Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 8, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   11:00ET FED 1yr-Inflation expectations; 1:00ET $58 billion 3-year note auction

Highlights and News:  

  • Europe Leaders to Meet Zelenskiy Today to Discuss US-led Peace Talks
  • Zelenskiy Says No Accord So Far on Eastern Ukraine in US Talks
  • China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion after exports rebound
  • Trump Warns Netflix-Warner Deal May Pose Antitrust ‘Problem’
  • Trump plans to unveil a $12 billion farm aid package today
  • Hamas is ready to discuss “freezing or storing” its weapons as part of a ceasefire deal
  • Thailand launched airstrikes on Cambodian military sites

 

Global stocks steadied as markets bet that the Federal Reserve would deliver a rate cut this week. A 25bp cut is fully priced in, but the key risk is whether the
messaging signals a ‘hawkish cut.’ Central banks in Canada, Switzerland and Australia also meet this week and all are poised to hold rates steady. The Swiss National Bank might like to ease again to offset the strength of its franc but is already at 0% and
reluctant to go negative. On the data front, China’s annual trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, despite a plunge in shipments to the US, with exports rising 5.9% from a year earlier. Japan’s economy shrank in the three months through September,
with gross domestic product falling at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the third quarter, backing up PM Takaichi’s stimulus package. Meanwhile, President Zelenskiy stated that negotiators involved in a US-brokered peace proposal continue to disagree on territorial
issues, as President Trump voiced frustration with Kyiv’s approach to the agreement. Elements of the US plan require further discussion on a number of “sensitive issues,” including security guarantees and control over eastern regions, Zelenskiy said in a phone
interview.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures edge higher as stocks neared their October record highs. Big events this week include the Fed meeting — where a rate cut is widely expected on Wednesday — and earnings
from Oracle and Broadcom, which may provide an end-of-year test for the AI narrative. The recent equity rally could stall after the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut as investors move to take profits, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase. Goldman Sachs
predicts that US middle-income consumer stocks will outperform in the coming months, supported by currently attractive valuations and expected revenue improvement starting in early 2026. In corporate news, Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix’s
planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. IBM is in advanced negotiations to acquire data infrastructure firm Confluent for around $11 billion, the WSJ reported. There are no major earnings due this morning.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.01%

In pre-market trading, Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) falls 3% after saying that the FDA has not yet issued a regulatory decision on the supplemental new drug application
for mitapivat in thalassemia. Carvana (CVNA) rises 9%, CRH (CRH) gains 7% and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 1% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Dec. 22. Confluent (CFLT) is up 28% after the Wall Street
Journal reported IBM is to acquire the data infrastructure firm for $31/share. CoreWeave (CRWV) drops 5% after announcing a $2 billion convertible senior notes offering. Fluence Energy (FLNC) falls 4% after Mizuho Securities analysts cut the recommendation
to underperform. ITT (ITT) slips 3% after plans to sell 7 million shares to help fund a portion of its SPX Flow deal. Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) rises 29% after the drug developer announced positive results from a Phase 1b clinical trial.

