no-fire” narrative of a labor market that’s slowing but not breaking, leading traders to dial back expectations for aggressive Fed easing
into the December 10 meeting in favor of a more gradual cut path. In Japan, JGBs saw a curve-steepening move overnight. The 2-year yield jumped to around 1.04% and the 10-year to roughly 1.94%, their highest levels since 2008 and 2007 as markets price in a
December BOJ rate hike. In contrast, the 30-year yield eased to about 3.35%, underscoring solid demand for duration even as the front end reprices higher.

 

 

 

 

METALS: 

 

 

In metals, prices firmed overnight with gold up over 0.4%. Silver rebounded nearly 2% as it claws back part of yesterday’s sharp selloff, and copper extended its recent run
higher on continued strength and bullish positioning, including a fresh Citi call for prices to reach $13,000/ton by Q2. Spot gold +0.46%, Silver +1.76%, LME Copper futures +2.12%.

 

 

 

ENERGY:  

 

In energy, US natural gas reversed earlier losses to close back above $5 and at a new 52-week high. Colder mid-December forecasts across the eastern two-thirds of the country
are driving the price movement despite a smaller-than-expected storage draw. Crude, by contrast, slipped modestly overnight with WTI and Brent giving back part of Thursday’s geopolitics-driven gain as the market refocused on a bearish fundamental backdrop.
Forecasts for a sizable global surplus and lower long-term price targets underscores the divergence between weather-driven gas strength and soft oil sentiment. WTI -0.01%, Brent +0.02%, US Nat Gas +3.5%, RBOB +0.1%. 

 

 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

 

In currencies, the dollar was essentially flat in a quiet overnight session, with DXY hovering near five-week lows around 99 as FX vols sink to year-to-date lows
and traders wait on PCE. The action was in antipodeans, where AUD ticked to its highest level since October on renewed RBA hike chatter after stronger wage and spending data, while NZD firmed alongside on broader USD softness and ongoing optimism that the
RBNZ has room to stay patient before any future tightening cycle. US$ Index ~flat (+0.02%), GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD ~flat (+0.03%), JPY -0.07%, AUDUSD +0.42%, NZDUSD +0.30%, CHFUSD +0.05%, CADUSD -0.17%, SEKUSD -0.15%, NOKUSD -0.10%.

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin -0.94%, Ethereum -0.19%.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

 

  • Upgrades
    • APA Corp (APA) Raised to Accumulate at Johnson Rice; PT $40
    • Barrick Mining (ABX CN) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT C$69.74
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $78
    • Corpay (CPAY) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $380
    • Cosan (CSAN3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $5
    • Diversified Energy (DEC) Raised to Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $23
    • Five Below (FIVE) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $187
    • Humana (HUM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $313
    • MP Materials (MP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $71
    • National Storage (NSA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Rollins (ROL) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $72
    • Rubrik (RBRK) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Unity Software (U) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $51
  • Downgrades
    • Adecco (ADEN SW) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $14.50
    • AIG (AIG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $88
    • Atlantic Union (AUB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • Conoco (COP) Cut to Hold at Johnson Rice; PT $105
    • Kosmos Energy (KOS) Cut to Accumulate at Johnson Rice; PT $3.50
    • Mid-America (MAA) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $142
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $97
    • Robert Half (RHI) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $22
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $82
  • Initiations
    • Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $90
    • Balchem (BCPC) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $162
    • BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) US Rated New Overweight at Morgan
      Stanley; PT $20
    • Centrus Energy (LEU) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $357
    • Citigroup (C) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $110
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMC CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Highlander Silver (HSLV CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$5.50
    • Hub Group (HUBG) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
    • Landstar (LSTR) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $145
    • New Pacific Holdings (NUAG CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$6
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $135
    • Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $167
    • Ramaco (METC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17.50
    • Ryder (R) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $210
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $322
    • Seagate (STX) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $325
    • Teva (TEVA IT) ADRs Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $35
    • TriNet Group (TNET) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $62
    • Vital Farms (VITL) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $45
    • Western Digital (WDC) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $193

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingView

 

 

Bryan Duong

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