Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET US 3Q Employment Cost Index; 9:45ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision; 2:00ET FOMC rate
decision; 2:30ET Fed Chair Powell’s presser

Highlights and News:  

  • SpaceX said to be moving ahead with plans for potentially the biggest listing of all time
  • IMF UPGRADES FORECASTS FOR CHINA, URGES BOLDER STIMULUS TO REBALANCE ECONOMY, TRADE
  • ZELENSKIY SAYS CHINA IS TAKING STEPS TO INTENSIFY COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA
  • DeepSeek Used Banned Nvidia Chips for AI, The Information
  • Illinois enacts immigration protections amid Trump crackdowns
  • US holds first Gulf of Mexico oil and gas auction since 2023

 

World stocks eased as global bond yields climbed to levels not seen since 2009 ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy meeting, reflecting investor worries that cycles
of interest rate reductions could soon come to an end. Bond yields in Japan to Germany have also climbed to multi-year highs, with longer-dated debt under most pressure due to the prospects for greater debt issuance. IMF officials urged Chinese policymakers
to adopt bolder stimulus to boost consumption and allow more exchange rate flexibility. China’s annual consumer inflation rose to its highest level in 21 months, fueled primarily by surging food prices, as factory-gate deflation intensified. Underlying indicators
point to persistently weak domestic demand, with little prospect of a near-term recovery. Indonesia is resisting US trade-deal demands that it fears would restrain its independence, particularly in critical minerals and energy that risk its relations with
China and Russia. France’s efforts to adopt a budget could roll into next year due to divisions among lawmakers and senators.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slightly lower ahead of a tricky Fed meeting and Oracle and Broadcom earnings results due after the bell, with investors increasingly concerned about high leverage
and an AI bubble. Sentiment remains muted as traders await policy signals from the Fed for the coming year. The FOMC is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points and wait several meetings before another move. SpaceX is
said to be pushing on with plans for an IPO, targeting a valuation of about $1.5 trillion for the entire company. Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has used Nvidia chips that are banned in the country to develop an upcoming AI model, according
to a new report in The Information. Holiday shoppers grabbing PlayStations, Xboxes and Switch 2s may not notice the consoles now say “Made in Vietnam,” not China — a swift supply-chain shift sparked by tariffs.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.02%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, AeroVironment (AVAV) slips 4.3% after the drone maker cut its yearly adjusted earnings per share outlook. Biogen shares (BIIB) dip 1.9% after
HSBC cut the drugmaker to reduce. Chewy shares (CHWY) fall 3% after the online retailer of pet products forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed. EchoStar shares (SATS) rise 3.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight
from equal-weight. GameStop (GME) slides 5.8% after the video-game retailer reported net sales for the third quarter that declined nearly 5% year-over-year. GE Vernova shares (GEV) rally 10% after the power equipment company boosted buybacks and dividends,
presented 2026 financial guidance and raised its longer-term outlook. Oil-field services and equipment stocks (HP +1.2%, PUMP +3.4%, RIG -1.4%) are mixed after JPMorgan re-rated stocks, citing upstream spending headwinds and some growth opportunities. Photronics
(PLAB) gains 24% after the semiconductor supplier forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat.

European gauges are mixed, with miners and energy sectors outperforming while autos and defense lag. Abivax shares jump as much as 19% to a record amid speculation
around a takeover of the biotechnology company. Nordex gains ~7% after the wind turbine maker announced a new conditional order in the US. Delivery Hero shares climb 11% as the firm weighs options to improve its finances and operations. Cicor shares slump
as much as 29%, the most since 2001, after it cut its guidance. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.5%.  Basic Resources +1.3%, Healthcare +0.9%, energy +0.7%. Luxury -1%, Autos -1%, Defense -0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 0.3%, with SK Hynix providing a boost after the Korean chipmaker said it’s exploring the possibility of listing shares in the US. TSMC’s revenue jumped 24.5% to $11 billion, signaling sustained momentum in AI infrastructure buildouts. Chinese shares fell
as quickening CPI and stronger than expected factory-price declines hurt profit outlooks. Onshore and offshore stocks narrowed earlier losses as property shares gained in the afternoon on speculation of new policy stimulus. Chinese retail stocks rallied after
Beijing calls for prioritizing the retail industry as a key driver to boosting domestic demand. Taiwan +0.8%, Indonesia +0.5%, Hang Seng Tech +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.4%, Topix +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.1%, CSI 300 -0.1%, Kospi -0.2%, Philippines -0.3%, Sensex -0.3%,
Vietnam -1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper ahead of the Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver a third consecutive cut. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are hovering
around the highest levels since September at 4.19%. 2-year yield +3bps around 3.65%. Yields on 30-year Treasuries have risen back to multi-month highs as investors anticipate a less favorable outlook for monetary policy, inflation, and fiscal discipline. Strategists
at JPMorgan recommend buying US Treasury 2-year notes at yields around 3.60%, seeing scope for a rally to potentially below 3.30% during Q1.

 

METALS: 

Gold inches lower as investors awaited clarity on US interest rate outlook. Spot gold is steady around $4,200, while silver gains nearly 1% before paring gains while
hitting a record above $61 an ounce. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver +0.5%, Copper futures +1.6%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied, having lost ground early in the week when Iraq restored production at Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world’s largest. Meanwhile,
markets are expecting the Fed to reduce its main interest rate by a quarter of a point today to support a cooling labor market. Lower interest rates could lift oil demand by boosting economic growth, but gains were capped by concern that supply could outpace
demand. The Trump administration will hold the government’s first sale of oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico since 2023 today, a key test of industry appetite for offshore leases at a time when the US is seeking to unleash more domestic fossil
fuel production. US gasoline stockpiles jumped by 7 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would be the biggest gain in almost a year if confirmed by the EIA today. WTI +0.2%, Brent +0.15%, US Nat Gas -1.9%, RBOB -0.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision later today, as investors anticipate an interest rate cut following one of the most
contentious policy debates in years. The BOC will probably hold rates steady today amid mounting evidence that the country’s labor market and economy are stabilizing after the initial tariff shock. The yen is looking to snap a three-day losing streak after
being pressured by wide interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world even as its central bank is widely expected to tighten policy next week. The IMF linked China’s booming exports and growing trade imbalances to a real depreciation
of the yuan. The euro could “clearly benefit” as traders price in the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates next year, Nomura analysts said. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD is flat, NZDUSD -0.05%,
USDCHF -0.25%, USDCAD is flat, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK is flat.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum +1%. Crypto traders are discovering that bragging online about their wins also gives criminals a handy roadmap for kidnapping them.   

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AbbVie (ABBV) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $265
    • Andersons (ANDE) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $65
    • Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $20
    • Borr Drilling (BORR) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $6
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $78
    • Docebo (DCBO CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$50
    • Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $40
    • EchoStar (SATS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $110
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$346.25
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $855
      • Raised to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $637
    • Groupe Dynamite (GRGD CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $34
    • JBT Marel (JBTM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $180
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Middleby (MIDD) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $175
    • Parsons (PSN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $75
    • Pentair (PNR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $135
    • PepsiCo (PEP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $164
    • ProPetro (PUMP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $13
    • Terex (TEX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60
    • Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $14.20
    • Waters (WAT) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $480
    • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$180.04
  • Downgrades
    • Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$283.90
    • Biogen (BIIB) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $143
    • Confluent (CFLT) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies
    • Ferrari (RACE) Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $395.49
    • Lincoln Electric (LECO) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $215
    • Noble Corp. (NE) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $33
    • Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
    • Regal Rexnord (RRX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $160
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$57
    • Transocean (RIG) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Veralto (VLTO) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $105
    • Vesta (VESTA* MM) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $35.10
    • Vinci (DG FP) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $38
  • Initiations
    • ABM Industries (ABM) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $54
    • Amazon (AMZN) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $300
    • American Bitcoin (ABTC) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $4
    • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $103
    • ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $45
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Birkenstock (BIRK) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $60
    • Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens
    • Burlington Stores (BURL) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $32
    • Clean Harbors (CLH) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $263
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Gap (GAP) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Laureate Education (LAUR) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $40
    • Lululemon (LULU) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Macy’s (M) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • National Vision (EYE) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $32
    • Nike (NKE) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $77
    • On Holding (ONON) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $59
    • Opus Genetics Inc (IRD) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $9
    • Orchestra BioMed (OBIO) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $15
    • OrthoPediatrics (KIDS) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $24
    • Peloton (PTON) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • PVH (PVH) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Revolve Group (RVLV) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $125
    • Ross Stores (ROST) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $199
    • Samsara (IOT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $55
    • SharkNinja (SN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $135
    • Take-Two (TTWO) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $300
    • Tapestry (TPR) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • TJX (TJX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $175
    • Under Armour (UAA) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $6
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • VF Corp (VFC) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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