European gauges are mixed in subdued trading as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of an expected Fed’s interest-rate cut later this week, while digesting
hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. Isabel Schnabel said she’s comfortable with investor bets that the ECB’s next interest-rate move will be an increase. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as gains in industrial and insurance shares are offset by
losses in consumer products and chemicals. German industrial production rose much more than anticipated, supporting assumptions that the economy will return to growth in the final quarter of 2025. Kloeckner shares climbed as much as 27% in Germany, after the
firm said Worthington Steel was conducting due diligence for a potential takeover of the German metals company. Galderma rose to a record high after L’Oreal announced plans to double its stake in the Swiss dermatology firm to 20%. Schott Pharma shares fell
as much as 6.8% to the lowest level on record after analyst downgrades at Barclays and Deutsche Bank.  Stoxx 600 -0.05%, DAX +0.2%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Defense +1.1%, Industrials +0.5%, Insurance +0.3%. Food & Bev -0.9%, Household goods -0.9%, Luxury
-0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, powered by gains in Taiwan and South Korea while equities fell in Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for a fifth straight
day, gaining 0.2%. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts while Chinese tech names including Tencent and Alibaba slid. SK Hynix shares jumped in Seoul amid speculation that it will soon sell ADRs. Chinese indices gained as data showed the
country’s exports topped forecasts in November and stayed resilient in the face of US tariffs. Stocks gained in mainland China following weekend reports that China’s authorities are working on increasing leverage limit for brokerages, along with other measures
that may spur inflows into onshore equities. India’s benchmarks slumped, with the banks and real estate shares among the worst performers. Defense stocks rose in Tokyo after a Chinese fighter jet locked fire-control radar on Japanese military aircraft. Kospi
+1.3%, Taiwan +1.1%, Indonesia +0.9%, CSI 300 +0.8%, Vietnam +0.7%, Topix +0.6%. ASX 200 -0.1%, Singapore -0.5%, Sensex -0.7%, Thailand -1%, Hang Seng Index -1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, following larger losses for European bonds after ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said she’s “rather comfortable”
with investors betting its next interest-rate move will be a hike. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, with 10- and 30-year reopenings ahead Tuesday and Thursday, bookending Wednesday’s Fed rate decision.  US yields are 1bp-2bp higher on
the day, keeping curve spreads within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels; the 10-year near 4.15% is higher by about 1bp. US economic calendar includes November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11:00ET.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadied ahead of growing expectations of a US interest rate cut mid-week. CME’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut
at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, driven by recent soft economic data and dovish comments from multiple Fed officials. Meanwhile, the PBOC added to its gold reserves for a 13th month, adding 30,000 troy ounces in November. Spot gold +0.25%, Silver
-0.2%, Copper futures -0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices declined as investors monitored ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine. Oil eased after three days of gains as traders monitored India’s buying of Russian
crude and Ukrainian strikes on its neighbor’s energy facilities. The focus on Moscow’s flows comes as a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia also remained in focus. Zelenskiy is set to meet with European leaders in London today. Progress on Ukraine
peace talks remains slow, with disputes over security guarantees for Kyiv and the status of Russian-occupied territory still unresolved. WTI -1.2%, Brent -1.1%, US Nat Gas -4.5%, RBOB -1.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar trades mixed and within narrow ranges against major currencies, with volumes light as markets braced for the Federal Reserve’s policy
decision later this week. Investors also weighed remarks by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he expects inflation to “roll down strongly” next year. A highly divided committee makes for a wild card announcement. Besides the Fed decision on Wednesday,
the central banks of Australia, Brazil, Canada and Switzerland also hold rate-setting meetings, although none of these are expected to make any changes to monetary policy. Unlike the Fed, the ECB is not expected to cut rates again in the coming year. Influential
policymaker Isabel Schnabel said today that the central bank’s next move could even be a hike. The euro edged higher as she also said that the hike would not be “anytime soon.”  US$ Index ~flat, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD
+0.1%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.8%, Ethereum +1.4%.  

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Canadian Pacific Kansas (CP CN) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Raised to Sector Perform at RBC
    • Champion Homes (SKY) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $100
    • CNX Resources (CNX) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Compass (COMP) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $13
    • Devon (DVN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $70
    • Exxon (XOM) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $114
    • Five Below (FIVE) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $216
    • Generac (GNRC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $200
    • General Motors (GM) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $90
    • Incyte (INCY) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $121
    • Inspire Medical (INSP) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $175
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $215
    • Jefferies (JEF) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $78
    • KB Home (KBH) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
    • Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB CN) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC
    • Mastercard (MA) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $633
    • Oklo (OKLO) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $150
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $190
    • Primaris REIT (PMZ-U CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$18
    • Quanta Services (PWR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $515
    • Ralliant (RAL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $61
    • SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Thermo Fisher (TMO) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $750
    • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $725
    • Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $52
    • Visa (V) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $389
  • Downgrades
    • 3M Co (MMM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $178
    • Amrize (AMRZ SW) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $60
    • Antero Resources (AR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$40
    • Evercore (EVR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $373
    • Ferrari (RACE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $425
    • Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $15
    • Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$16
    • Lennar (LEN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $98
    • Lucid (LCID) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
    • Masco (MAS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Hold at Pivotal; PT $105
    • Nice Ltd (NICE IT) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $120
    • Occidental (OXY) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Peoples Financial (PFIS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $50
    • Pinterest (PINS) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $30
    • Primoris Services (PRIM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $143
    • Range Resources (RRC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $39
    • Rivian (RIVN) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
    • Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $425
    • WP Carey (WPC) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $69
  • Initiations
    • Air France-KLM (AF FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $1.25
    • Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Blue Owl Technology Fina (OTF) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • BrightSpring (BTSG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Brunswick (BC) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $90
    • Canaan (CAN) ADRs Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $3
    • Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Rated New Market Perform at Citizens
    • Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Customers Bancorp (CUBI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • EasyJet (EZJ LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $10
    • HeartBeam (BEAT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2.50
    • IAG (IAG LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $14.50
    • Integra (ITR CN) Reinstated Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$7.95
    • James Hardie (JHX AU) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $21
    • Lufthansa (LHA GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $11.50
    • Main Street (MAIN) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $70
    • Matador Resources (MTDR) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $53
    • Okyo Pharma (OKYO) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $5
    • OneMain (OMF) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $75
    • Pasithea Therapeutics (KTTA) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3
    • Pennant Group (PNTG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Ryanair (RYA ID) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $86
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $235
    • South Bow (SOBO CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT C$37.31
    • Trinity Capital (TRIN) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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