Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations; 1:30ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Miran
speaks; 3:15ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 5:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

• China Urges Banks to Curb US Treasuries Exposure
• Novo Nordisk Seeks Permanent Ban on Hims From Selling Unapproved, Compounded Drugs
• The semiconductor industry will reach $1 trillion in revenue this year for the first time ever (Source: SIA)
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees AI Opportunities After Tech Selloff
• Thailand’s ruling conservative party has clinched a solid election win as progressives flop
• Bessent Sees ‘Unruly’ Chinese Trading Behind Gold Price Swings
• Seahawks are the first Super-Bowl champion to go an entire postseason without committing a turnover

Global stock markets show a mixed but generally positive tone, with strong gains in Asia driven by political developments in Japan. Japanese stocks surged to record
highs following Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide victory in Sunday’s general election. Thailand’s ruling conservative Bhumjaithai Party secured a surprisingly strong victory in Sunday’s general election, achieving the first decisive win this century for
a party closely aligned with the country’s royalist establishment and delivering a resounding setback to the rising progressive movement. Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over
concentration risks and market volatility. In a bid to ease escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran and prevent a potential military clash, President Trump announced that the US and Iran would hold another round of talks early this week. Iran’s atomic
chief said Tehran could dilute its highly enriched uranium in exchange for all sanctions being lifted, according to ISNA.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated after a volatile week. Stocks will remain choppy, according to Goldman Sachs’ trading desk, with systematic strategies expected to be net sellers. A renewed
decline could trigger about $33 billion of selling this week, they said. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says AI adopters remain under-appreciated by the market, while AI enablers still have fundamental tailwinds. His team sees a boost for mega-cap tech from
the lower US dollar given its exposure to international sales. This week’s incoming economic data is poised to play a crucial role in shaping market and Federal Reserve expectations for monetary policy, as reports on jobs, inflation and consumer spending all
land in the coming days. In corporate news, Nvidia-backed Firmus Technologies secured a $10-billion loan from a group including Blackstone-led funds to boost its data center rollout. Hims & Hers Health shares are plunging after it stopped selling a copycat
version of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy weight-loss pill. Kroger is said to plan to appoint ex-Walmart executive Greg Foran as the grocer’s next CEO.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P ~flat, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 flat, DJI -0.05%

In pre-market trading, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) falls 3% after fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda from the steel company missed estimates. Eli Lilly (LLY) rises 1% after
agreeing to buy US biotech Orna Therapeutics Inc. for up to $2.4 billion in cash. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) tumbles 20% after the telehealth company said it will stop selling its recently launched copycat version of the new Wegovy weight-loss pill. Kroger
Co. (KR) is up 5% as the supermarket chain named Greg Foran as its chief executive officer. Foran led Walmart US for six years Kyndryl Holdings (KD) sinks 40% after the information-technology services company spun off from IBM reported adjusted earnings per
share for the third quarter that missed. Li Auto’s ADRs (LI) fall 3% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to underweight. Monday.com (MNDY) slumps 14% after the software company forecast revenue for the first quarter; the guidance missed the average analyst
estimate. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) gains 3% as Citizens upgrades the online personal finance company to market outperform. Tegna Inc. (TGNA) rises 9% after President Trump backed television broadcaster Nexstar Media Group’s proposed $3.5 billion acquisition
of the company.

European gauges lost early gains but move back into the green, lifted by Novo Nordisk A/S shares after a US competitor scrapped a copycat Wegovy
weight-loss pill. Banks and miners outperform, while the personal care and retail sectors lag. InPost shares jump as much as 14% after Advent, FedEx, A&R and PPF announced plans for a €15.60 share buyout. Novo Nordisk surged as much as 8.6% after Hims & Hers
Health pulled a copycat version of the new Wegovy weight-loss pill. STMicro shares rise ~8% after Amazon deepened its ties with the Franco-Italian chipmaker to secure semiconductor technologies for its data centers. In political news, Morgan McSweeney, Keir
Starmer’s chief of staff, quit on Sunday, saying he took responsibility for advising the Prime Minister to choose Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US despite his known links to Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer remains under pressure, with the Epstein saga far
from over and tough local elections looming. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.05%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Banks +1.3%, Basic Resources +1.2%, +1.1%. Retail -0.9%, Real Estate -0.9%, Insurance -0.6%.

Shares in Asia gained, as Japanese stocks rallied to a record and South Korea led a wider surge in technology shares. Japan’s Nikkei jumped the most since April after
Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party achieved the biggest post-war victory for a single party in a general election in Japan. Takaichi’s win is expected to benefit sectors including AI, semiconductors, and defense on her expansionary fiscal policies. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index rose 2.1% to a fresh high. Korean stocks surged by more than 4% following report that Samsung Electronics will start mass production of HBM4 chips after the Lunar New Year holiday. In Thailand, stocks surged as much as 4% after an election win
by the ruling party paved the way for more policy clarity. Australia imposed a 10% tariff on steel ceiling frames from China, following an investigation by the nation’s Anti-Dumping Commission. Kospi +4.1%, Nikkei 225 +3.9%, Thailand +3.5%, Taiwan +2%, ASX200
+1.8%, Hang Seng Index +1.8%, CSI 300 +1.6%, Indonesia +1.2%, Sensex +0.6%, Singapore +0.5%. Vietnam -0.05%, Philippines -0.6%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are narrowly mixed, tracking a curve-steepening gilt selloff following the resignation of a second senior aide to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other factors
include report that China’s banks were directed to limit holding of US government bonds. US long-end yields are 2bp-3bp higher on the day with shorter maturities little changed, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by about 2bp. Delayed January jobs report is
ahead on Wednesday, and quarterly new-issue auctions start Tuesday. Treasuries fell after reports emerged that Chinese regulators have advised the country’s financial institutions to scale back their holdings of US government bonds, citing worries about market
volatility and concentration risks. According to sources, officials encouraged banks to restrict new purchases of US Treasuries and directed those with significant existing exposure to gradually reduce their positions. The guidance, communicated verbally to
major banks in recent weeks, does not apply to China’s official state-held Treasuries and is framed as a measure to diversify risk rather than a geopolitical move. While the request was framed around diversifying risk, it may reinforce a recent global trend
that has seen the likes of India and Brazil lower their exposure to the world’s biggest bond market amid growing doubts about the appeal of US assets.

METALS: 

Precious metals continue to rally with silver up as much as 5%. Spot gold climbed to hold above $5,000 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar, as investors shifted
attention to this week’s lineup of key US economic reports that could reshape views on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited Chinese traders as a reason behind last week’s wild swings in the gold market. “Things have
gotten a little unruly in China,” Bessent said on Fox News. “They’re having to tighten margin requirements, so gold looks to me kind of like a classical, speculative blowoff.”  Spot gold +1.1%, Silver +3.3%, Copper futures +0.1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied after the US and Iran pledged to continue indirect talks, easing oil supply fears, but India stepping away from Russian oil purchases is giving
prices a floor. Brent rose toward $68.50 a barrel before paring gains, after losing almost 4% last week, as Iran and the US held talks to defuse tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. Trump is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Feb. 11, while preparing
tariffs against countries doing business with Tehran. WTI +0.05%, Brent +0.1%, US Nat Gas -6.2%, RBOB +0.9%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slid after Chinese regulators were said to call on banks to scale back holdings of US debt due to concerns about concentration risks
and market volatility. The yen strengthened after FX chief Mimura says government is watching market moves with high sense of urgency. Thai baht outperforms Asian EM currencies following ruling conservative party’s election win. Keir Starmer pledged to press
on with his agenda as the departure of a second senior aide left the PM’s grip on power increasingly tenuous. The crisis is prompting hedge funds to ramp up bets against the pound. US$ Index -0.5%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.6%, USDJPY -0.7%, AUDUSD +0.6%, NZDUSD
+0.4%, USDCHF -0.8%, USDCAD -0.5%, USDSEK -0.7%, USDNOK -0.8%.

Spot Bitcoin -2.3%, Spot Ethereum -2.6%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Align Technology (ALGN) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $200
• Ares Management (ARES) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $157
• Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $34
• GeneDx Holdings Corp (WGS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Green Plains (GPRE) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $17
• Medtronic (MDT) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $121
• Oracle (ORCL) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $180
• Park-Ohio Holdings (PKOH) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $37
• Robinhood (HOOD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $125
• Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $84
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• Stellantis (STLA) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Timken (TKR) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $130
• TPG (TPG) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $75
• Viatris (VTRS) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $18
• ZTO Express (ZTO) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $26.60
• Downgrades
• Corteva (CTVA) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $80
• Crown Holdings (CCK) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $126
• First Bancorp NC (FBNC) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $64
• Li Auto (LI) ADRs Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $14
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $328
• Teradyne (TER) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $308
• United Community Banks (UCB) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $88
• Zions (ZION) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $65
• Initiations
• AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$16
• Americas Gold & Silver Corp (USA CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$13
• Beta Bionics (BBNX) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $24
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT C$142
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $38
• Dave (DAVE) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $250
• Fermi (FRMI) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $30
• Immix Biopharma (IMMX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• MARA Holdings (MARA) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
• StoneCo (STNE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $22
• Terawulf (WULF) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37
• Terns (TERN) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $58
• Xpeng (XPEV) ADRs Reinstated Buy at GF Securities; PT $25.13
• Zura Bio (ZURA) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $15

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke