Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET EMPLOYMENT REPORT, Housing Starts, Building Permits,
Canada Unemployment Rate; 10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment, Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 12:00ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 2:00ET Oil executives meet Trump at White House

Highlights and News:  

• US DEC. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 50K M/M; EST. +70K
• US DEC. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.4%; EST. 4.5%
• Only a 30% chance the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs legal: Kalshi
• Trump: I want the US to own Greenland,
  want to do Greenland ‘properly’ – NYT
• TRUMP SAYS VENEZUELA COOPERATING, CANCELS EXPECTED SECOND WAVE OF ATTACKS
  
• Meta Unveils Sweeping Nuclear-Power Plan to Fuel Its AI Ambitions – WSJ
• RUBIO ATTENDING WHITE HOUSE MEETING WITH OIL COMPANIES: REUTERS
• Iran Shuts Down Internet as Protests Escalate; Trump warned Tehran not to shoot civilians
• Chicago Bears last beat the Green Bay Packers in an NFL playoff game on December 14, 1941

Global stocks nudged higher in cautious trading with investors focused on the upcoming US December jobs report and potential developments around a Supreme Court ruling
on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. Simmering geopolitical tensions across the globe boosted oil prices, as well as defense stocks. Iran was effectively isolated from the outside world overnight as authorities imposed a near-total internet blackout
to suppress growing protests, resulting in phone calls failing to connect into the country, flights being canceled, and Iranian news websites updating only sporadically. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused protesters of acting on behalf of President
Trump. Trump said Venezuela is cooperating and “cancelled” a second wave of attacks in the country. German exports unexpectedly fell 2.5% in November as shipments to other European Union countries and the US dropped, while industrial output rose despite expectations
for a decline, official data showed.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures inch higher, with traders awaiting two key events: a potential Supreme Court decision on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs and the December payrolls report—a
key indicator for the future path of interest rates. Economists estimate that 70,000 new jobs were added in December, slightly higher than the previous month. Betting markets see only a 30% chance of the Supreme Court ruling Trump’s tariffs are legal. In corporate
news today, Rio Tinto is in talks to buy Glencore to create the world’s biggest mining company with a combined market value of more than $200 billion. In tech, TSMC’s quarterly sales beat estimates, bolstering hopes for sustained global AI spending in 2026.
Shares in Oklo and Vistra rally as Meta Platforms agreed to a series of electricity deals for its data centers that will make it the biggest buyer of nuclear power among its hyperscaler peers. Among movers: Oklo +18%, Vistra +8.6%, NuScale Power +13% and NANO
Nuclear Energy +6.7%. Shares in mortgage stocks including LoanDepot, Rocket Cos and Opendoor Technologies jumped in premarket trading after Trump said in a social media post that he was directing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds. Mortgage debt
and US home-lender stocks rose premarket. Merck is in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines for a price tag between $28 billion and $32 billion, the FT reported.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15-0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.15%.

In pre-market trading, mortgage stocks jump after President Trump said that he was directing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds. LoanDepot (LDI) +16%, 
Rocket Cos (RKT) +5%. Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST) slumps 47% after flagging an FDA saying the agency has identified deficiencies that preclude labeling discussions for Anaphylm. AXT Inc. (AXTI) slides 14% after the semiconductor company’s fourth-quarter
revenue forecast disappointed. Intel (INTC) is up 2% after President Donald Trump praised Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan on social media after a meeting between the two. Oklo (OKLO) rises 19% and Vistra (VST) rallies 14% as Meta Platforms agreed to a series of electricity
deals for its data centers. Olin (OLN) is down 8% after the chemicals company forecast adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter that missed. Revolution Medicines (RVMD) gains 13% after the Financial Times reported that Merck is in talks to buy the cancer drugmaker.
WD-40 Co. (WDFC) slumps 7% after the lubricant spray maker posted disappointing earnings.

The VIX — historically volatile in the first quarter — has been remarkably subdued amid a whirlwind of geopolitical news in the first week of 2026.

European gauges are higher with mining shares among the biggest gainers, after Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks to form the world’s largest miner. Technology and consumer
stocks outperform, while insurers lag. Glencore shares surged over 9% in London trading after the mining giant confirmed ongoing discussions with Rio Tinto regarding a potential merger of some or all of their operations, including an all-share takeover that
would form the world’s largest mining company. Rio Tinto shares fell by as much as 3%, reflecting investor skepticism towards a deal and concerns it will overpay. Tecan shares rise over 9% after the Swiss maker of laboratory equipment reported order growth
in the second half of 2025 that was better than expected. TeamViewer gained as much as 8.4% after the software company reported FY25 sales in line with lowered estimates following a profit warning in October. Sainsbury’s shares drop as much as 6.4% after the
UK grocer reported disappointing sales for the holiday period. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.7%. Technology +2.7%, Basic Resources +2.1%, Autos +1.8%, Energy +1.6%. Insurance -1.5%, Real Estate -0.6%.  

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, with Japan outperforming regional peers as the yen weakened against the dollar and Fast Retailing reported strong earnings. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index held on to a 0.1% gain. Investors are closely watching for a possible US Supreme Court ruling as soon as today on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs, a decision with significant consequences for Asian exporters. Stocks of Asian
exporting companies would likely benefit if the threat of new US tariffs is lifted, although Trump could still pursue alternative methods to impose levies. Some Chinese semiconductor stocks fell as the nation plans to approve some imports of Nvidia Corp.’s
H200 chips as soon as this quarter. Stocks in India slipped as investors continued booking profits ahead of the earnings season. Nikkei 225 +1.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.9%, Kospi +0.75%, Vietnam +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.45%, Hang Seng Index +0.3%, Indonesia and Singapore
+0.1%. ASX200 -0.03%, Taiwan -0.2%, Sensex -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses in early US trading as investors brace for the US payrolls report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The move unwinds the
late Thursday rally for long-end tenors — and related move in swap spreads — that followed Trump’s directive that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds. UK gilts are set for their biggest weekly gain since October due to decreasing
supply of long-end bonds as well increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. US 10-year yield near 4.185% is about 2bp higher on the day with the curve slightly flatter.

METALS: 

Silver rises as spot gold eases as traders await US jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. The numbers are expected to show stronger
hiring but steady unemployment. Copper, aluminum and other industrial metals pushed higher on concerns about tightening supplies. Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half copper forecast and said prices above $13,000 are not expected to be sustained, as Chinese
physical buyers have hesitated to pay current prices. Chinese copper demand weakened after prices surged to records, with industrial buyers pulling back. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver +1.1%, Copper futures +2.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil held onto its biggest daily gain since October, amid Iran’s efforts to suppress intensifying protests and warnings from President Trump of severe consequences
should authorities harm demonstrators. The unrest in Iran is disrupting air travel in and out of the country and has begun to shift the focus away from Venezuela. Brent futures extended Thursday’s 3.4% jump, trading above $62 a barrel. Tehran restricted internet
and phone access overnight, with the US president saying the country’s regime would “pay hell” if protesters were killed. Trump added that big oil companies will invest at least $100 billion to revive Venezuela’s oil industry ahead of a meeting with oil executives
in Washington later today. Elsewhere, Russia’s crude oil production plunged by the most in 18 months in December amid a surge of Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure. Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile — known as Oreshnik
— in a widespread air attack on Ukraine targeting energy infrastructure. Trafigura and Vitol are said to be in talks with US refiners to gauge interest in Venezuelan oil. The energy traders obtained preliminary licenses and sales are expected to kick off on
Monday. US LNG exports surged +25% in 2025, to a record 116 million tons, making the US the first country in history to export more than 100 million tons of LNG in a single year. The US now represents ~25% of global LNG exports. WTI +0.8%, Brent +0.8%, US
Nat Gas -0.1%, RBOB +0.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar hit a one-month high, boosted by options demand, ahead of US employment data as well as a Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs.
The key element in the Supreme Court decision will be whether there is a clear path for keeping past and future tariff revenues intact which would be USD positive, according to analysts at Standard Chartered Bank. The euro eased for a fourth straight day after
data showed German exports unexpectedly fell in November. Leveraged buying of euro bearish optionality has been a strong theme this week, according to traders. The yen slid after data showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly grew in November from a
year earlier. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.35%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.8%, Spot Ethereum -0.9%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $120
• Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $128
• Allogene (ALLO) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $5
• Altria (MO) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $63
• American Air (AAL) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $20
• Ardelyx (ARDX) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Array (ARRY) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $12
• Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$3.47
• CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $43
• Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $126
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17
• Cousins Properties (CUZ) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $31
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $600
• DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $11
• Donaldson (DCI) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $120
• Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $49
• Edwards Life (EW) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $97
• Expeditors (EXPD) Raised to Buy at BofA
• FedEx (FDX) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $365
• Generac (GNRC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $199
• H2O America (HTO) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $61
• Host Hotels (HST) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $21
• Independence Realty (IRT) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $22
• Lockheed (LMT) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $605
• Manulife Financial (MFC CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$58
• Marriott Intl (MAR) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $370
• Mid-America (MAA) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $158
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $24
• NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$33.50
• NuScale Power (SMR) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $28
• Ormat (ORA) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $130
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $17
• Quanta Services (PWR) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• RPM International (RPM) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $115
• Schneider National (SNDR) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $32
• SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $151
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $38
• Sotera (SHC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $24
• Southwest Air (LUV) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $60
• Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $20
• UPS (UPS) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $114
• WM (WM) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $260
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $375
• American Homes (AMH) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $37
• American Tower (AMT) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $185
• AXT (AXTI) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $18
• Confluent (CFLT) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Emerson Electric (EMR) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $150
• Equity Residential (EQR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $68
• Essex Property (ESS) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $280
• Freehold Royalties (FRU CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $649
• HealthEquity (HQY) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $89
• Hudson Pacific (HPP) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $11
• iA Financial (IAG CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$184
• iHeartMedia (IHRT) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $3.50
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $20
• Mattel (MAT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $21
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $623
• Nucor (NUE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $180
• Omega Healthcare (OHI) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $45
• On Holding (ONON) Cut to Hold at Williams Trading; PT $47
• Plug Power (PLUG) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $2
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $175
• Regency Centers (REG) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $74
• Scorpio Tankers (STNG) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $194
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Safra; PT $16
• Zillow (ZG) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
• Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $93
• Initiations
• Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Auna (AUNA) Rated New Buy at Inteligo SAB; PT $10.90
• Autodesk (ADSK) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $375
• Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $40
• BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) US Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $24
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Outperform at Telsey; PT $85
• Chipotle (CMG) Reinstated Outperform at Telsey; PT $50
• Claritev Corp (CTEV) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $33
• Con Edison (ED) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $105
• Constellation Energy (CEG) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $440
• Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $10
• Dominion Energy (D) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $65
• Doximity (DOCS) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $59
• DraftKings (DKNG) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $39
• Entergy (ETR) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $108
• Fennec Pharmaceuticals (FRX CN) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Flutter (FLUT) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $294
• Healthpeak Properties (DOC) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $17
• Hinge Health (HNGE) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $68
• LB Pharmaceuticals (LBRX) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $27
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $56
• Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $115
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $73.50
• Omada Health (OMDA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
• Omega Healthcare (OHI) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $54
• Palisade Bio Inc (PALI) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $7
• Phreesia (PHR) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
• RadNet (RDNT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $92
• RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Reinstated Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $95
• Scholar Rock (SRRK) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $55
• SharkNinja (SN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $35
• TIC Solutions (TIC) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Ventas (VTR) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $94
• Vor BioPharma (VOR) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $50
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $41
• Wingstop (WING) Reinstated Buy at Loop Capital; PT $317
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $155

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke