Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims; 11:30ET 7-year note auction; US equity market closes at
1:00ET, bond market closes at 2:00ET

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas

Highlights and News:  

• Gold, silver and platinum extend record streak
• US delays announcement of China chip tariffs until 2027
• ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE, US SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO FINALIZING PLAN
• “Santa Claus Rally” Phase Starts Today
• Taiwan is celebrating Christmas Day for the first time in 25 years
• Trump administration to begin garnishing wages of student loan borrower in default

Global stocks steadied near record highs while commodities, such as gold and silver, extended their bullish run to new all-time highs as 2025 draws to a close. The
Trump administration said it will impose tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors, citing Beijing’s “unreasonable” efforts to dominate the chip industry, though the measures will not take effect until June 2027. Zelenskiy said peace negotiations “moved
significantly closer to finalizing the documents,” even as his country and the US remain split on territorial issues.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are hovering near all-time highs ahead of the Christmas break as a seasonally strong period for equities begins. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after strength
in technology shares pushed the index to a record, with trading expected to be lighter amid shortened holiday hours. Intel shares fell premarket after Reuters reported that Nvidia halted a test that uses the chip manufacturer’s 18A technology to produce its
chips. Alphabet’s Waymo will upgrade its self-driving software after robotaxis stalled during a San Francisco power outage, causing traffic jams. Nike gained 2% in premarket after a filing shows that Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $2.95 million worth of shares
on Dec. 22.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.02, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) is up 2.7% after launching its largest-ever satellite from India, the first in a series of deployments to help the
company compete against Elon Musk’s SpaceX in delivering space-based connectivity to mobile phones. Dynavax (DVAX) jumps 38% after Sanofi says it will start a cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of the vaccine maker for $15.50 per share in
cash. Intel (INTC) falls 2.6% after Reuters reported that Nvidia halted a test that uses the chip manufacturer’s 18A technology to produce its chips. Nike (NKE) gains 2.4% after a filing shows that Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $2.95 million worth of shares
on Dec. 22. Ramaco (METC) is up 7.7% after the coal mining company announced a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of the currently outstanding shares of its Class A common stock.

European gauges are muted in thin holiday trading. Stock exchanges in Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland and Finland are shut through the day. The UK, France and
Spain will be open for half-day of trading. Among individual movers, Sanofi SA dipped after the French drugmaker said the US Food and Drug Administration has issued a complete response letter for its experimental multiple sclerosis drug. The French pharmaceutical
firm also agreed to buy Dynavax Technologies for about $2.2 billion, as the drugmaker tries to expand a vaccines business. BP is set to raise about $6 billion in total net proceeds from selling a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business to Stonepeak, while
retaining a minority interest. The deal falls short of earlier expectations of up to $10 billion. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX closed, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.25%. Luxury +0.5%, Food & Bev +0.2%, Media +0.2%. Defense -0.2%.

Shares in Asia eked out a small gain, as losses in Japan and South Korea were offset by gains in China and Vietnam. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day,
with tech names including TSMC, SK Hynix and Advantest leading the advance. Japanese stocks were down after losing steam in thin afternoon trading amid holidays, with a rebounding yen weighing on exporters after authorities of both Japan and Korea warned against
excessive currency moves. KKR and PAG agreed to buy the real estate holdings of beermaker Sapporo Holdings in one of Japan’s largest property deals this year. Chinese equities ended the day higher, with sentiment partly lifted by news that the US is holding
off on new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports. Markets in the Philippines were closed for a holiday. Vietnam +0.6%, Thailand +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.3%, Taiwan +0.2%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%. Singapore -0.05%, Sensex -0.1%, Kospi -0.2%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Topix
-0.5%, Indonesia -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are little changed as investors positioned for a shortened trading day ahead of the holidays. 10-year yield is basically flat around 4.16% with 2s10s
-1bp. As investors absorbed delayed Commerce Department figures revealing 4.3% U.S. economic growth in the third quarter—the strongest pace in two years—the better-than-expected data could complicate the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates. This
week’s issuance concludes with $44 billion 7-year notes auction. Tuesday’s auction of 5-year note drew solid investor demand. Bond markets will close early at 2:00ET today and will be closed Thursday for Christmas Day.

METALS: 

Gold is steady after retracing from new all-time highs above $4,524 an ounce as escalating tensions in Venezuela boosted haven demand. Silver, platinum and copper
also hit records. Silver jumped 1.2% to a record $72.27 per ounce and was set for an annual rise of almost 150%, its best year ever. Gold has risen more than 70% this year, its biggest annual gain since 1979. Copper has gained almost 40% this year and is on
track for its biggest annual jump since 2009. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +0.8%, Copper futures +1.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil held gains from the past five sessions as escalating geopolitical tensions provide some support to a market headed for oversupply. Brent futures traded above
$62 a barrel in thin Christmas Eve trading, up about 6% since closing at the lowest level in almost five years early last week, as the US ramps up pressure on Venezuela. The global benchmark is still on track for its biggest annual decline since 2020 when
the COVID pandemic decimated oil demand. Meanwhile, Russian crude is building up at sea, with the volume jumping 48% since the end of August. The US actions against Venezuela may be raising concerns among shippers and buyers of Russian barrels, who worry their
cargoes could also be targeted. WTI +0.15%, Brent +0.05%, US Nat Gas -0.4%, RBOB +0.2%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus G-10 peers and set for its biggest yearly fall since 2017 while the yen gained for a third straight session amid intervention
risk. Aussie$ hits its highest level since October 2024. The won surges more than 1.5% after Korean FX authorities issue a strong warning against excessive weakness. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.01%, NZDUSD -0.1%,
USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.25%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.3%, Spot Ethereum -1.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke