Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 12, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  No economic releases are expected. 8:00ET Fed’s Paulson speaks; 8:30ET Fed’s Hammack speaks;
10:35ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a US government shutdown on January 31
  • Trump to introduce large tax R&D breaks for corporations, could come as early as next week
  • Ceasefire may start in Ukraine only after Ukrainian armed forces leave Donbass – Kremlin Aide Ushkov
  • PBOC VOWS MODERATELY LOOSE MONETARY POLICY AFTER CEWC
  • GAO estimates $500 billion a year in welfare fraud in US
  • Trump is expected to direct his administration to move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug
  • FED’S GOOLSBEE: PRETTY OPTIMISTIC RATES CAN COME DOWN IN 2026
  • Nvidia Mulls Raising H200 Chip Output on China Demand: Reuters

 

Global stocks nudged higher, with Asia and emerging markets shares leading gains. Investors appear to be rotating toward value sectors like financials, materials,
and resources amid cooling inflation expectations and a weakening US dollar. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that there are compelling investment stories including Korea, Japan, China or the broader emerging markets. Upbeat views are notable across the globe.
Stocks in Asia are in a “sweet spot,” according to UBS Global Wealth and not a single strategist surveyed by Bloomberg predicts a significant equity market decline in Europe in 2026. On the war front, Trump said the US would help with Ukraine’s security in
a peace deal with Russia but continued to express frustration with the pace of the talks. Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament, setting the stage for an early election. Senior U.S. officials are scheduled to meet Saturday in Paris with counterparts
from Ukraine, France, Germany, and the U.K. to discuss President Trump’s proposed peace plan, Axios reported.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed as a retreat in tech shares has Nasdaq futures lower while small caps outperform as the recent rally broadens. Broadcom declines more than 5% in premarket
trading after its sales outlook fell short of lofty expectations, adding to weaker AI trade sentiment. By contrast, gauges for US blue-chip and small-cap stocks are poised to extend their push into fresh highs. BofA strategist Michael Hartnett outlines a “Run-it-hot”
rotation into Main Street micro and mid-caps from Wall Street mega-caps. Meanwhile, Goldman’s Cyclicals vs. Defensives basket is on its longest winning streak in years. Goldman sees the S&P 500 up by 10% next year, driven by a solid economy. Nvidia has told
Chinese clients it is considering adding production capacity for its H200 AI chips after orders exceeded its current output level, Reuters reports.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Bristol Myers (BMY) rises 2% after Guggenheim Securities upgraded the drugmaker to buy. Broadcom (AVGO) falls 5% after the chip company provided
a sales outlook for the AI market that failed to meet investors’ expectations. Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) rises 1% after Reuters reported that the FDA’s Commissioner Office sought to cut the time reviewers spent checking documents related to the drugmaker’s experimental
weight-loss pill to one week from 60 days. Lululemon (LULU) climbs 9% after the yoga-wear retailer said its CEO Calvin McDonald will step down after a seven-year stint, signaling a potential strategy change. Netskope Inc. (NTSK) declines 5% after the security
software company posted fiscal third-quarter results. Quanex Building Products (NX) climbs 22% after posting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations. Veeva Systems (VEEV) falls 2% on light volume after KeyBanc cut the recommendation on the
life-sciences software company to sector weight.

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) hits all-time high.

European gauges are mostly higher but shrink from early highs. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises to a fresh intraday peak, with financial services, travel and defense shares
leading gains while healthcare underperforms. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months through October, data showed, losing steam in the tense lead-up to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget. Shares in UBS Group AG rise to the highest level since
early 2008 as a group of influential lawmakers proposed watering down the capital demands that Switzerland wants to impose on the bank. LPP shares surge 12% to an all-time high after the clothing company reported quarterly results above expectations and boosted
its guidance for 2027. Card Factory shares fall as much as 35% after cutting its guidance in what Panmure Liberum called a “shock warning that surprises in scale.”  Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.05%. Financial Services +1.1%, Travel +1%,
Defense +0.7%. Healthcare -0.6%, Personal goods -0.5%.

Shares in Asia climbed, buoyed by a rally in Japanese equities on bets the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%,
with TSMC, Toyota Motor and Tencent contributing the most to the advance.  Japan’s Topix was the best performing major index in the region, hitting a fresh record, driven by insurance and banking stocks seen as key beneficiaries of a potential hike. Chinese
equities advanced after policymakers pledged continued economic support.  Property stocks rallied after Beijing vowed to step up efforts to stabilize the housing market during a key economic meeting. China is also considering a package of incentives worth
as much as $70 billion to reduce its reliance on foreign chipmakers and support its own chipmaking industry. Korean defense shares jump after Australia agreed to allow Hanwha to roughly double its stake in shipbuilder Austal Ltd. to 19.9%. Vietnam’s benchmark
declined for a fourth straight day, with analysts citing concerns over rising interest rates and their impact on lending. Topix +2%, Hang Seng Tech +1.9%, Hang Seng Index +1.75%, Singapore +1.45%, Kospi +1.4%, ASX 200 +1.2%, Philippines +0.8%, CSI 300 +0.6%,
Taiwan +0.6%, Sensex +0.5%, Indonesia +0.5%. Vietnam -3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries extend recent curve-steepening trend with long-end yields cheaper by over 3bp on the day while front-end and belly tenors are little changed. Yield-curve
steepening trend sees 2s10s spread wider by 2bp, topping 63bp for first time since early September. 10-year near 4.18% is about 2bp higher on the day. Fed speakers include Philadelphia’s Paulson, Cleveland’s Hammack and Chicago Goolsbee, who dissented from
Wednesday’s decision in favor of no change.

 

METALS: 

Gold is higher for a fourth straight day while silver extended its all-time high. Silver jumped for a fourth day, pushed by exchange-traded fund inflows, momentum-following
and physical market tightness. The gold-silver ratio, which is sometimes used by traders to assess the relative cheapness of the white metal, fell to the lowest since 2021 on Thursday. iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver ETF, total call open interest
hit the highest since 2020 this week. Spot gold +1.3%, Silver +1.3%, Copper futures -0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied and are on track for a weekly decline as investors focused on a supply glut and potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, amid concerns over Venezuelan
oil supply disruptions. OPEC+ crude oil production fell in November, despite the group’s continued efforts to unwind 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts. Meanwhile, Russia’s seaborne oil product exports in November fell by just 0.8% from October,
with the completion of refinery maintenance helping to offset a slump in fuel exports. Chinese gas demand may increase by 5% next year and stay around that level through 2030, CNPC said. Its oil needs are seen flattening out.  WTI ~flat, Brent -0.1%, US Nat
Gas -0.7%, RBOB -0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar index edges higher, trimming its weekly decline as investors turned their attention to seasonality patterns and next week’s US inflation
and employment data. Sterling slips after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to October. The latest data likely cemented bets that the BoE will cut rates next week, though a cut has been nearly fully priced in for weeks. The
yen is lower ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting where the broad expectation is of a rate hike. The Swiss franc inches lower after rising to an almost one-month high on Thursday after the SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0% and said a recent agreement
to reduce US tariffs on Swiss goods had improved the economic outlook. As for the dollar, Deutsche Bank, Goldman and other Wall Street banks are forecasting it’ll resume its slide. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.02%,
NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK +0.4%, USDNOK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum -0.1%.   

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $105
    • Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $25
    • BrightSpring (BTSG) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $45
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $62
    • Cboe (CBOE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $302
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $41
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $95
    • Citigroup (C) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $124
    • Clear Secure (YOU) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $42
    • Cousins Properties (CUZ) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • EastGroup (EGP) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $220
    • Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $53
    • Lantheus (LNTH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $80
    • Lululemon (LULU) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $170
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • PBF Energy (PBF) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $38
    • Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $13
    • Soundhound (SOUN) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $15
    • TerraVest Capital (TVK CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$200
    • Zymeworks (ZYME) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $33
  • Downgrades
    • Air Products (APD) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $250
    • Ameren (AEE) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • BOK Financial (BOKF) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $129
    • Ciena (CIEN) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $190
    • Forge Global (FRGE) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • M&T Bank (MTB) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $217
    • PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $66
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Rezolute (RZLT) Cut to Hold at Craig-Hallum; PT $2
    • RH (RH) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $165
    • Roblox (RBLX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Cut to Hold at GF Securities; PT $239
    • SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $74
    • Tradeweb (TW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $121
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $192
    • Veeva (VEEV) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
  • Initiations
    • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Aritzia (ATZ CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT C$110
    • Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $28
    • Badger Meter (BMI) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $220
    • Boeing (BA) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $265
    • Booz Allen (BAH) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $93
    • CACI (CACI) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $642
    • Celcuity (CELC) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $126
    • Corning (GLW) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Curtiss-Wright (CW) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $607
    • Ducommun (DCO) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $110
    • Enel Chile (ENELCHIL CI) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $4.30
    • General Dynamics (GD) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $371
    • General Electric Aerospace (GE) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $386
    • Genpact (G) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $50
    • Gran Tierra (GTE) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $5.45
    • Heico (HEI) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $367
    • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $246
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $376
    • Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $84
    • L3Harris (LHX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $331
    • Leidos (LDOS) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $218
    • Life360 (360 AU) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $94
    • Loar Holdings (LOAR) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $83
    • Lockheed (LMT) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $505
    • Moderna (MRNA) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $30
    • National Grid (NG/ LN) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $654
    • Nouveau Monde (NOU CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$6
    • Oracle (ORCL) Rated New Add at CTBC Securities; PT $240
    • Palatin Technologies (PTN) Rated New Buy at Laidlaw; PT $60
    • Parex Resources (PXT CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$24
    • Parsons (PSN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $86
    • Phathom Pharma (PHAT) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $28
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $11
    • Planet Labs (PL) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $19
    • QXO (QXO) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $31
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $62
    • RTX Corp (RTX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $211
    • Science Applications (SAIC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $122
    • SouthState Bank (SSB) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $115
    • Teledyne (TDY) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $567
    • Textron (TXT) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $91
    • Tyler Tech (TYL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $650
    • V2X Inc (VVX) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $62
    • Valeura Energy (VLE CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • VSE (VSEC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $215
    • Watts Water (WTS) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $300
    • Zedcor Inc (ZDC CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$8.70
    • Zurn Elkay Water (ZWS) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $58

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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