Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Unemployment Report; 1:00ET 10-year auction; 2:00ET Federal Budget Balance; 7:00ET
Fed’s Logan speaks; 7:05ET Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

• US House Votes to End Some Tariffs on Canadian imports
• US SHELVES SOME TECH SECURITY MEASURES AHEAD OF CHINA MEETING:RTRS
• Booming Asian Markets Widen Their Lead Over US and Europe
• US stocks are falling ever-further behind the rest of the world; S&P 500 ranks 69^th in global indices
• Two US Navy ships collided in waters near South America: WSJ
• Iran says it won’t negotiate over its missile capabilities
• Nuveen to Buy UK Asset Manager Schroders in £10 Billion Deal
• Portugal’s deadly floods forced thousands to flee, collapsing key infrastructure
  

Global stocks traded around record highs, with MSCI’s All-World index up for a fifth straight day, as investors digest earnings from a slew of major companies in
Europe. While developed market stocks are experiencing some risk-off pressure and sector/style rotation, emerging markets keep demonstrating persistent relative outperformance. The EM narrative remains solid, reinforcing the view that the broader global economy
is holding up reasonably well. Asian markets are outperforming their US and European counterparts, attracting fresh global capital inflows amid heightened volatility that’s shaking everything from tech stocks to industrial metals. The Trump administration
has temporarily shelved several planned or proposed technology-related national security restrictions targeting China. This move appears tied to a recent trade detente between the US and China and is positioned ahead of a scheduled high-level meeting between
the two countries’ presidents in April. Iran’s missile capabilities are non-negotiable and constitute a clear red line, a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader stated Wednesday, as Tehran and Washington eye a new round of talks to avert conflict.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures edge higher in cautious trading, while Cisco shares are lower in premarket trading after saying that mounting memory chip prices are hurting its margins. Elsewhere in
the AI space, Anthropic is said to be nearing the completion of a deal to raise more than $20 billion in a funding round with a plethora of big investors. And Softbank announced a near-$20 billion investment gain on OpenAI. The US and Japan are closing in
on the first three projects to be funded by Tokyo’s $550 billion investment vehicle, as part of their bilateral trade deal. Trump’s tariff policies suffered their strongest political blow yet with the Republican-led US House passing legislation aimed at ending
the president’s levies on Canadian imports. Trump is almost certain to veto any bill calling for a repeal of his tariff agenda. Attention now turns to Friday’s inflation report for clues on future policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Coal stocks are up after the Trump administration ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal plants and announced funding for upgrades
to coal facilities. Baxter International (BAX) falls 14% after the medtech company posted fourth quarter results. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) drops 7% after the company gave a weaker-than-expected forecast. Cognex (CGNX) is up 23% after the electronics components
company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat. Equinix (EQIX) rises 9% after the data center operator’s 2026 revenue guidance beat the average analyst estimate. Fastly (FSLY) soars 40% after the cloud-platform provider posted fourth-quarter results
that beat expectations and management gave a robust full-year forecast. ICON (ICLR) sinks 33% after the company said the audit committee launched an internal investigation into its accounting practices. Paycom Software (PAYC) falls 9% after the company’s outlook
was seen as disappointing. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) rises 13% after the biotech said it plans to advance its oral obesity drug to Phase 3 in the third quarter of this year. Zoetis (ZTS) climbs 4% after the animal health company gave a forecast for adjusted
earnings per share for 2026 that topped Wall Street’s expectations.

Jitters over software have given the ‘old economy’ stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average a new lease of life. The Dow Jones Transportation
Average has outpaced the S&P 500 in the past six weeks, as investors pivot from megacap tech to rails, truckers, and airlines.

Semis versus Software ETF Performance

European gauges climbed to a record high on one of the busiest days for company earnings. Luxury and financial services outperform while utilities lag. Siemens AG rallied
more than 6% after boosting its earnings outlook and eyewear maker EssilorLuxottica SA jumped as much as 10%, before paring some gains, after reporting a boom in demand for AI-powered glasses. Schroders Plc surged 30% on news Nuveen is buying the asset manager
in a £9.9 billion deal, creating one of the world’s largest active asset managers with nearly $2.5 trillion of assets. Hermès rallied 3% as sales grew on robust demand for its coveted Birkin bags. Autostore shares surge over 17% after the Norwegian warehouse
automation firm delivered a strong revenue beat. Magnum Ice Cream Co. shares fell as much as 16% in Amsterdam after the former Unilever Plc unit disappointed investors with a large drop in operating profit last year. Adyen shares slump as much as 20% after
the payments firm gave a revenue growth target that missed estimates. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +1.3%, CAC +1%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Luxury +1.6%, Financial Services +1.4%. Utilities -2%, Personal Goods -0.4%.

Shares in Asia gained for a fifth straight day, on continued investor optimism over benefits for the region’s technology hardware suppliers from the artificial intelligence
boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7% and is up about 13% so far in 2026. South Korea’s Kospi jumped over 3% to extend its lead as the world’s best-performing market this year, driven by gains in memory makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The region’s
stocks are outperforming global peers this year on extended enthusiasm for AI infrastructure firms, even as concerns mount over elevated capex levels and the risk of older business models becoming obsolete in other markets. Japanese stocks extended gains on
hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win may boost spending. Japanese chipmaker Kioxia surged after its guidance beat estimates. Hong Kong shares fell, bucking the broader regional gain, while mainland China equities traded flat ahead
of Lunar New Year holidays. There’s no trading in Taiwan through next week. Kospi +3.1%, Thailand +2.1%, Vietnam +1%, Topix +0.7%, Singapore +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.3%, CSI 300 +.01%. Nikkei ~flat. Indonesia -0.3%, Philippines -0.4%, Sensex -0.7%, Hang Seng Index
-0.9%.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix make up ~47% of EWY holdings.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains ahead of weekly jobless claims data and 30-year new-issue auction. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp curve with curve spreads little changed;
new 10-year yield near 4.16% is 1.5bp lower on the day. $25 billion 30-year new-issue auction at 1pm New York time concludes this week’s Treasury supply; Wednesday’s 10-year tailed by 1.4bp. WI 30-year yield near 4.795% is ~3bp richer than January’s, which
stopped through by 0.8bp. The Fed’s Jeff Schmid said rates should remain at a “somewhat restrictive” level, while Stephen Miran said January’s strong jobs report doesn’t warrant delaying further cuts.

METALS: 

Gold and silver slipped as investors assessed the impact of market closures in China for the Lunar New Year holiday. China has been a key driver of silver and other
metals in recent weeks, and the absence of those traders for more than a week will be an important test for the market.  Investors are waiting for the inflation data on Friday for more clues on the Fed’s monetary policy path. Both the Shanghai Gold Exchange
and the Shanghai Futures Exchange will close for the holiday period from end of Friday until Feb. 24. Gold may climb to as much as $6,300 an ounce by the end of the year, lifted by its role as a preferred diversifier against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation
risks, JPMorgan Private Bank said. Traders are awaiting US economic data, including core consumer price figures due Friday. Spot gold -0.3%, Silver -2.1%, Copper futures ~flat. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fluctuated in a tight range, with market attention locked on US-Iran geopolitical risks that have largely drowned out signs of swelling inventories and
potential oversupply. Brent is trading near $69 a barrel, after gaining almost 1% on Wednesday. While President Trump signaled his goal was to reach a nuclear deal with Tehran, traders remain concerned about the potential for military strikes and risks to
supply. Global oil stockpiles accumulated at the strongest pace since the 2020 pandemic as supplies soared and demand growth slowed, according to the IEA. The IEA trimmed forecasts for growth in oil demand this year, projecting a glut of just over 3.7 million
barrels a day for 2026. WTI -0.15%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas +3.6%, RBOB -0.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus major peers while Sterling shrugged off data showing that the UK economy grew less than forecast in the fourth quarter
as business investment shrank and services stagnated. The yen outperformed its G-10 peers earlier as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory eased fiscal concerns. The euro fluctuated as ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said
policymakers’ next move could be to raise or lower borrowing costs. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.4%, Spot Ethereum +0.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• BorgWarner (BWA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $82
• Fastly (FSLY) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Ferrari (RACE) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $379.62
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $14
• LuxExperience (LUXE) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $14
• MercadoLibre (MELI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $2,800
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $43.90
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $18
• Pegasystems (PEGA) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $48
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Raised to Buy at TD Cowen
• Youdao (DAO) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $12
• Zegna Group (ZGN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11
• Downgrades
• Arcellx (ACLX) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $82
• Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $23
• BBB Foods (TBBB) Cut to Market Perform at Itau BBA; PT $42
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $35.10
• ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $38.50
• D2L (DTOL CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$12.75
• Generac (GNRC) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $202
• Humana (HUM) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $189
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $74
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $70
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $22
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• NowVertical Group (NOW CN) Cut to Sell at Stifel Canada
• Pfizer (PFE) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $27
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Rollins (ROL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $56
• Sylogist (SYZ CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$4.75
• TECSYS (TCS CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$28.50
• Tribe Property Technologies (TRBE CN) Cut to Sell at Stifel Canada
• Valvoline (VVV) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $35
• Vertex (VERX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $16
• Initiations
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Fennec Pharmaceuticals (FRX CN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT C$21.69
• Honda (7267 JP) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $25
• Immunome (IMNM) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $40
• Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ADRs Rated New Buy at SWS Research; PT $49
• Mirion Technologies (MIR) Rated New Buy at Melius
• Nissan (7201 JP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $8
• Sezzle (SEZL) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $85
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $486
• Suzuki (7269 JP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $70
• Toyota (7203 JP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $290
• USA Today (TDAY) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $10

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke