Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Unemployment Report; 10:15ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks; 11:00ET Netanyahu to meet Trump at the White House;  1:00ET 10-year auction; 2:00ET Federal Budget Balance; 4:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks

Highlights and News:  

• US TREASURIES SLUMP ACROSS MATURITIES AFTER JOBS DATA
• Trump tariffs face House rebuke as Johnson fails to block votes
• EU Lawmakers Advance US Trade Deal With Fresh Conditions
• JP Morgan sees potential for rebound in high-quality software stocks
• India Seizes Three Tankers Involved in Oil Smuggling in First Action Against Dark Fleet
• TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO APPEAL OFFSHORE WIND FARM COURT RULINGS
• Mass Shooting at High School in Canada Leaves 10 People Dead

Global stocks are higher in cautious trading ahead of the delayed January US jobs report, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations. Senior European Parliament
lawmakers have agreed on modifications to the EU-US trade deal, bringing it closer to approval before a planned vote this month. A sunset clause will be included in the deal, giving the US six months to lower the current 50% tariff on products using steel
and aluminum. If the US fails to lower the tariffs for products using these metals to 15%, the EU will consider resuming levies on US industrial imports and some agrifood products. US House lawmakers are set to vote today on whether to reject some of Trump’s
tariff policies, starting with a resolution opposing levies on Canada. Trump is due to meet Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House today. Netanyahu is expected to urge a tougher, broader approach to limiting Iran’s military activities across the Middle East
beyond just its nuclear program.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures showed little direction after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, with investors assessing if today’s jobs data might push the Fed toward faster
rate reductions. JPMorgan’s trading desk expects the delayed January data to give a small boost to stocks. Trump’s tariffs encountered resistance in the House after Speaker Mike Johnson couldn’t stop procedural votes against them. Tuesday’s defeat of a leadership-backed
rule (217-214 against) clears the path for Congress to vote on overturning key tariffs, possibly today, beginning with Canada. Trump is privately contemplating an exit from the USMCA trade pact he brokered, sources say, heightening doubts about the deal’s
longevity amid critical trilateral renegotiations. JPMorgan strategists said the severity of the pullback in software stocks has created opportunities for investors to position for a rebound in higher-quality stocks.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.35%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.3%

In pre-market trading, Astera Labs (ALAB) falls 11% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported its fourth-quarter results. Beta Technologies (BETA) climbs
18% after Amazon.com Inc. disclosed a stake in the electric-powered aircraft manufacturer. Centrus Energy (LEU) falls 8% after the uranium company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share fell short of analyst estimates. Cloudflare (NET) gains 14% after the software
company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations and it gave a bullish revenue forecast. Humana (HUM) falls 6% after forecasting full-year profit that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Kraft Heinz (KHC) falls 6% after pausing work on its planned
separation. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) rises 11% after the semiconductor device company gave a first-quarter revenue forecast that was much stronger than expected. Lyft (LYFT) falls 17% after issuing a disappointing forecast that missed Wall Street expectations.
Mattel (MAT) slumps 26% after the toymaker’s 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast missed the average analyst estimate, triggering a downgrade at JPMorgan. Moderna (MRNA) falls 10% after US regulators refused to review its novel mRNA flu vaccine. Rapid7
(RPD) falls 22% after the software company’s outlook was seen as disappointing. Robinhood (HOOD) declines 7% after the fintech company reported net revenue for the fourth quarter that missed. Teradata (TDC) gains 15% after the database management company reported
fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) rises 19% after the power equipment company forecast adjusted earnings.

APPLOVIN reports after the close

European gauges reverse early weakness to trade mixed, as shares in software firms and wealth managers continued to slide on AI disruption fears.
The technology sector lags, weighed on by software firm Dassault Systemes (-20%) after its outlook disappointed, while energy stocks outperform, with Siemens Energy rallying to a record high. Ahold Delhaize shares gain as much as 9.9% as the Dutch retail store
operator reported margin beats across the board. Siemens Energy gained as much as 6.5% to its highest intraday level on record after first-quarter earnings beat. Gerresheimer shares plunge as much as 35%, hitting their lowest level since 2009, after the German
maker of packaging for medicines and cosmetics delayed the publication of its 2025 earnings. St James’s Place fell ~11%, leading a drop in European wealth managers over worries that artificial intelligence will disrupt their businesses. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX
-0.3%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.7%. Basic Resources +2.5%, Energy +2.3%, Utilities +1.7%. Financial Services -1.9%, Banks -1.5%, Media -1.5%.

Shares in Asia were higher with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing to a fresh record, led by technology shares, as investors continued to rotate away from US assets
amid a weaker dollar. Benchmarks in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Australia advanced, while those in mainland China slipped. Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. Bucking the trend, SK Hynix was among the major drags on the broader index following a report
China’s CXMT plans to allocate a chunk of its DRAM capacity to produce superfast HBM3 chips that are used in AI. Samsung reversed earlier losses after a top executive said that the company is back at the top of the memory industry with its new HBM4 technology.
Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex index jumped 1.6% to an all-time high on its last trading day before Lunar New Year holiday. Onshore Chinese stocks slipped as the latest set of price data showed an uneven economic recovery. In corporate news, China’s top chipmaker
SMIC warned that breakaway spending on AI chips is bringing forward years of future demand, raising the risk that some data centers could sit idle. Vietnam +2.4%, Indonesia +2%, ASX 200 +1.7%, Taiwan +1.6%, Kospi +1%, Singapore +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.3%,
Thailand +0.1%. Sensex -0.05%, CSI 300 -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries ticked higher, with investors eyeing the possibility that softer labor figures could accelerate calls for deeper interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
this year. Treasury yields are slightly lower on the day ahead of the rescheduled January employment report. Overnight trading bands were narrow amid similarly muted price action European bonds.  10-year yield is at its lowest level in about a month around
4.125%, after money markets raised the odds of an April rate cut. The curve is flatter with 2s10s -2bps. US session also includes new-issue 10-year note auction for $42 billion, following good demand for 3-year notes Tuesday. Fed President Beth Hammack said
interest rates could be on an extended hold while officials evaluate incoming economic data. The Fed’s Lorie Logan also spoke in favor of continuing to hold rates unchanged unless the labor market showed new “material” weakness.
10-year yield jumps ~7bps after the employment figures.

METALS: 

Gold prices gained, while investors awaited key US jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Spot gold jumps near $5,120 an ounce before paring
gains as investors position for potential softer US data and rate-cut implications. Spot silver is up over 5% after falling more than 3% in the previous session. Nickel surged after people familiar said Indonesia ordered the world’s biggest mine to slash output.
Spot gold +0.8%, Silver +5.6%, Copper futures +1.7%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil gained as tensions in the Middle East outweighed concerns that there’s a supply glut building in the market. Brent rose above $70, gaining more than 2%, after
reports that the US was considering seizing tankers with Iranian crude and potentially sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the region. Traders are also watching for monthly reports from OPEC today and from the International Energy Agency on Thursday.
The IEA has been warning that there’ll be a major over surplus this year. There is oversupply of roughly 2 million barrels a day in the market as the OPEC+ producers group has added output, Bank of America’s Blanch said. Should geopolitics push Brent above
$70 a barrel, he expects the group will add even more. The Indian Coast Guard seized three tankers involved in oil smuggling in the waters off Mumbai, saying it had “busted an international oil-smuggling racket”.  WTI +2.3%, Brent +2.2%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB
+1.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar retreated for a fourth consecutive day, under renewed pressure across the board as traders await delayed but pivotal jobs data,
following weak retail sales that reinforced dovish Fed expectations. The yen strengthens while the Aussie dollar hits a fresh three-year high following hawkish remarks by RBA’s Hauser. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that inflation is still too high
and affirmed the bank’s resolve to do whatever is necessary to return it to target. Norway’s crown also outperformed a day after stronger-than-expected core inflation data caused markets to price out any further monetary easing there. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD
+0.3%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.45%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin -2.4%, Spot Ethereum -3%. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since last Friday’s selloff, despite support from its largest holders, so-called whale wallets,
in their biggest buying spree since November. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• ArcelorMittal (MT NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $73.20
• Beta Technologies (BETA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
• Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $260
• Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bradesco BBI
• European Wax (EWCZ) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $5.80
• Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Buy at Equita; PT $458.84
• Kingsoft Cloud (KC) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $15.60
• Monro (MNRO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $40
• Porch Group (PRCH) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $10.50
• Radian (RDN) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $42
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT $595
• Trade Desk (TTD) Raised to Neutral at Edgewater
• Tyler Tech (TYL) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $460
• Downgrades
• AtriCure (ATRC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $36
• Borr Drilling (BORR) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT $5.60
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Cut to Sell at Melius; PT $31
• Foran Mining (FOM CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$6.60
• Installed Building (IBP) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Mattel (MAT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $16
• Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $14
• Millicom (TIGO) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank; PT $43
• Noble Corp. (NE) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT $38
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $23
• NuScale Power (SMR) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $140
• Rapid7 (RPD) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $10
• Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI CN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Saia (SAIA) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $425
• Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Seadrill (SDRL) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT $43
• Trex (TREX) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Vizsla Silver (VZLA CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$6.50
• Webster Financial (WBS) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• XPO Inc. (XPO) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $210
• Initiations
• BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $23
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT C$40.63
• Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $20
• Jefferson Capital (JCAP) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $28
• McGrath Rent (MGRC) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $140
• Olema Pharma (OLMA) Rated New Buy at Stifel
• Prenetics Global (PRE) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $36
• Samsara (IOT) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $36
• Velo3D (VELO) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $25

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke