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Forget the Screens, Grab the Eggnog — Lowest Holiday Volume Ever on Deck!
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Our View
I read something that said less than 25% of the 100% will be online today—meaning the half-day session could see the lowest volume for a Christmas holiday ever. Is it true? I suspect it is.
Our Lean
Like yesterday, I can’t rule out some small pullbacks, but I think they will get bought. If the ES can get above 6960 and hold, it could trade above 6975 or slightly higher.
The best trade today is to forget trading and enjoy the holiday.
Market Recap
The ES traded down to 6913.25 and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6919.25, down 10.25 points or -0.15%. After the open, the ES dropped to 6917.75, then rallied up to 6943.50 at 9:45. It pulled back to 6924.00 and then slowly traded up to 6961.25, right into my suggested upside resistance at the 6960 to 6970 level.
There were some small pullbacks, but basically, it was a series of new highs preceded by flatline price action. After the high, the ES pulled back a few points and then traded up to a new high at 6962.50 at 3:00, followed by another small pullback.
At 3:37, the ES was trading 6950.50 with a volume of a mere 560k contracts traded. The ES traded 6960.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $900 million to sell, and then flipped to the buy side. The ES traded 6957.75 and rallied up to a new high at 6963.75, and then traded 6960.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES settled at 6958.00, up 27.25 points or +0.39%, marking its fourth session in a row of gains. The NQ settled at 25,821.25, up 120 points or +0.47%.
In the end, it was another day of low-volume, buy-the-dip trading. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they acted firm. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, as expected, volume was low at 874k contracts traded.
Guest Posts
MiM
MOC Recap
The Market-on-Close auction developed as a clear sell-driven event that only partially unwound late, with heavy institutional pressure evident across sectors and symbols. From the open of the MOC window, imbalance totals quickly skewed negative, expanding from roughly -$689M at 15:50 to a trough near -$1.6B by 15:53–15:54. During this phase, sell dollars consistently overwhelmed buys, and the sell-side percentage pushed into the mid-to-high -60% range, signaling broad-based distribution rather than isolated hedging.
Sector flow confirmed the tone. Financial Services, Technology, Healthcare, Industrials, and Utilities all posted decisive sell imbalances, most with lean percentages beyond -66%, pointing to wholesale selling. Financial Services stood out with a nearly -80% lean, while Healthcare and Utilities followed closely, reflecting defensive liquidation rather than rotation. Technology was particularly notable: despite significant buy interest in individual mega-cap names, the sector closed deeply negative, suggesting that supply was being met aggressively into strength.
On the symbol level, NVDA dominated activity with massive paired dollars and a net buy skew, but that demand was not enough to offset broader tech and index pressure. MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, AMD, and INTC all saw meaningful participation, yet much of that flow appeared rotational rather than directional, with net figures closer to the 50–60% zone. In contrast, Financials such as V, MA, BRK.B, and COF reflected steadier sell-side dominance, reinforcing the sector-level read.
The character of the auction shifted materially after 15:55. Buy programs surged, flipping the net imbalance briefly positive and driving buy percentages above +50%. This late reversal culminated in a strong +$800M to +$900M print just before 16:00, before settling at a modest positive close. That recovery reduced, but did not erase, the damage from earlier selling.
Overall, this was not a clean buy-the-close session. The dominant theme was institutional selling into the early and mid-MOC, followed by late rebalancing and tactical buy programs. The extreme sector leans suggest distribution first, adjustment second—an important distinction heading into the next session.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for December 24, 2025:
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SP: 51.76
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NQ: 223.29
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Dow: 308.55
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Tuesday, December 23, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 125 / 47
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 167 / 216
• NYSE TRIN: 0.90
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.89
Weekly Market 📈
For the week ending Friday, December 19, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 233 / 98
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 352 / 554
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.60
ES H Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6952.00. This wPv level defines the directional bias for the session. Holding above it keeps buyers in control, while acceptance below shifts the edge back to sellers.
ES is trading near 6957.50 during the Globex session, just above the bull/bear line. This suggests a slightly bullish posture, though conviction remains limited. Above 6952.00, upside targets come in at 6963.75, followed by the upper intraday range target at 6996.50. Acceptance above 6996.50 would put 7038.50 in play as the next upside reference.
If ES fails to hold 6952.00, look for rotation lower toward 6930.75, then 6913.25. The lower intraday range target sits at 6907.50. A break and acceptance below that level increases downside risk toward 6865.50.
Overall, ES is balanced with a mild bullish lean while above 6952.00. Stronger directional clarity comes with either acceptance above 6996.50 or a sustained move back below the bull/bear line.
NQ H Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,773.50. This is the key pivot for today. Acceptance above this level keeps the tone constructive, while failure back below it would shift the bias back to sell-side pressure.
NQ is currently trading near 25,792.25 in the Globex session, slightly above the bull/bear line. As long as price holds above 25,773.50, upside continuation remains in play with initial resistance at 25,991.50, which is the upper range target and then 26,196.75. A clean push through 25,991.50 would open the door for a stronger extension.
If NQ loses 25,773.50, downside rotation becomes likely. Initial support sits at 25,701.00, followed by 25,608.25. A break below 25,608.25 exposes 25,555.50 as the lower range target. Below that, weakness could accelerate toward 25,460.75.
Overall, the market is balanced to slightly bullish above 25,773.50, but traders should stay nimble. Rejection from 25,991.50 or a failure back below the bull/bear line would favor rotation trades rather than trend continuation.
Calendars
Economic
Today
Important Upcoming / Recent
Earnings – SP500
Upcoming
NONE
Recent
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Tuesday’s trading session in the Polaris Trading Group room was a textbook example of disciplined execution, strategic preparation, and strong order flow alignment. Led by PTGDavid and Manny, the team capitalized on a bullish market bias that played out with precision. The DTS Briefing’s bull case targets—6935, 6945, and 6957—were all fulfilled, confirming the strength of the premarket plan.
Key Trades & Highlights
Premarket Trade Plan:
Manny outlined six well-defined trade setups before the open, focusing on:
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Support Buys at 6906–6910 and 6876–6880
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Continuation Long through 6936–6940
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LB&F traps at 6900 and 6908
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Resistance Fade at 6961–6965
Each setup included clear triggers based on order flow confirmation (delta flips, bid stacking, absorption) and measured risk parameters.
Successful Executions
Continuation Long (Setup #3 – 6936–6940)
Manny reported a quick +5 points on the continuation long breakout early in the session. Several traders, including Roy_, participated on a retest near 6940.50, though some encountered early failure before the follow-through resumed.
Dynamic Dip Buy (L6927)
This trade turned out to be the highlight of the session.
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Manny captured +5, +10, and then a full +20-point gain as the dip buy launched into higher targets.
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The move aligned with the DTS bull roadmap, which forecasted 6935, 6945, and 6957 as sequential upside targets—all of which were hit.
DTS Briefing Validation
PTGDavid emphasized the accuracy of the DTS Briefing, celebrating each level as it was reached. The sequence:
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6935 nailed
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6945 filled
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6957 fulfilled
The entire room benefited from following the structured plan, with multiple confirmations throughout the morning.
Market Context & Trader Insights
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VIX Monitoring: Manny and others highlighted the importance of watching the VIX for any signs of a reversal. It was trending, offering insight into volatility and potential shifts.
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Missed Opportunity: Manny narrowly missed Entry #1 by 3–4 points early on—a reminder that not every zone will fill cleanly and patience is key.
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Dip Buy Execution: Traders responded well to the intraday shift toward dip buys, adjusting focus mid-session to catch the secondary long from 6927.
Lessons Learned
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Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan: The strongest trades followed the prewritten strategy exactly, highlighting the power of disciplined execution.
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Write It Down: A shared quote from X reinforced the value of documenting plans: “Plans kept only in your head are prone to convenient revision. Writing them down enforces discipline.”
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Let It Work: After locking initial gains, Manny reminded the group to step back and let trades play out—a key part of running winners.
Community & Commentary
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Traders shared morning charts and levels (thanks to Bosier), and kept the tone light with humor and support.
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Manny joked about the last target always “feeling like a country mile away,” though it was eventually reached.
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PTGDavid briefly lost connectivity in the afternoon but stayed active via mobile, confirming the final target at 6957.
Other Market Notes
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The group noted strong moves in Silver and Gold, which were highlighted around midday.
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A question was raised about the “official” start of the Santa rally—indicating growing bullish sentiment and seasonal awareness.
Final Summary
Tuesday delivered a clean, bullish session, with multiple setups executing as planned. The dynamic dip buy off 6927 and the continuation breakout above 6936 were the standout trades. The room followed the DTS Briefing closely, and the strategy unfolded with near-perfect accuracy.
A strong day of trading, marked by preparation, community insight, and disciplined execution.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, December 24, 2025
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Holiday Schedule: U.S. stock markets close early today at 1:00pm ET and will be closed tomorrow for Christmas. Expect low volume and muted price action both today and Friday.
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Market Highlights:
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S&P 500 hit a new record high at 6909.79, with all three major indexes up for the fourth straight session.
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Gold, silver, and copper are all rallying, with copper reaching a record $12,000/ton.
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Revised GDP data showed 4.3% annualized growth, beating expectations (3.3%), and strong summer consumer spending.
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Market odds of a January Fed rate cut have dropped—85% chance of no change, per FedWatch.
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Volatility & Volume:
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Volatility continues to contract. The ES 5-day ADR is 76.50 pts, but today’s range likely to be narrower.
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No whale activity overnight; trader volume light.
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Markets in clear holiday mode.
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Tech Levels for ES:
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Resistance: 7075/80s, 7488/93s
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Support: 6814/19s, 6695/90s, 6341/36s
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The ES is mid-channel within its short-term uptrend. Bulls and bears both have room to maneuver today.
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Earnings & Data: No significant earnings. Unemployment Claims at 8:30am ET is the only notable economic release.
Wishing all traders a peaceful and joyful holiday season!
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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