Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Pending Home Sales; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Manf. Activity; 1:00ET Trump will meet with
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Palm Beach, Florida

Highlights and News:  

• Zelenskiy asked Trump for 50-year security guarantee for Ukraine
• China holds military drills around Taiwan after US arms deal
• NETANYAHU MEETS TRUMP AS GAZA CEASEFIRE APPROACHES CROSSROAD
• Volatility gripped the precious metals trade after a furious rally to all-time highs

Global stocks steadied as investors assessed comments from President Trump that he and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy were getting “a lot closer” to a deal that could
end the Ukraine war. Trump met Zelenskiy in Florida for what the US President described as positive talks, although no agreement on bringing peace to Ukraine has yet been reached. Overall, trading volumes remain low due to the year-end holiday period as another
shortened trading week starts. Much of the market action is in precious metals, with silver smashing through $80 for the first time, gold retreating from Friday’s all-time high and platinum pulling back sharply after surging nearly 10%. Meanwhile, China said
it will expand government spending and improve how it deploys capital in 2026 to balance supporting growth and containing debt risks. China kicked off military maneuvers around Taiwan that it said included live-fire drills, in a dramatic show of force after
the US announced one of its biggest arms packages ever for Taiwan.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower as Wall Street was set to open the final three days of trading in a rollercoaster 2025 that looks likely to end with sizable gains. Tech-heavy Nasdaq contracts
lead losses as shares of megacaps Nvidia and Tesla both fell over 1% in pre-market trading. The primary data highlight this week will be Tuesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting earlier this month. BofA’s Brian Moynihan
said he expects Trump’s trade tensions to ease in 2026, with tariffs settling at an average of 15%.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, silver stocks including Coeur (CDE) and Hecla (HL) fall as the precious metal retreated sharply after smashing through $80 an ounce for the first
time. Coeur -4.5%, Hecla -4%. Coupang (CPNG) gains 2% after offering compensation worth more than $1 billion to all customers affected by South Korea’s biggest-ever data breach. DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) soars 33% as SoftBank Group is said to be in advanced
talks to acquire the private equity firm that invests in assets such as data centers. Energy Fuels (UUUU) gains 3% after saying it exceeded 2025 uranium production and sales guidance. Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) rises 0.9% after the WSJ reported that founder
Chip Wilson is launching a proxy fight at the retailer.

European gauges are little changed following talks about a peace deal for Ukraine that yielded no breakthrough. Mining shares outperformed driven by surging metals
prices while defense stocks led decliners. International Personal Finance rises as much as 6.8% in London trading after Basepoint agreed to buy the consumer finance company in a deal valuing IPF at about £543 million. BioGaia shares gain as much as 4.2% as
DNB Carnegie lifts its price target on the Swedish probiotics firm. Leonardo shares fall as much as 4.7% after Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy over a possible peace deal. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.15%,
FTSE 100 +0.1%. Basic Resources +1.2%, Real Estate +0.7%, Chemicals +0.7%. Defense -1.3%, Insurance -0.4%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, buoyed by advances in tech firms.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3%, boosted by TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
South Korea led gains in the region while shares in Hong Kong underperformed. Sabre-rattling continued in Asia, with China positioning military units around Taiwan in preparation for live-fire
⁠drills on Tuesday. North Korean state media, meanwhile,
said leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch of long-range missiles on Sunday. China’s markets reversed earlier gains despite Beijing’s pledge to broaden its fiscal spending base in 2026. Meanwhile, mining shares across Asia climbed after silver rallied to a
new peak. In corporate news, Japan’s SoftBank is in advanced talks to acquire DigitalBridge Group, a private equity firm that invests in assets such as data centers, according to sources. Kospi +2.2%, Vietnam +1.4%, Indonesia +1.25%, Taiwan +0.9%, Topix +0.1%.
Philippines -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Sensex -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Nikkei 225 -0.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains on lower-than-average futures volumes to begin the year’s final week, amid similar price action in most European bond markets where trading
resumed after Friday’s holiday. Yields are lower by 2.5bp at the long end with the curve slightly flatter; 10-year is down 1.5bp to 4.12%; 2s10s and 5s30s -1.5bp.

METALS: 

Gold slid from levels close to historic highs as investors booked profits and diminished perceptions of geopolitical risks dampened demand for safe-haven assets.
Silver retreated sharply after hitting an all-time peak of $84 an ounce, falling more than 5% as traders took profits from a record-breaking rally powered by a structural imbalance in supply and demand. Copper prices soared to an all-time high in London, before
reversing early gains of more than 6%. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange is slightly lower at $12,133 per metric ton, having set a record of $12,960 earlier. A weaker dollar and rising geopolitical tensions have added to the appeal of precious
metals during an end-of-year bull run that also swept gold, platinum and palladium to record highs last week. Today’s wild swings came after a comment by Elon Musk over the weekend that highlighted the growing investor frenzy around precious metals. Musk replied
to a tweet on Chinese export restrictions by saying on X: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.”  Widespread unsubstantiated online rumors claimed that a systemically important bank failed to meet a ~$2.3 billion margin call on
massive, short positions in silver futures. The CME Group raised maintenance margins for silver futures, a standard move to manage volatility in parabolic markets. Spot gold -1.7%, Silver -5.3%, Copper futures -3.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose as US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough, and after China vowed to support growth next year.  Zelenskiy said that
significant progress had been made in talks with Trump and agreed that US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week to finalize issues aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. China is on track to receive a record monthly volume of crude oil as the world’s
biggest importer moves barrels stored on ships onshore. Russia extended a temporary ban on gasoline exports through the end of February to maintain stability in its domestic fuel market. WTI +2.6%, Brent +2.3%, US Nat Gas +0.5%, RBOB +1.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen firmed after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting in December showed many board members saw the need for further
rate hikes to contain inflation. Thin end-of-year trading has European currencies little changed. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.7%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.1%, Spot Ethereum -0.1%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

Downgrades

Amicus (FOLD) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $14.50

Initiations

Jefferson Capital (JCAP) Rated New Buy at Singular Research; PT $27

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke