Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 15, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Empire Manufacturing; 9:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index
for December; 10:30ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 11:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • China’s retail sales rose at the slowest pace on record outside the pandemic
  • PUTIN OPEN TO SERIOUS PEACE DEAL, NOT SOME STALLING STUNTS – PESKOV
  • Australia to Tighten Gun Laws After Bondi Attack
  • Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine may step back from its long-term goal of joining NATO
  • Hamas says Israel’s killing of senior commander threatens ceasefire
  • A school shooting in the US left two students at Brown University dead and nine injured
  • Rob Reiner Found Dead in His Home
  • Bears are back in first place in NFC North

 

Global stocks are generally positive this morning, at the start of a busy week for central banks including decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan
and the Bank of England. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while the Bank of England may make an equal-sized cut to 3.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, alongside Sweden’s Riksbank
and Norway’s Norges Bank. Investors will also get the opportunity to review delayed US economic indicators from the recent government shutdown, including the November employment report and the monthly consumer price index. In global macro today, China’s retail
sales rose 1.3% in November from a year ago, the slowest figures on record outside the pandemic. China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low. Official data showed today that new home prices extended a decline in November, indicating that a recovery
in demand remains elusive despite the government vowing to stabilize the sector.  Trump vowed “serious retaliation” after two US soldiers and an interpreter were killed in an attack in Syria that he blamed on Islamic State.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures edge higher, as the recent tech selloff eases slightly, with rotation into value/cyclical stocks continuing amid higher-for-longer rate signals from the Fed. Weak jobs
data on Tuesday could boost stocks as it would raise the probability of more rate cuts, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. The “good is bad/bad is good” trade is back, Michael Wilson wrote. A lot of data will be released this week, including October’s
partial CPI report and November’s full one, as well as two nonfarm payrolls releases and November’s unemployment rate. Citigroup strategists said they expect robust earnings growth will deliver a 13% rally next year for the S&P 500. Tech, health care, utilities,
and banking are among the sectors UBS Global Wealth Management recommends for 2026. In corporate news, Roomba maker iRobot filed for bankruptcy and proposed handing over control to its main Chinese supplier. No major companies are due to report today.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.8%, DJI +0.5%.

In pre-market trading, Mining stocks are higher amid a renewed advance in metals prices. Adobe (ADBE) slips 1.3% and ServiceNow (NOW) falls 4% after the pair were downgraded
to underweight at Keybanc, which sees AI tools bringing a bigger hit to both software firms. Entegris Inc. (ENTG) falls 2% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation on the semiconductor materials company to sell from neutral on slow wafer recovery. Immunome
(IMNM) soars 27% after the biotech company announced positive topline results from its Phase 3 trial of varegacestat. iRobot (IRBT) falls 72% after the company filed for bankruptcy and proposed handing over control to its main Chinese supplier. Teradyne (TER)
gains 3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation to buy from sell. ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) rises 4% after Calcalist reported that MSC has submitted a bid to purchase the Israeli shipping company.

European gauges are higher as risk appetite returned after Friday’s tech-driven slide, with the bank sector outperforming while defense stocks lag. Investors seem optimistic
on the prospect of progress in talks between Ukraine and the US, and the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. European banks have enjoyed a stellar 2025, with the sector up over 60% year-to-date, fueled by
strong earnings, high capital returns (dividends and buybacks), and AI-driven cost efficiencies expected to support profits into 2026. Shares in Europe’s defense companies are falling amid ongoing Ukraine peace talk meetings and after President Zelenskiy said
he could accept security guarantees from the US and Europe instead of NATO membership. Kering climbs as much as 4%, leading luxury stocks higher, after China vowed to increase financial support for key consumption areas. Puma shares also rise as much as 4%
on the news that China will strengthen coordination between the commerce and financial sectors to boost consumption. Argenx shares fall as much as 9.7% after the biotechnology company discontinued its late-stage studies into thyroid eye disease. Truecaller
shares plummet as much as 29%, to a record low, after the Swedish caller ID platform guided for its 4Q ad revenues around 30% lower year-on-year. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +1%, FTSE 100 +1%. Banks +1.4%, Luxury +1.4%, Travel +1.3%, Basic Resources +1.2%.
Defense -0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, led by a drop of as much as 2.7% in South Korean shares, one of the world’s best-performing markets this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index fell 0.6%, with TSMC and Samsung among the biggest drags. Declines in Asia tracked losses Friday in the US after Broadcom’s outlook fell short of estimates and Oracle delayed completion dates for some data centers it’s developing for OpenAI. Stocks dropped
in Hong Kong after weak Chinese economic data including slow retail sales. Japanese banking stocks gained on speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week. Thailand’s aviation shares advance after the local media reported that clashes at
the border with Cambodia have no impact on flight safety. Chinese consumer stocks advance after the government said it will increase financial support for key consumption areas. Hang Seng Tech -2.5%, Kospi -1.8%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%, Nikkei 225 -1.3%, Taiwan
-1.2%, ASX 200 -0.7%, CSI 300 -0.6%, Indonesia -0.1%, Vietnam -0.05%. Singapore +0.05%, Philippines +0.3%, Topix +0.2%, Thailand +1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains accumulated during European morning as the region’s bonds advanced. US yields are 1.5bp to 2.5bp richer across the curve, with 2s10s +0.5bps.
The week is packed with US economic data releases, including the delayed November jobs report on Tuesday. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold rose for a fifth straight day, nearing a fresh record while silver outperforms, up more than 3%. Goldman Sachs analysts expect gold prices to lift to $4,900
by end-2026, driven by continued central-bank buying and private investor flows under Fed easing. Forecasts for bullion prices will be shaped by expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts next year. Weak US non-farm payroll numbers on Tuesday would
raise the prospect of more reductions, a tailwind for non-yielding gold. Gold climbed as much as 1.2% and is in its longest winning streak since the run-up to an all-time high in October. Silver will continue to find support from a market deficit, as well
as resilient industrial demand and uncertainty around US import policy, ANZ said. Spot gold +1%, Silver +3.2%, Copper futures +1.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Crude oil is slightly lower after failing to hold onto opening gains. Oil prices remain close to their lowest levels in nearly two months, with improved demand in
China helping to offset global output that’s running ahead of consumption. China’s apparent oil demand and refining activity in November were higher than a year earlier, but other monthly figures signaled weakness in the broader economy. Oil is set for an
annual loss, with supply set to exceed demand this year and next. WTI -0.2%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB -0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers and lower on a trade-weighted basis as a yen rally set the tone. Investors will be parsing
non-farm payrolls, retail sales and CPI data this week for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path into next year. Yen tops of the G-10 leaderboard ahead of an expected BOJ rate hike on Friday. Kiwi lags after RBNZ Governor Breman pushed back on investor
bets over a rate hike next year. US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD -0.02%, NZDUSD -0.15%, USDCHF -0.01%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK -0.05%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.1%, Ethereum +1.8%.   

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Agilent (A) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $165
    • Akamai (AKAM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $115
    • American Homes (AMH) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $37
    • Ares Commercial (ACRE) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $5.50
    • Asana (ASAN) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $18
    • Ashland (ASH) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $71
    • AtkinsRealis (ATRL CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$110
    • Birchcliff Energy (BIR CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$8.50
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $61
    • CBRE (CBRE) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $185
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • CNO Financial (CNO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $47
    • Dollar General (DG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $166
    • Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $65
    • EnerSys (ENS) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $175
    • Fastenal (FAST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $52
    • Fastly (FSLY) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $14
    • Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $15
    • Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $55
    • Hershey (HSY) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $211
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Imax (IMAX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $47
    • Kinaxis (KXS CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$203
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $1,500
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Masco (MAS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $75
    • McCormick (MKC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $75
    • Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Red Robin (RRGB) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $7
    • Schrodinger (SDGR) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • South Bow (SOBO CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$45
    • Teradyne (TER) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $230
    • Trane Technologies (TT) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $500
    • Trex (TREX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $42
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
    • ZoomInfo (GTM) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
  • Downgrades
    • Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $310
    • Air Products (APD) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $245
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
    • Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT $8.50
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $120
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $80
    • BellRing Brands (BRBR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $35
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $110
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • CGI Inc. (GIB/A CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$139
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Costco (COST) Cut to Sell at Roth Capital Partners; PT $769
    • Ensign Energy Services (ESI CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$3
    • Entegris (ENTG) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $75
    • Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $62
    • Haemonetics (HAE) Cut to Hold at Needham
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $425
    • IAC Inc. (IAC) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$129
    • Ingram Micro (INGM) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Insight Enterprises (NSIT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $90
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $32
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $36
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $20
    • Rambus (RMBS) Cut to Strong Sell at CFRA; PT $83
    • Revvity (RVTY) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • ServiceNow (NOW) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $775
    • Teradyne (TER) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $170
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $156
    • Wyndham Hotels (WH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Zoetis (ZTS) Cut to Neutral at BofA
  • Initiations
    • Atex Resources Inc (ATX CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$4.25
    • Camtek/Israel (CAMT) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $123
    • Central BanCo (CBC) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $28
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
    • DBV Tech (DBV FP) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $42
    • Fabrinet (FN) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $550
    • Gloo Holdings (GLOO) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $14
      • Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $12
      • Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $14
      • Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $17
    • Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$31.68
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$32
    • Macom (MTSI) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $200
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $29
    • Septerna (SEPN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $34
    • Sera Prognostics (SERA) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $5
    • SiTime (SITM) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $420
    • Tenaris (TEN IM) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $43.60
    • Vinci Compass Investments (VINP) US Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $16
    • VinFast Auto (VFS) Rated New Corporate at Edison Investment Research

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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