Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:20ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 8:30ET Fed’s Bowman speaks, Imports, Exports, Advance Goods
Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims; 9:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 10:00ET Leading Index, Pending Home Sales; 10:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:00ET 30-year TIPS Auction

Highlights and News:  

• US CONSIDERING BILATERAL TRADE DEALS WITH MEXICO, CANADA: NYT
• Iran’s Diplomatic Window Is Closing, UN Atomic Watchdog Says
• Russia and Iran conducting joint naval exercises in the Sea of Oman
• Hitachi and Toshiba show interest in Japan’s invest-in-US initiative
• Ex-Prince Andrew Arrested on Misconduct Claim as Details of Relationship with Epstein Emerge
• Bill Gates Pulls Out of India AI Summit Keynote Just Hours Before Speaking
  
• Walmart issued a full-year earnings forecast that missed

Global stocks eased with attention centered on company earnings, though persistent tensions between the United States and Iran kept markets on edge. According to
the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the escalating US military presence in the Middle East is putting Iran’s opportunity for a diplomatic resolution on its nuclear program in jeopardy of shutting down. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Netanyahu in
Israel next week as the US accelerates military preparations and weighs potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has discussed a potential return of inspectors to nuclear sites, but that
it hinges on a broader nuclear agreement. Emerging-market hedge funds in January posted their strongest monthly performance in over three years, with alpha generation accounting for more than half of their return, according to strategists at JPMorgan.  

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slip amid US/Iran headlines and on renewed caution over the outlook for artificial intelligence. Futures reversed earlier gains after the head of the UN nuclear watchdog
warned that the intensified American military buildup in the region means time is running out for Iran to finalize a diplomatic settlement on its atomic activities. The market is also digesting a surprisingly mixed narrative among Fed committee members at
their January meeting. Attention will turn to a slate of Fed speakers today. Morgan Stanley’s analysis of 13F filings shows mega-cap tech names are now the most under-owned relative to their S&P 500 weighting in 17 years. Separately, Goldman Sachs notes that
57% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks year-to-date—the strongest showing since 2007—as rotation across equities continues to spread returns more broadly. Bank of America clients dumped US equities last week, with single-stock outflows
reaching $8.3 billion — the third highest since records began in 2008.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, Avis Budget (CAR) falls 16% after the car-rental company forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026 that missed the average analyst
estimate. Carvana (CVNA) plunges 11% after rising costs at the online used-car retailer hit margins. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) falls 5% after the restaurant chain’s comp sales during the fourth quarter came in below estimates. Chewy (CHWY) rises 3% after Raymond
James upgraded to outperform. Deere (DE) is up 6% after the company boosted its annual profit outlook. DoorDash (DASH) rises 9% after the food-delivery company issued a first-quarter orders growth forecast that topped estimates. EPAM Systems (EPAM) slumps
17% after the IT services company forecast its FY revenue growth rate below Wall Street expectations. Herbalife (HLF) rises 12% after the nutrition company said football star Cristiano Ronaldo had invested $7.5 million. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rises 5% after
the telehealth company agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, a digital health company. Occidental (OXY) climbs 5% after the exploration and production company gave 2026 capital expenditure guidance that was lower than expectations. Remitly (RELY) climbs 22% after
the international money transfer service provider reported results and issued a forecast that topped analyst expectations. Walmart (WMT) slips 3% after issuing a forecast for full-year earnings that missed higher expectations, flagging the unpredictable state
of trade and labor market conditions. Wayfair (W) falls 6% after the ecommerce firm reported fourth quarter results.

US Premarket Movers of Note:

• RELY US (+20%): Remitly Rises as 2026 Adj. Ebitda Forecast Beats Estimates
• KLAR US (+6.0%)
• ETSY US (+14%): Etsy Jumps, Selling Depop Will Simplify Business: Street Wrap
• HLF US (+14%): Herbalife Rallies After Touting Cristiano Ronaldo Stake
• FIG US (+14%): Figma Gains on Strong Growth Outlook That Eases AI Fears
• DASH US (+12%): DoorDash Gains After Projecting Order Growth Topping Estimates
• EBAY US (+7.7%): EBay Buys Fashion Marketplace Depop, Reports Robust Results
• OXY US (+3.6%): Occidental 4Q Net Sales Beat Estimates: Snapshot
• CHWY US (+3.3%): Chewy Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $28
• AVAV US (+2.5%): AeroVironment, Kratos Initiated With Neutral Ratings at UBS
• CPNG US (+2.4%): Korea FTC Sees Coupang Data Breach Insufficient for Halt: Daily
• TAP US (6.3%): Molson Coors Shares Slide as 4Q Net Sales Miss Estimate
• CAR US (-12%): Avis Budget Tumbles as FY Adj. Ebitda Outlook Falls Short
• CVNA US (-17%): Carvana Falls as Higher Costs Trim Used Car Seller’s Profit

European gauges drop as investors sifted through a mixed batch of earnings. Food and beverage stocks and real estate outperform after solid results
from Nestle and Covivio, while miners lag. Shares in plane maker Airbus and miner Rio Tinto dropped after their earnings reports underwhelmed the market. Air France-KLM shares rise as much as 16% after the airline operator reported better-than-expected earnings.
FDJ United rallied as much as 8.8% as the lottery provider’s full-year results meet analysts’ expectations. Tenaris shares rise as much as 6.5% in Milan after the steel pipe manufacturer reported robust results. Arcadis plunged as much as 21% after the provider
of consulting and engineering services reported earnings that were well below expectations. Aegon shares dropped as much as 6.8% after the Dutch insurance group reported a mixed set of earnings. Stoxx 600 -0.6%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -0.8%, FTSE 100 -0.6%.  Utilities
-2.8%, Basic Resources -2.4%, Defense -1.9%. Food & Bev +0.9%, Energy +0.5%, Media +0.4%, Real Estate +0.4%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, led by South Korea, as a rebound in tech shares gained traction. A potential record-breaking financing deal by OpenAI boosted investor
confidence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6%, extending gains to a second day. Kospi index soared more than 3% as Samsung hits a fresh record on strong AI chip price report. Samsung is negotiating a price for its latest artificial intelligence memory
chip that’s up to 30% higher than the previous generation.  Indian benchmarks suffered their biggest daily losses in more than two weeks as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed crude prices higher, dampening sentiment in the world’s third-largest oil importer.
Japanese nuclear reactor-related stocks rose after NHK reported that the Japanese government is considering construction of next-generation nuclear reactors for the second tranche of its $550b investment commitment to the US. Trading in Hong Kong will resume
on Friday, while markets in mainland China will remain shut until next week. Kospi +3.1%, Thailand +1.9%, Singapore +1.3%, Topix +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Philippines +0.2%. Indonesia -0.4%, Sensex -1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries dipped as investors awaited fresh US data to reassess the Fed’s rate path. 10-year yield adds a basis point to around 4.10% with the curve relatively flat.
Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims, 30-year TIPS auction and several Fed speakers.

METALS: 

Gold steadied as traders are watching developments in the Middle East, where nuclear talks between the US and Iran have so far been inconclusive. Axios said any US
military operation would likely be a weeks-long campaign. A key focus for bullion’s next decisive move will be the path of US interest rates, with Fed officials appearing wary of cutting rates according to the minutes of the US central bank’s policy meeting.
Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +1.0%, Copper futures -2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil extended gains, with Brent crude pushing past $71 per barrel, as traders stayed nervous about the possibility of US military action against Iran. Axios reported
a major US military operation in the Middle East could begin soon, with Israel pressing for an operation that targets regime change in Iran. Top national security officials have told President Trump the military is ready for potential strikes on Iran as soon
as Saturday, though sources told CBS News that any action is more likely to occur after this weekend. US crude inventories fell 609,000 barrels last week, the API reported. Supplies at Cushing fell by 1.4 million barrels. That would be the biggest drop in
more than seven months if confirmed by the EIA. WTI +1.7%, Brent +1.5%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +1.0%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges higher, holding on to its gains after rallying in the wake of better-than-expected US economic data and the Fed minutes. Aussie$
reverses earlier gains following a solid jobs report. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as March or April, the chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association said. The yen reversed earlier gain versus the dollar to trade slightly lower. US$
Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.25%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD ~flat, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK +0.6%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin ~flat, Spot Ethereum -0.3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Chewy (CHWY) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $28
• CIBC (CM CN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT C$137
• Cineverse Corp (CNVS) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $12
• Dentsply (XRAY) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $17
• Garmin (GRMN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $252
• LeonaBio Inc (LONA) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Neptune Insurance (NP) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $25
• Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• QuantumScape (QS) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $8.30
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs
• Symbotic (SYM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $70
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $240
• ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $31.80
• Downgrades
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $65
• Fiverr (FVRR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $15
• Cut to Neutral at Citi
• Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $14
• Cut to Hold at Needham
• HF Sinclair (DINO) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $53
• Huntsman (HUN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $14
• Mister Car Wash (MCW) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $7
• Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Polestar (PSNY) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Cantor
• RF Industries (RFIL) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $10.25
• SimilarWeb (SMWB) Cut to Hold at Needham
• SK Telecom (017670 KS) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Initiations
• Axogen (AXGN) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
• BioHarvest Sciences Inc (BHST) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $165
• F3 Uranium Corp (FUU CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• Fossil (FOSL) Rated New Outperform at Northland; PT $7
• Grail (GRAL) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $114
• Happy Belly Food Group (HBFG CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$2.50
• Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $62
• Lear (LEA) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $170
• Osisko Metals (OM CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$1.75
• Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Rhythm Pharma (RYTM) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $145
• Surrozen (SRZN) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $40
• Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $100

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke