Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 16, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Non-farm Payrolls (includes October estimate), Retail Sales; 9:45ET S&P Global PMI

Highlights and News:  

  • Nasdaq Inc. is looking for regulatory approval to extend trading hours on its stock venues to 23 hours during the work week
  • Ford Motor Co. announced it will take $19.5 billion in charges tied to a sweeping overhaul of its EV business.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects an announcement on President Trump’s Fed chair pick in early January
  • Citadel is shrinking its footprint in Chicago, moving its remaining operations out of the downtown tower and into a 50,000-square-feet space north of the Chicago River
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, for his part, said he’s “very much confident” the war is nearing an end

 

 

Global stocks are lower ahead of US November jobs data and other signals to Federal Reserve policy decisions. Aerospace and defense sectors traded down as hopes for
a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia reach new highs. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that after “long and very good talks” with European leaders, negotiators were “closer now than we have been ever” to stopping the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said he has an agreement with the US to make security guarantees legally binding through a vote in Congress as part of a deal to end Russia’s war. Uncertainty amongst today’s non-farm payroll data is higher than usual, with analysts estimating a
wide range of outcomes for the main stat before the new year. The report will also include an estimate of delayed October payrolls.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are recovering from an early decline following Monday’s close. Mag 7 and other tech stocks are modestly lower ahead of the US jobs report. Though a wide range of analyst
estimates persist, “employment numbers would need to surprise materially to meaningfully shift market expectations” (Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer). Consensus among economists range from just 22k jobs added to as many as 130k. Traders
are also weighing the prospect of a possible end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, sending oil and defense stocks lower.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.13%, DJI -0.03%.

In pre-market trading, PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) gains 1.5% after the company applied to become a bank in the US. Roku (ROKU) rises 4% after being upgraded to overweight
by Morgan Stanley in a review of the US advertising sector. Ford Motor Co. (F) gains 1.3% as the automaker is canceling a planned electric F-Series truck, shifting production toward gas and hybrid vehicles and repurposing an EV battery plant. Cognex (CGNX)
is up 4% after being raised to buy from sell at Goldman Sachs, with the broker noting organic growth is at an inflection point and margin recovery is underway after several years of underperformance. Accenture (ACN) rises 1.9% after Morgan Stanley upgraded
to overweight, saying the IT services company’s stock now trades at a compelling valuation following this year’s pullback.

European gauges are mostly lower following economic data revealing slower growth and a weakening industrial sector. Private-sector activity in the euro area grew less
than anticipated in December; German and French PMI readings came in slightly below estimates. UK unemployment climbed to 5.1%, its highest level in almost five years. Slowing wage growth is also cementing the case for a widely expected Bank of England interest-rate
cut later this week. Defense stocks in the region fell on the speculation of a possible ceasefire. Germany’s Rheinmetall AG dropped as much as 4.6%, and Italy’s Leonardo SpA fell 4.6%. The European Union looks to replace a landmark 2035 ban on new petrol and
diesel cars as part of a package of reforms aimed at supporting Europe’s embattled auto industry. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.4%.

Shares in Asia sank across the region behind a broad selloff with uncertainty about the strength of economic conditions and recent tech-driven rally. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index fell 1.4%, the most in over three weeks. South Korea saw the largest decline, with major indexes falling over 2.2% as chip stocks SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics retreated. AI beneficiaries TSMC and Alibaba were also among the biggest drags
area. A lack of strong stimulus measures from recent Chinese government meetings has also weighed on sentiment Chinese smart driving-related stocks rise after Changan Automobile and a BAIC unit received approvals from the authorities for their L3 driverless
cars to conduct trial runs. Biggest decliners in the Nikkei included Yaskawa Electric, which fell by 7%, and Fujikura with a 6.7% drop. Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in September to November, unchanged from the August to
October period. Kospi -2.2%, Hang Seng Index -1.5%, Nikkei 225 -1.8%, Taiwan -1.2%, ASX 200 -0.4%, CSI 300 -1.2%, Indonesia +0.4%, Vietnam +2.0%. Singapore -0.2%, Topix -1.8%, Thailand -1.0%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries dipped slightly in early U.S. trading Tuesday amid a broader selloff in U.K. gilts following stronger-than-expected December PMI data. The 10-year yield
hovered near 4.175%, up less than 1 basis point, while markets awaited the delayed November jobs report, October retail sales, and U.S. PMI readings. Fed-dated OIS pricing implied about 5 basis points of easing for January as forecasts pointed to a modest
50,000 payrolls gain and a jobless rate uptick to 4.5%. With year-end approaching, investment-grade dollar bond issuance stalled, and Treasury auctions were set for 20-year bonds on Wednesday and 5-year TIPS on Thursday.

 

 

METALS: 

Gold retreats after a five-day gain following last week’s Fed rate cut. Investors are growing cautious ahead of US jobs data, with October and November data filling
in some of the missing points resulting from the government shutdown. Profit taking in both gold and silver have kept in suppressed from their all-time highs reached in October. Other precious metals such as platinum and palladium are expected to receive a
boost following the EU’s backtrack of a ban on combustion-engine cars by 2035.

Spot gold -0.2%, Silver -1.7%

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

In oil markets, Brent crude slips below $60 a barrel for the first time since May. Indications of supply outpacing demand are growing amongst optimism of a peace
deal between Russia and Ukraine. Middle Eastern crude prices briefly entered a bearish contango pattern early Tuesday. Russian crude prices are at their lowest since the war in Ukraine began, on average receiving just over $40 a barrel.

WTI -1.6%, Brent -1.5%, US Nat Gas -1.6%, RBOB -1.3%. 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

The US dollar index weakened across spot and options markets Tuesday as traders awaited the November U.S. payrolls report.. Risk reversals showed the strongest bearish
dollar sentiment since September. The yen and pound led G-10 gains, with USD/JPY down 0.4% to 154.68 amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, while GBP/USD climbed to 1.3415 as soft U.K. labor data bolstered the case for a Bank of England rate
cut. The New Zealand dollar held steady as bond yields fell following lower debt issuance forecasts. US$ Index -0.26%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.04%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%,

 

Bitcoin +1.3%, Ethereum +0.3%.   

 

 

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Agilent (A) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $165
    • Akamai (AKAM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $115
    • American Homes (AMH) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $37
    • Ares Commercial (ACRE) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $5.50
    • Asana (ASAN) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $18
    • Ashland (ASH) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $71
    • AtkinsRealis (ATRL CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$110
    • Birchcliff Energy (BIR CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$8.50
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $61
    • CBRE (CBRE) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $185
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • CNO Financial (CNO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $47
    • Dollar General (DG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $166
    • Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $65
    • EnerSys (ENS) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $175
    • Fastenal (FAST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $52
    • Fastly (FSLY) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $14
    • Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $15
    • Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $55
    • Hershey (HSY) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $211
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Imax (IMAX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $47
    • Kinaxis (KXS CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$203
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $1,500
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Masco (MAS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $75
    • McCormick (MKC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $75
    • Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Red Robin (RRGB) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $7
    • Schrodinger (SDGR) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • South Bow (SOBO CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$45
    • Teradyne (TER) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $230
    • Trane Technologies (TT) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $500
    • Trex (TREX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $42
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
    • ZoomInfo (GTM) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
  • Downgrades
    • Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $310
    • Air Products (APD) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $245
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
    • Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT $8.50
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $120
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $80
    • BellRing Brands (BRBR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $35
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $110
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • CGI Inc. (GIB/A CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$139
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Costco (COST) Cut to Sell at Roth Capital Partners; PT $769
    • Ensign Energy Services (ESI CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$3
    • Entegris (ENTG) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $75
    • Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $62
    • Haemonetics (HAE) Cut to Hold at Needham
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $425
    • IAC Inc. (IAC) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$129
    • Ingram Micro (INGM) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Insight Enterprises (NSIT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $90
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $32
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $36
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $20
    • Rambus (RMBS) Cut to Strong Sell at CFRA; PT $83
    • Revvity (RVTY) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • ServiceNow (NOW) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $775
    • Teradyne (TER) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $170
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $156
    • Wyndham Hotels (WH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Zoetis (ZTS) Cut to Neutral at BofA
  • Initiations
    • Atex Resources Inc (ATX CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$4.25
    • Camtek/Israel (CAMT) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $123
    • Central BanCo (CBC) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $28
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
    • DBV Tech (DBV FP) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $42
    • Fabrinet (FN) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $550
    • Gloo Holdings (GLOO) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $14
      • Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $12
      • Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $14
      • Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $17
    • Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$31.68
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$32
    • Macom (MTSI) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $200
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $29
    • Septerna (SEPN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $34
    • Sera Prognostics (SERA) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $5
    • SiTime (SITM) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $420
    • Tenaris (TEN IM) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $43.60
    • Vinci Compass Investments (VINP) US Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $16
    • VinFast Auto (VFS) Rated New Corporate at Edison Investment Research

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

Bryan Duong

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