Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment; 12:00ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks on economic outlook; 3:00ET
Consumer Credit

Highlights and News:  

• Trump prefers diplomacy with Iran but warns he has military options
• IRAN GOING TO SECOND ROUND OF CONSULTATIONS WITH OMAN MINISTER
• Iranian TV: Nuclear talks with Washington in Muscat could extend for days
• World Economic Forum investigates its CEO over Epstein links
• US corporations laid off over 108k employees, highest January since 2009
• CHINA ENTITIES BANNED FROM UNAPPROVED CRYPTO ISSUANCE OVERSEAS
• Exxon Mobil and Chevron are setting their sights on expanding production in nations tied to OPEC

Global stocks turned higher following reports from Iranian media that discussions would emphasize “broad topics,” though uncertainty lingers over whether the parties
can truly overcome their significant divergences. Tasnim reports that the second round of discussions between the Iranian delegation and Oman’s foreign minister has concluded. Witkoff is now holding consultations with the Omani foreign minister. The White
House said on Thursday that diplomacy is President Trump’s preferred choice for dealing with Iran and he will wait to see whether a deal can be struck at high-stakes talks but also warned that he has military options at his disposal. The Reserve Bank of India
kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, signaling an end to its easing cycle as the economy gets a boost from higher government spending and a surprise US trade deal. Meanwhile, during trilateral talks involving the United States, Ukraine, and
Russia, the parties agreed to exchange prisoners for the first time in five months as they sought to end their four-year conflict. Talks were making progress, with results expected “in the coming weeks,” Trump’s special envoy said.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures erase an earlier decline to trade higher as precious metals and cryptocurrencies climb after falling sharply on Thursday. S&P 500 contracts erased a decline of as much
as 1% as dip buyers stepped in, betting that concerns about artificial intelligence’s potential disruptions and the hefty capital expenditure plans from leading AI players were overdone. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 advanced after the index’s biggest three-day
slump since April. Amazon.com dropped over 7% in pre-market trading on plans to spend $200 billion this year on AI infrastructure, an increase that outpaced cloud revenue growth. Bank of America says investors should favor small and mid-cap stocks over Big
Tech, summarizing its view as “long Detroit, short Davos.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.7%, Russell 2000 +1.4%, DJI +0.6%

In pre-market trading, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is down 7% after the company announced plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers, chips
and other equipment, worrying investors that its colossal bet on artificial intelligence may not pay off in the long run. AI infrastructure stocks rally after Amazon’s massive capex forecast. Gainers include AMD (AMD)  +2%. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks rally
as Bitcoin rebounded after a selloff that briefly dragged the token to a more than 50% retreat from its October peak. Bill Holdings (BILL) rises 12% after the payments-automation company raised its full-year forecast. Bloom Energy (BE) rises 13% after the
manufacturer of solid-oxide fuel cells gave a forecast for 2026 revenue that beat. Encompass Health (EHC) shares rise 18% in extended trading after the rehab hospital chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat. Hims & Hers
Health (HIMS) falls 8% after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said his agency will take “swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products.” Impinj (PI) falls 27% after the semiconductor device
company gave an outlook that is much weaker than expected, given an inventory overbuild. Molina (MOH) tumbles 25% after the health insurer forecast 2026 profit that was less than half of Wall Street’s expectations. Reddit (RDDT) climbs 8% after the social-media
company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations across key metrics. Roblox (RBLX) jumps 8% after the video-game company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive. Stellantis (STLA) plunges 27% after
the carmaker said a business reset resulted in charges of around €22.2 billion for the second half of 2025.

ORCL is very oversold and nearly at the 200 wee mvg avg which has been pivotal area

Shares in Asia pared their initial declines but still headed for a weekly slide. Japanese stocks rebounded from an early dip to close higher, leading a partial recovery
across Asian markets—though overall risk appetite remains fragile. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% before ending little changed. Stocks in Hong Kong dropped and mainland China extended its retreat. Adding to uncertainty in Japan is an upcoming
snap lower-house election on Sunday, although polls suggest strong support for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her government. Thailand will also be heading to the polls for a general election, with spending plans and measures to support growth among investors’
top priorities. Shares in India nudged higher after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, signaling an end to its easing cycle. TOPIX +1.3%, Thailand +0.6%, Sensex +0.3%, Philippines +0.1%. Taiwan -0.05%, CSI 300 -0.6%, Singapore -0.8%,
Hang Seng Index -1.2%, Kospi -1.1%, Vietnam -1.5%, ASX 200 -2%, Indonesia -2.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses led by front-end and belly tenors, flattening the yield curve and unwinding a portion of Thursday’s large steepening rally. US yields
are 1bp-3bp cheaper on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flatter by around 1bp, 10-year yields up 2 bp to 4.20%: Treasury curve is getting close to steepest in four years. Treasury coupon auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year sales totaling
$125 billion beginning Tuesday.

METALS: 

Precious metals bounce back after touching fresh lows. Spot silver is up more than 6% higher on the day near $75.50 an ounce after tumbling as much as 9.6%, while
spot gold adds more than 2% to trade over $4,900. Silver lurched between losses and gains, dropping nearly 10% before snapping back, as a lack of liquidity led to wild swings in a market struggling to find a floor. A sharp reduction in Chinese buying over
the past week means silver has struggled to find support, with prices in the country flipping to a discount against international benchmarks. The more liquid market for gold has coped better than silver. Many banks and asset managers have reiterated bullish
long-term outlooks for the yellow metal this week. Spot gold +2.8%, Silver +6.7%, Copper futures are flat.  

ENERGY:   

Oil fluctuated as traders eyed the outcome of talks between Iran and the US, with Tehran signaling there wouldn’t be a quick resolution to tensions between the two
sides. Iran’s state-run news agency said a first round of indirect talks in Oman focused on “managing the current situation” with the US and advancing negotiations. Oman said it held separate talks with US and Iran delegations to create the appropriate conditions
for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations. Saudi Arabia cut prices for buyers in Asia by less than expected in a sign the kingdom has faith in demand for its barrels, although prices have still been reduced to the lowest since late-2020.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are setting their sights on expanding production in nations tied to OPEC, including some of the world’s riskiest geopolitical hotspots, as President Trump’s assertive foreign policy helps them strike deals. WTI crude futures are slightly
lower near $63.00 a barrel, reversing a gain above $64.50. WTI -0.4%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas +3.7%, RBOB +0.4%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied while currencies sensitive to moves in commodity prices lead gains after precious metals staged a recovery and stocks reverse
earlier losses. The Norwegian krone and Australian dollar are the best performing G-10 currencies, reflecting a rebound in risk sentiment. The yen is little changed ahead of the Japanese election on Sunday. Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu highlighted
the need for further increases to the benchmark interest rate to complete the process of normalizing policy settings. The drifts higher as the European Central Bank is monitoring the euro’s recent rally, but Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras sees
no cause for alarm. US$ Index is flat, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD +0.9%, NZDUSD +0.7%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.9%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %.  Bitcoin rebounded from a 16-month low after dipping to test the key $60,000 support level, as the worldwide sell-off in tech stocks—which
had triggered widespread liquidations of high-risk positions across markets—began showing early signs of stabilization.
Bitcoin rallies back above $66,000 after dropping more than 50% from its October peak.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Ares Management (ARES) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $155
• Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $40
• Envista Holdings (NVST) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $35
• Estee Lauder (EL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $120
• JPMorgan (JPM) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $319
• Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $85
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $105
• Snap (SNAP) Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT $5.50
• Vistra Corp (VST) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $205
• Downgrades
• Amazon (AMZN) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $175
• Cut to Neutral at Fubon; PT $240
• ARC Resources (ARX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$27
• Auna (AUNA) Cut to Neutral at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $7
• Banco de Chile (CHILE CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $48
• Canada Goose (GOOS CN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT C$13.69
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT C$16
• Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $12.80
• Crown Holdings (CCK) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $115
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $10
• Gladstone Capital (GLAD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $21
• Hub Group (HUBG) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $29
• Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT $27
• Impinj (PI) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $112
• Kinetik (KNTK) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $43
• Linde (LIN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $455
• Methanex (MX CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$71.10
• MSC Industrial (MSM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $95
• Norfolk Southern (NSC) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $342
• Old Dominion (ODFL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
• Ribbon (RBBN) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $2.90
• Rogers Sugar (RSI CN) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank; PT C$6
• Russel Metals (RUS CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$50.50
• Suncor (SU CN) Cut to Sell at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$64
• Initiations
• Caterpillar (CAT) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $800
• Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMC CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$9
• JBS (JBS) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $19.50
• Jumia (JMIA) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $18
• Merit Medical (MMSI) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $107
• Nanobiotix SA (NANO FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Novagold Resources (NG CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• Primaris REIT (PMZ-U CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$20
• Titan Mining (TI CN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT C$8.90

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke