Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET GDP Annualized QoQ, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE Price Index
QoQ, Initial Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Price Index; 10:30ET Elon Musk speaks in Davos; 11:00ET KC Fed Manf. Activity; 1:00ET $21B 10-year TIPS Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Risk Appetite Is Back as Trade Tensions Ease
• Trump officially launched his Board of Peace initiative at Davos
• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy arrived in Davos to meet with Trump
• Putin to discuss Ukraine peace with US envoys today
• Putin is ready to commit Russian assets that remain frozen in the US to rebuild Ukrainian regions
• A storm is set to hit starting tomorrow, plunging Texas into a deep freeze
• ISRAEL AIR FORCE CHIEF: ENTIRE AIR FORCE IS READY AND ALERT
• Natural Gas Futures Jump Over 70% in Three Days

Global stocks are broadly higher as investors cheered easing Greenland tensions and booming AI chip demand. Markets worldwide rebounded as President Trump backed
off tariff threats against Europe linked to his Greenland ambitions—announcing a “framework” deal with NATO and ruling out force—easing geopolitical jitters that had weighed on sentiment earlier in the week. NATO’s chief said a breakthrough over Greenland
was secured without discussing the territory’s sovereignty with President Trump, focusing on regional security in the Arctic region. Secretary General Mark Rutte said Denmark is “completely open” to an increased US footprint. The relief rally was further supported
by robust demand in the AI sector, where booming needs for advanced chips continue to drive gains in tech and related stocks. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is willing to direct its assets frozen in the United States toward rebuilding Ukrainian territories
damaged during the war, provided a peace treaty is signed.
Putin will discuss a possible peace plan for Ukraine as well as Trump’s “Board of Peace” idea with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow today.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are higher, set for a second day of strong gains as a relief rally over President Trump’s pivot on Greenland continued. Names linked to the build-out of AI-infrastructure,
including Micron Technology and Broadcom outperform in premarket trading. United Airlines shares gained over 4% in extended trading, after the carrier reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that topped expectations. GE Aerospace forecast
full-year profit above expectations after strong fourth-quarter results, supported by robust global air travel. The Fed will finally get core PCE data for October and November today. Record-breaking cold across the central and eastern US is fueling the season’s
largest winter storm, threatening to freeze Texas. More than 175 million people across the country will face snow, rain, sleet and ice through the weekend while 230 million will endure temperatures of 20F degrees or lower, according to the US Weather Prediction
Center. StandardAero Inc. (SARO) will replace Frontier Communications Parent Inc. (FYBR) in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading today.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.3%.

In pre-market trading, Abbott (ABT) falls 5% after posting fourth quarter results. Axogen (AXGN) is down 7% after the health care firm said it will offer $85 million
of shares of its common stock. Knight-Swift (KNX) falls 2% after the freight transportation company posted fourth quarter earnings that fell short of expectations. Mobileye (MBLY) drops 6% after the maker of software and hardware technology for automobiles
provided revenue guidance for 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate. Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) slips 1.6% as growth in a key sales metric stagnated in the latest quarter while volume slipped. Rocket Lab (RKLB) falls 2% after the company said qualification
testing of the Stage 1 tank resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial. Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) rises 3% as BTIG upgrades the live entertainment and media company to buy. Venture Global Inc. (VG) is up 10% after the company won a dispute
with Spain’s Repsol SA involving the sale of liquefied natural gas shipments from its export plant in Louisiana.
Moderna (MRNA) rose 4.5% after surging 16% on Wednesday. Intel (INTC) climbed 0.7% ahead of the chip maker’s fourth-quarter earnings, due out after the market
closes.

INTC/XLK: significant outperformance since Christmas

European gauges rise for the first time in five days as Trump abandoned his threat to impose new Greenland-linked tariffs. Construction and telecommunications shares
are leading gains, while mining stocks are the biggest laggards after copper declined to its lowest intraday level in almost two weeks.  Volkswagen shares rise as much as 6.1% after the German carmaker delivered a positive surprise on free cash flow in its
automotive division. Aryzta jumped as much as 14% as analysts see the Swiss baker’s outlook for the coming year as a first step to regain investor trust. Essity drops over 6%, with a miss on sales overshadowing an adjusted Ebitda beat by the Swedish personal
care products producer. Stoxx 600 +1.1%, DAX +1.2%, CAC +1.2%, FTSE 100 +0.5%. Construction +2.3%, Travel & Leisure +1.8%, Telecom +1.8%, Financial Services +1.8%, Autos +1.75%. Basic Resources -0.3%, Energy -0.25%.

Shares in Asia advanced, snapping a three-day losing streak, after Trump retreated from his tariff threat on European nations and investors returned to tech stocks.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, boosted by tech shares after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments at Davos about AI spending fueled optimism for the sector. Huang said that multitrillion-dollar investments will be required to build out global AI infrastructure,
highlighting strong demand. Japanese stocks led gains in the region, while Thailand lagged. Shares of AI-related companies globally moved higher, with SoftBank Group increasing 12% and contributing the most to the Topix’s gain. Disco shares were the top performers
on the Nikkei 225, jumping 17% after the supplier of chipmaking tools reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings on surging demand for AI-related hardware. Nikkei 225 +1.7%, Taiwan +1.6%, Philippines +1.1%, Kospi +0.9%, ASX 200 +0.75%, Topix +0.75%,
Sensex +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%, CSI 300 ~flat. Vietnam -0.15%, Indonesia -0.2%, Thailand -0.45%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed, with 10-year yield +1bp around 4.255% and the curve flat. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims and November personal
income and spending data — which embeds PCE price indexes — and $21 billion 10-year TIPS auction. TIPS new-issue auction follows strong demand for Wednesday’s $13 billion 20-year reopening.

METALS: 

Gold steadied as tensions over Greenland cooled, trading near $4,830 an ounce. Trump’s brinkmanship over Greenland had sparked a diplomatic crisis with European allies
and spooked financial markets, adding to gold’s appeal as a haven asset. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end gold price forecast by more than 10% to $5,400 an ounce, from a prior forecast of $4,900. The bank expects central-bank buying to average
60 tons a month in 2026, with monetary authorities in emerging markets “likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” the analysts said. Copper price spreads continued to unravel on the London Metal Exchange as deliveries
into warehouses in the US and Asia helped ease pressure on buyers. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver +0.5%, Copper futures -0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil fell as traders’ focus turned to the outlook for rising supplies in the US and elsewhere, while the earlier uproar surrounding Greenland tensions continued to
fade. Recent data, including an API report showing a sizable build in US crude inventories (around +3 million barrels last week), has reinforced worries over oversupply in a well-supplied global market. Official data on inventory levels are due later today.
Venezuelan shipments are returning to the global market, while Indian refiner Reliance Industries has placed orders for non-sanctioned Russian crude for delivery in February and March. Brent crude futures fell near $64.00 while WTI breaks back below $60. US
natural gas futures extend record-breaking surge on cold weather. US natural gas surged to the highest since 2022, jumping more than 70% in three days as brutal cold lifts demand amid short covering. A storm is set to hit starting tomorrow, plunging Texas
into a deep freeze that may also disrupt production. WTI -1.5%, Brent -1.4%, US Nat Gas +12.1%, RBOB -1.4%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar weakens against most majors except the yen, as Aussie$ gains amid mounting RBA hike expectations following a surprisingly strong jobs
report. The yen eases as the BOJ started a two-day policy meeting today with economists expecting the central bank to leave policy unchanged. The Norwegian Krone leads gains after Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs steady for the third meeting in a
row, as expected, and continued to signal no rush to lower borrowing costs. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD ~flat, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD +0.65%, NZDUSD +0.6%, USDCHF -0.4%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.6%, USDNOK -0.8%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Callaway Golf Co (CALY) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $19
• Capri Holdings (CPRI) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $32
• Capstone Copper (CS CN) Raised to Buy at Clarksons; PT C$18
• Cencora (COR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $440
• Datadog (DDOG) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $160
• Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Enhabit (EHAB) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $14
• Microchip (MCHP) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $90
• Old National (ONB) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
• ON Semi (ON) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $62
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $35
• Simmons First (SFNC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $23
• SmartFinancial (SMBK) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $48
• Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $110
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT $590
• SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$43
• Tempest Therapeutics Inc (TPST) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $11
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $190
• Umicore (UMI BB) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $6.88
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $546
• Downgrades
• Acadia Health (ACHC) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $15
• AGNC Investment (AGNC) Cut to Neutral at Jones
• Amicus (FOLD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $14.50
• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $83
• Chemed (CHE) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $475
• Crocs (CROX) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Fairfax Financial (FFH CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$2,500
• GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $2.75
• Hyatt (H) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $175
• LCI Industries (LCII) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $149
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) ADRs Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $21
• Qiagen (QGEN) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $54
• SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $90
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Zoetis (ZTS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $135
• Initiations
• 1911 Gold (AUMB CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$2
• Accenture (ACN) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $313
• Bentley Systems (BSY) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $48
• CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $44
• Cognizant (CTSH) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $107
• Costco (COST) Reinstated Add at CTBC Securities; PT $1,050
• Dycom Industries (DY) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $510
• Everus Construction Group (ECG) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
• Evommune (EVMN) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $42
• Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $10
• Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Great Lakes Dredge (GLDD) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $20
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) Resumed Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$43
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $98
• Kratos (KTOS) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $99
• MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $35
• Micron (MU) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Orion Group (ORN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $208
• Rambus (RMBS) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Silicon Motion (SIMO) ADRs Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $28
• White Gold Corp (WGO CN) Reinstated Speculative Buy at Clarus Securities

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke