Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 12:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Iran Edges Toward Nuclear Talks to Avoid War
• Gold and Silver Claw Back Some Losses After Selloff
• Trump Launches $12 Billion Minerals Stockpile to Counter China
• SpaceX in Advanced Talks to Merge With xAI; announcement could come this week
• House lawmakers return to Washington today to pass a funding deal that Trump worked out with Democrats
• Cboe in Talks to Bring Back ‘All-or-Nothing’ Options to Vie With Prediction Markets — WSJ

Global stock markets are lower for a third straight day, influenced by recent volatility in precious metals after aggressive unwinds across commodities. World shares
trimmed some of their early declines today, as the intense, broad-based liquidation in precious metals prompted leveraged investors to offload other holdings to meet margin calls and cover positions. The risk-off move unfolded just before a busy week ahead
featuring key corporate earnings reports, several central bank policy decisions, and a heavy slate of major economic indicators. The precious metals rout—sparked in part by last week’s dramatic unwind from record highs, and reactions to President Trump’s nomination
of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair—has spilled over into equities, commodities, and other risk assets, though some recovery in metals prices has helped pare the selling pressure in shares. Some support was also found from earlier Eurozone growth data. Taiwan has
overtaken China as the market with the top weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by a rally in artificial-intelligence shares.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower with aggressive unwinds across commodities and an earlier crypto rout adding to the risk-off mood. Investors reduced overall equity positioning last week,
although a rotation into cyclicals pushed this group to modestly overweight, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. Positioning in materials and energy has surged to elevated levels, while investors’ holding of cyclicals now exceeds levels seen for mega cap
growth and tech in the wake of the November 2024 US elections, they said. In tech headlines, Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion this year through debt and equity sales to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity. Nvidia CEO Huang said that a proposed
$100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment,” although the company will participate in OpenAI’s latest funding round. Trump is set to launch a strategic critical-minerals stockpile venture, dubbed Project Vault, with $12 billion in seed money
to insulate manufacturers from supply shocks. Meanwhile, the US government stumbled into a partial shutdown Saturday while waiting for the House to approve a funding deal Trump worked out with Democrats. The funding lapse is likely to be short, with the House
returning from a week-long break today. Shares of AstraZeneca, the UK’s biggest drugmaker, will start trading on the NYSE today following a listing upgrade to replace its ADRs.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.75%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall after Bitcoin tumbled over the weekend. US rare-earths stocks are rising as President Trump is set to launch
a strategic critical-minerals stockpile. Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Devon Energy (DVN) are combining to create a US shale producer with an enterprise value of about $58 billion, one of the largest oil and natural gas deals in years. Shares of Coterra are down
3%. Humana (HUM) falls about 2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the health insurer to underweight, citing vulnerability in its Medicare Advantage business. Oracle (ORCL) climbs 4% after Fitch affirmed the company’s long-term issuer default rating at BBB. Walt
Disney (DIS) gained about 1% after reporting sales and profit that beat estimates in the first quarter of its fiscal year, boosted by a record $10 billion in revenue from the division that includes parks and cruises.

European gauges reverse early losses to trade broadly higher. The Stoxx 600 climbs near its closing record set in mid-January as mining shares bounced, while investors
flocked into defensive sectors like insurance and telecoms. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index also traded at an all-time high. Cyclical sectors such as technology and industrial goods are among the biggest laggards. Energy shares dropped as crude fell after OPEC+ kept
March output plans unchanged. Among individual stocks, BFF Bank SpA sank 40% after it cut financial targets for the current year and the departure of its chief executive officer. Pandora A/S rose as much as 9.9% amid a continued drop in silver prices. Julius
Baer shares fall as much as 5% after reporting lower profit.  Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.6%. Food & Bev +1.6%, Telecom +1.5%, Insurance +1.4%. Technology -0.5%, Energy -0.3%.

Shares in Asia fell as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with high-flying technology names and shares linked to precious metals contributing heavily to the selloff.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 2.1%. South Korea and Indonesia saw notable declines, partly tied to broader commodity and China-related flows. South Korea’s Kospi, a bellwether for the artificial-intelligence trade, plunged over 5%. Stocks in Indonesia
also resumed a rout, weighed down by weaker commodity prices, complicating efforts by regulators to shore up confidence after last week’s wild ride. Meanwhile, Indian stocks traded higher, recouping some of the losses seen during a special session on Sunday
— when the government announced a budget proposal to hike taxes on equity derivatives trades. Chinese telecom shares fall after the nation adjusted the VAT rate on several telecommunications services to 9% from 6%. In the week ahead, traders will be watching
for central bank decisions in Australia and India. Kospi -5.25%, Indonesia -4.9%, Hang Seng Tech -3.4%, Hang Seng Index -2.2%, CSI 300 -2.1%, Taiwan -1.4%, Nikkei 225 -1.25%, Vietnam -1.2%, ASX 200 -1%, Philippines -0.5%, Singapore -0.25%. Sensex +1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are roughly flat with the curve just slightly steeper. Focus remains on risk assets, with stocks staging a global retreat and precious-metals volatility
continuing. US session highlights include manufacturing PMIs and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Treasury coupon auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year supply, starting Feb. 10; department is scheduled to release quarterly borrowing estimates
at 3:00EST.

METALS: 

Precious metals clawed back some losses after another heavy sell-off in Asian trading hours, as traders paused to assess the abrupt unwinding of a record-breaking
rally. Spot gold is down by about 3%, after tumbling 10% earlier, extending its biggest slump in more than a decade on Friday. Silver remains lower, after sliding 16% earlier and posting a record intraday drop on Friday. Retail traders had piled into the iShares
Silver Trust (SLV) in the largest one-day net inflow on record last Thursday. Many investors had built up leveraged bets, further reinforcing the cascade of selling. Along with margin calls on speculators who held futures contracts, exchanged-traded products
such as the 2x leveraged ProShares Ultra Silver (ticker AGQ), amped up the rally on the way up and had to quickly unwind billions of dollars of silver positions. AGQ assets under management surged to record levels (around $5–5.3 billion), equating to over
$10 billion in effective silver futures exposure. Dealers said pressure on a number of silver futures funds in China added to the rout late last week, which was exacerbated today by the CME raising margins on a number of futures contracts, including silver
and gold.  Spot gold -3%, Silver -5.4%, Copper futures -1.6%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil fell with other commodities, with easing US-Iran tensions also contributing. Brent tumbled about 5% after President Trump said Washington is “seriously talking”
with Iran, perhaps lessening the risk of a US military strike on the country. Iranian officials indicated that negotiations with the United States on a potential new nuclear agreement could begin in the coming days, amid an intensifying round of diplomatic
efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent a broader regional conflict. Senior Iranian officials emphasized readiness for diplomacy—potentially involving indirect or mediated exchanges—while insisting on no preconditions, fairness, and a path to sanctions
relief. Gaps persist, particularly on issues like ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and enrichment levels, but the developments reflect a concerted push to avert escalation. OPEC+ ratified plans to keep production steady in March — the last part of a three-month
supply freeze. WTI -5%, Brent -4.7%, US Nat Gas -17.1%, RBOB -4.5%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is higher versus its Group-of-10 peers as precious metal prices and equities rebounded from intraday lows. Commodity currencies came
under pressure during Asia hours, but the moves lost traction after the London open. The yen softens as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought to clarify her comments about the weak yen, noting that a softer currency is a “huge opportunity” for export
industries. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD -0.25%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF +0.5%, USDCAD +0.25%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.5%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %. Bitcoin hit a 10-month low in Asia trading before reversing losses. Bitcoin steadied after shedding nearly 13% since the start of
the year, a plunge that briefly pushed it toward levels last seen when Trump retook the White House. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $104
• ASM Intl (ASM NA) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $980
• Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $319
• Church & Dwight (CHD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $100
• Darling Ingredients (DAR) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $62
• Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $213.39
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $32
• McDonald’s (MCD) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $360
• Mosaic (MOS) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $36
• ResMed (RMD) Raised to Buy at Morgans Financial Limited; PT $47.73
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT C$238.84
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT C$104
• Downgrades
• Autoliv (ALV) Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT $130
• Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (BDGI CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord
• Best Buy (BBY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $76
• BioNTech (BNTX) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $113
• Canadian National (CNR CN) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT C$144
• Chevron (CVX) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $180
• Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $130
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• Fortinet (FTNT) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $85
• Humana (HUM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $174
• Independent Bank Corp (INDB) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $80
• International Paper (IP) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $44
• Kaspi.kz (KSPI KZ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $87
• Prosperity Banc (PB) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $68
• PTC Inc. (PTC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $162
• Initiations
• American Bitcoin (ABTC) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $4
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $50
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $66
• Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $30
• Cybin (HELP CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$29.88
• Here Group Ltd (HERE) ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $6.50
• KLA Corp (KLAC) Rated New Neutral at CTBC Securities; PT $1,750
• kneat.com (KSI CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$6
• Luca Mining Corp (LUCA CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• Micron (MU) Rated New Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $500
• Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $282
• Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $43
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $660
• Stewart Information (STC) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Synergy CHC (SNYR) Rated New Buy at Ascendiant Capital Markets; PT $5
• Teradyne (TER) Rated New Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $400
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $43

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke