Our View

I guess this is the new normal, but Friday’s big rally didn’t stop bond yields from moving higher. The 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 1 basis point to around 3.495%–3.50%, the 10-year yield generally ticked higher by roughly 3–4 basis points to close around 4.206%–4.22%, while the 30-year yield saw minimal change or a slight uptick to around 4.85%.

Despite the big rallies, the ES dropped in three out of the last four weeks, and the NQ logged its fourth straight losing week, falling nearly 3%. Is all forgiven? I’m not quite sure about that. Can the ES and NQ keep going up? I do think they can, but this week has a lot of economic reports, and there is still ongoing friction between Iran and Trump’s armada.

Dax Trader, who is a prolific chartist, told me to run an S&P comparison chart from September 1, 1986, to the end of December 1987, and from April 7, 2025, to February 6, 2026. I have seen him make incredible calls in the past, and he calls this his retirement trade.

I took his idea and ran it on ChatGPT—below is what I came up with. I think this could be done better in a weekly chart. If the ES and NQ are at their all-time highs on March 16, 2026, you buy some puts or sell a call spread. He thinks if it works, we could go back to the April 7, 2025 lows.

The YM didn’t fall as much over the last month and roared through 50,000 on Friday. I think if there was any rotation, it was buy YM (up 2.46%) and Russell (up 3.52%), with the ES (up 1.94%) and NQ (up 2.08%). All four markets moved sharply higher, but as I showed you above, the ES is basically back to where it closed on 12/29 and is still facing a lot of resistance above 7000.00.

Our lean: I’m not sure this will apply, but I think this goes back to how the ES tends to go sideways to lower after a big rally. I do think the ES is going to new highs, but it rallied 205 points from Thursday’s Globex low and closed up 106.50 points on Friday. That is a lot of wood to chop.

I also think it’s important to keep an eye on the rotations. At the end of the day, I am a cautious bull.

And lastly, while it is a ways off, there is going to be a lot of thrashing as the November 3 midterm elections near.

Here are today’s #Claude ES levels:

RESISTANCE LEVELS (highest to lowest, nearest at bottom):

KEY SUPPORT LEVELS (nearest first):

CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT:

TRADING IMPLICATIONS:

One of the things I’ve said quite often is that President Trump has a lot to say about everything, but he never says anything about the $38.6 trillion deficit: US Debt Clock

Right now the US pays $90.1 billion a month—or roughly $3 billion a day on interes. Interest payments have become the second-largest expense in the federal budget, trailing only Social Security. As of early 2026, interest costs have surpassed spending on both National Defense ($267 billion) and Medicare ($254 billion) for the same quarterly period.

For real-time updates and detailed historical data, you can visit the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data portal or track specific debt components via the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Market Recap

The ES traded down to 6751.50 on Globex with Bitcoin leading the way and opened FRYday’s regular session at 6856.25, down 35.50 points or -0.56%.

As you know, I don’t mind writing, but there is no way I can do all the swings. After the open, the ES traded 6850.00 and went straight up. By 9:50 it traded 6907.25, pulled back to the 6872.25 level at 10:15, rallied up to 6912.75 at 12:45, pulled back to the 6885.25 level at 10:55, traded up to 6937.75 at 12:50, pulled back to 6928.00, traded up to 6938.75 at 1:50, pulled back to 6929.50 at 2:15, rallied up to 6953.75, and traded 6952.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $3.4 billion to buy.

It bee-lined up to 6965.60, dropped down to 6947.50 at 3:55, and traded 6948.75 on the 4:00 cash close. After the 4:00 cash close, the ES traded down to 6942.75 and settled at 6952.75, up 132 points or +1.94%, up 205 points from its 6751.50 Globex low and up 106.50 points from its day session low.

The NQ settled at 25,163.25, up 512.25, up 2.08%. The YM settled at 50,205, up 1207 points or +2.46%; from its Globex low to day session high it rallied 1503 points. The RTY settled at 2677.90, up 91.10 points or +3.52%, and up 117.30 points from its 2566.60 Globex low. Bitcoin rose 10%, retaking much of Thursday’s losses to trade near $70,000.

While you may not have seen this, I went into our free MrTopStep Pit Room chat after 10:30 and posted this:

In the end, it was like a battlefield—charging down and then charging up.

In terms of the ES’s and NQ’s overall tone, the rally was decided after Thursday’s close and during the plunge on Globex. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, 1.78 million contracts traded—the lowest volume in the last 7 sessions.

As you all know, when the ES and NQ move up or down sharply, I like to point out how many points and the percentage moves and how many days up or down. Sure, there were some extreme moves, but at the end of the day, the ES and NQ have remained within their respective trading ranges.

On 1/23/26, the ES settled at 6945.75. On 1/30/26, the ES settled at 6965.75. And on 02/03/26, it settled at 6961.50. I don’t want to make this sound easy—because it’s not—but there was a clear signal after Friday’s gap-up open. They gapped higher and went straight up. To me, that meant the crowd was short.

Earnings have been a clear tailwind for stocks this quarter, although market reactions have been mixed. On the upside, Nvidia gained 7.9%, Caterpillar added 7.1%, and 3M rose 4.6%. On the downside, Amazon.com fell more than 5% after announcing plans to spend roughly $200 billion this year on data centers and AI infrastructure, renewing concerns over rising capex.

The Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks, which shed nearly $3 trillion in market value over the prior week amid worries about AI spending and delayed returns, rebounded sharply on Friday, surging almost $1 trillion as some recovery took hold.

Q4 2025 earnings season for the S&P 500 is well underway. As of February 6, 2026, about 59% of the index—more than 150 companies—have reported results. Of those companies, 76% beat EPS expectations, in line with the 10-year average, pushing blended year-over-year EPS growth to 13.0%, up significantly from the pre-season estimate of 8.3%. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth and the tenth straight quarter of positive year-over-year growth.

On the revenue side, results have also been strong. 73% of reporting companies beat revenue estimates, driving blended revenue growth to 8.8% year over year. Profit margins remain elevated, with some analyses placing net margins near 13.2%, reflecting resilient corporate fundamentals.

Excluding the Magnificent Seven, earnings growth is more moderate—around +4.6%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence—but participation has broadened across sectors such as Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. Forward estimates remain constructive, with projections calling for roughly ~14.1% EPS growth in calendar year 2026.

On Tap

Monday, Feb 9

Tuesday, Feb 10

Wednesday, Feb 11

Thursday, Feb 12

Friday, Feb 13

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES H

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6915.00. This remains the key pivot for today. Trading below this level keeps the tone defensive and favors selling strength rather than chasing bounces.

ES is currently trading around 6936.25, attempting to stabilize just above the overnight lows but still below key resistance. Failure to hold above 6939.50 keeps pressure on the downside, with 6811.50 as the lower range target. A sustained break below that level opens the door to 6785.50 and then 6751.50.

On the upside, initial resistance is at 6952.75, followed by 6965.50. A reclaim and hold above 7018.50 would shift momentum higher and put 7115.75 in play. Overall, the ES remains bearish below 6915.00. Bulls need acceptance back above that level to argue for a more meaningful recovery, otherwise rallies are vulnerable to renewed selling.

NQ H

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,990.25. This level defines today’s directional bias and remains the key pivot for sentiment.

NQ is currently trading near 25,047.00, slightly above the bull/bear line after a sharp selloff and rebound. Holding above 24,990.25 keeps the door open for stabilization and rotation higher, but the structure remains fragile given the recent downside momentum.

On the downside, initial support sits at 24,432.00, followed by 24,239.75. A failure to hold these levels would likely open the door toward 23,906.75. Acceptance below 24,239.75 would signal renewed bearish pressure.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 25,163.25 and then 25,222.00. Above there, look for a test of 25,548.50, which marks the upper range target. Bulls need sustained trade back above 25,222.00 to regain control and shift momentum.

Overall, the NQ remains in a defensive posture despite the bounce. Bias stays mixed-to-bearish below 25,548.50, with traders respecting 24,990.25 as the line that separates stabilization from another leg lower.

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, February 6, 2026

“FRYday” lived up to its hype as the PTG trading room, led by David Dube, navigated a textbook Cycle Day 3 Squeeze Play—turning what began as a tough uphill battle into a high-velocity bullish breakout session.

Pre-Market Prep

Execution Highlights

Trade of the Day: The Squeeze Play

David framed the day’s opportunity early:

This forecast played out exactly as expected, with traders reporting strong execution:

Lessons & Takeaways

Closing Notes

One of the strongest examples of planning meeting execution in the PTG room. The 3-Day Cycle continues to prove its edge for prepared traders.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, February 9, 2026

Market Recap & Key Levels – Monday

Futures Focus – ES