Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Empire Manufacturing; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index; 12:45ET Fed’s Barr speaks;
2:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Most Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year
• US and Iran begin nuclear talks in Geneva as threat of war looms
• IRAN READY TO STAY IN GENEVA FOR DAYS, WEEKS TO REACH DEAL:ISNA
• the leader of the Islamic regime in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, threatens to sink U.S. aircraft carriers
• Trump said he’s been speaking with Xi Jinping about weapons sales to Taiwan
• Jesse Jackson Dies at 84

Global stocks were steady in holiday-thinned trading, but oil pushed higher with US and Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva on deck. Iran and the US are meeting for
a second round of nuclear talks in Switzerland, with Iranian officials expressing willingness to discuss their nuclear-enrichment activities. Trump warned that he would launch strikes against the Islamic Republic if it refused to accept a deal limiting Tehran’s
nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Iran’s Supreme Leader cautioned that any US efforts to overthrow his government would ultimately fail. Israel is pushing for the negotiations to include limits on the range of Tehran’s ballistic missiles, but
Iran has so far dismissed that as a red line. A record number of investors expect European growth to accelerate in the coming months, with German fiscal stimulus the driving force, according to a Bank of America European fund manager survey.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower after the holiday weekend. President Trump said he’s discussing future weapons sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and investors also looked
toward the next round of talks between the US and Iran. In corporate news, Warner Bros confirmed it’s agreed to temporarily reopen sale negotiations with Paramount, setting the stage for a potential second bidding war with Netflix. The WSJ reports that activist
Elliott is said to have built a large stake in Norwegian Cruise Line. New short positions dominated US large-cap futures flows last week, according to Citigroup strategists, particularly in the S&P 500 where almost $10 billion of net new shorts were added.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.9%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.2%

In pre-market trading, AeroVironment (AVAV) gains 3% as JPMorgan initiates coverage with a recommendation of overweight following a selloff in the drone maker’s stock.
Fiserv (FISV) rises 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the fintech company. ImmunityBio shares (IBRX) gains 6% after the drugmaker said the Saudi Food and Drug Authority encouraged the company
to submit a regulatory package for its bladder cancer therapy to expand access in Saudi Arabia. Masimo (MASI) jumps 34% after the Financial Times said Danaher is closing in on a nearly $10 billion deal to buy medical technology company. Norwegian Cruise (NCLH)
rises over 7% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a more than 10% stake in the cruise-ship company. Warner Bros Discovery Inc. (WBD) rises over 2% after agreeing to temporarily reopen sale negotiations
with rival Hollywood studio Paramount Skydance Corp., setting the stage for a potential second bidding war with Netflix Inc. Shares of Paramount Skydance (PSKY) gain 3%. Zim Integrated Shipping (ZIM) surges 35% after Hapag-Lloyd AG said it’s buying the Israeli
shipping company.

European gauges are mixed to lower, with defensive sectors such as real estate and utilities outperforming amid lingering worries around artificial
intelligence. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey showed that a growing number of investors think the structural underperformance of Europe’s equity markets is over. Investors have been shifting to European markets to find safety from the turmoil
stemming from American tech shares and worries that AI will upend the software industry. Avolta shares rise as much as 5.9% after UBS upgraded the travel retailer to buy. SSP shares surge as much as 11% after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from neutral.
BFF Bank shares fall as much as 12% to a record low after confirming a report that Italian prosecutors opened an investigation into the specialist lender. Antofagasta falls over 5% after the copper miner’s earnings and dividend payout underwhelmed. Stoxx 600
-0.1%, DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Basic Resources -2.7%, Defense -1.7%, Technology -0.9%. Real Estate +1.4%, Healthcare +1%, Utilities +1%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index little changed, while most of the region’s markets were closed for Lunar New Year. Japan’s Topix fell as
investors extended profit-taking after last week’s post-election gains. Weak economic data for Japan appeared to be clouding sentiment in Tokyo, and a 5.1% decline for tech giant SoftBank Group also pulled shares lower. Japan’s economy expanded at an anemic
0.2% annual pace in the last quarter, the government reported, with growth for all of 2025 at just 1.1%. The figures were far below the 1.6% gain forecast as government spending dragged on activity. Recent polls indicate that Prime Minister Takaichi’s approval
ratings are gradually declining, as public enthusiasm wanes for her proposals to ramp up government spending and implement tax reductions as drivers of economic recovery. Topix -0.7%, Sensex +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.25%, Thailand +1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small curve-flattening gains as US trading resumes after Monday’s holiday, with yields having reached new lows for this year, at 4.016% for the 10-year
(just above the 200 week moving average). Yields remain lower by 2.5bp at the long end following the market’s biggest weekly gain since August, driven by softer-than-estimated January CPI data released Friday and volatility in risk assets including US stocks.
Treasury coupon auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year new issue Wednesday and $9 billion 30-year TIPS new issue Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold dropped to its lowest level in over a week, weighed down by a firmer dollar as markets monitored developments in geopolitics and signals from the Federal Reserve’s
upcoming monetary policy decisions. Silver plunged as much as 5% before paring some losses.  India’s import figures revealed near-record levels of gold and silver through January, with the country bringing in over $12 billion worth of gold—the third-largest
monthly amount ever recorded—while silver imports jumped above $2 billion. Spot gold -1.6%, Silver -2.8%, Copper futures -2.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are mixed as Iran played up its military exercises near the critical Strait of Hormuz, at the same time as indirect nuclear talks with the US resumed.
Iranian media reported that parts of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for several hours today due to military drills. The US is deploying a second aircraft carrier to the region amid warnings of a possible strike on Iran if talks fail to produce a compromise.
Meanwhile, negotiations are also scheduled between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva over the next two days. Russia reported a new drone attack that set ablaze oil refinery infrastructure on its Black Sea, while Ukraine said Russian forces struck the port city
of Odesa. WTI +0.7%, Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas -4.1%, RBOB +0.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar gained as liquidity thinned for the Lunar New Year holiday, while traders are watching out for any impact from renewed geopolitical
tensions in the Middle East. Sterling fell after UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to a five-year high of 5.2%, while wage growth eased. Traders moved to fully price two BOE rate cuts this year. Yen gains as Japan’s government bonds extended a week-long rally
after a smooth auction of five-year notes buttressed positive sentiment. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.7%, USDNOK +0.5%.

Spot Bitcoin -1.3%, Spot Ethereum -0.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Accenture (ACN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $275
• Albemarle (ALB) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $190
• Arista Networks (ANET) Raised to Buy at GF Securities; PT $170
• BASF (BAS GR) ADRs Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT $14.20
• Chevron (CVX) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $205
• Chorus Aviation (CHR CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• Cognex (CGNX) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $68
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $165
• Eversource (ES) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $78
• Genmab (GMAB DC) ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $41.50
• Jack Henry (JKHY) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $196
• Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $31
• Melco Resorts (MLCO) ADRs Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $9.50
• Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $275
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $150
• Southwest Air (LUV) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $73
• Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Raised to Hold at Benchmark
• TransUnion (TRU) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $83
• Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $69
• Upstart (UPST) Raised to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $30
• Veeva (VEEV) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $205
• Workday (WDAY) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $180
• Downgrades
• Advantage Energy Ltd (AAV CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Peters & Co
• Air Canada (AC CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $25
• Conoco (COP) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $112
• Dollar General (DG) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $111
• Eagle Materials (EXP) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $215
• Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$65.47
• Enbridge (ENB CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$72
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$76
• Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $100
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$40
• Optimum Communications I (OPTU) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $1.90
• Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$62
• TC Energy (TRP CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$88
• Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$85
• Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Initiations
• AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $320
• Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL) ADRs Reinstated Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $9
• Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $17
• Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $18
• Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $17
• Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $15
• Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $17
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $13
• Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $18
• Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $18
• Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $11.50
• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $26
• Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $33
• Dexterra Group (DXT CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$18
• Disney (DIS) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $127.17
• EquipmentShare.com (EQPT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $43
• Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $35
• Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $63
• Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $51
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $41
• FactSet (FDS) Reinstated Underperform at BofA; PT $195
• Galecto (GLTO) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $45
• Genmab (GMAB DC) ADRs Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $34
• Grail (GRAL) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $113
• Guardant Health (GH) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $120
• Immutep (IMM AU) ADRs Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $6
• Innoviva (INVA) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $35
• IsoEnergy (ISO CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$18
• Karooooo (KARO) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $62
• Sintana Energy (SEI CN) Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT C$1.15
• Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $59

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke