Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity; 9:00ET Fed’s Bostic speaks, Fed’s Collings
speaks, FHFA House Price Index; 9:15ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 9:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks, Fed’s Cook speaks; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Business Conditions, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Wholesale Inventories, Trade Sales; 10:30ET Dallas Fed
Services Activity; 1:00ET 2-Year Auction; 3:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 9:00ET Trump’s State of the Union address

Highlights and News:  

• Trump’s 10% global levy takes effect today as US rebuilds tariff wall
• Anthropic set to give a demo of its AI enterprise agents at 9:30ET
• EU Warns That Trump’s New Tariff Policy Breaks Trade Deal
• AMD SHARES RISE 15% ON BLOCKBUSTER DEAL WITH META
• Today marks four years of war in Ukraine
• China Targets Japan Defense Companies in Sweeping Export Ban
• NOVO TO CUT OZEMPIC, WEGOVY’S US LIST PRICES BY UP TO 50%: WSJ

Global stocks fell for a second day, before paring losses in mixed but predominantly cautious trading. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies, combined
with geopolitical tensions and fresh concerns about AI-driven economic disruption, continues to pressure market sentiment. US imposed a new tariff from today of 10% on all goods not covered by exemptions, the US Customs and Border Protection said, the rate
first announced by President Trump on Friday rather than the 15% he promised over the weekend. The Financial Times quoted a White House official as saying the increase up to 15% would come later. Many countries wish to stick to their deals, but China urged
Washington to abandon its “unilateral tariffs”, indicating it was willing to hold another round of trade talks. China blacklisted 20 Japanese entities and tightened scrutiny on a raft of other firms, signaling Beijing’s pressure campaign on Tokyo isn’t slowing.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are edging higher after Monday’s drop. More volatility is likely, with
Anthropic set to give a demo of its AI enterprise agents at 9:30ET. Heavy selling in potential “AI losers” (software, payments, certain tech) continues to pressure markets, with upcoming earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce in focus.
Meta Platforms has struck a massive deal with Advanced Micro Devices to acquire AI computing capacity equivalent to 6 gigawatts, in an agreement valued at over $100 billion that may see Meta end up holding as much as 10% of AMD’s shares. Amid the AI
scare, traders are rewarding stocks with what Goldman Sachs strategists dubbed “the HALO effect: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence.” Jamie Dimon warned he’s seeing parallels to the pre-2008 crisis era, when a rush to make loans ended disastrously. Alap Shah,
co-author of a Citrini report that triggered yesterday’s selloff, suggested governments consider taxing AI to cushion the impact of job losses.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Advanced Micro Devices
(AMD) rises 11% as Meta Platforms Inc. will deploy 6 gigawatts’ worth of data center gear based on processors from the company. Blue Owl (OWL) slips 2% following a downgrade to hold at Deutsche Bank. BWX Technologies (BWXT) rises 8% after the nuclear
power company reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the fourth-quarter that beat. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) falls 5% after the telehealth company’s guidance projected subdued profits for 1Q and the full year, citing a step-up in investments.
Home Depot Inc. (HD) rises 2% after reporting a key sales metric that beat expectations. Kratos (KTOS) falls 3% after the defense contractor forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed. MediaAlpha (MAX) rises 11% after the insurance technology platform
reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts downplayed the risk of AI-related disruption. Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) rises 29% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for lymphatic malformations
met its main goal. Paymentus Holdings (PAY) falls 9% after the cloud-based bill payment company’s revenue guidance for 2026 came in below the average analyst estimate. Planet Fitness (PLNT) falls 5% after the operator of fitness clubs gave an outlook. Super
Group (SGHC) rises 16% as the gaming company’s full-year revenue forecast exceeded Wall Street’s estimates. Vir Biotechnology (VIR) jumps 57% after the drug developer gave updated data from an early-stage trial for its investigative therapy for prostate cancer.
Whirlpool (WHR) falls 8% after the maker of kitchen appliances announced concurrent separate underwritten public offerings of shares of common stock and depositary shares. Ziff Davis (ZD) falls 10% after the digital media and Internet company reported fourth-quarter
results that missed expectations.

European gauges lift off early lows to trade roughly flat. Utilities, chemicals and autos outperform. Banks are the worst performing sector in
Europe, tracking declines for US peers, as fears about AI disruption and private credit lending continue to rattle the market. Convatec rises as much as 11% following full-year results that showed stronger-than-expected second-half revenue performance. Edenred
shares gain as much as 9.3% after the payment solutions firm delivered better earnings and cashflow than anticipated. Endesa shares jumped over 6% after the Spanish utility firm reported net income for the full year that beat. MTU Aero shares fall as much
as 6.4% after the German engine manufacturer’s cash flow missed expectations. Novo Nordisk shares fell as much as 4.4% after getting a host of downgrades. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.05%, FTSE 100 -0.05%. Utilities +1.8%, Chemicals +1.5%, Autos +1.5%.
Banks -2.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index +0.1%, reversing an early decline, as Chinese equities help after returning from Lunar New Year break. 
Chipmaking giants TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were the biggest boosts. Kospi flipped an early loss to a 2% gain and Taiex soars nearly 3% to a new high, leading gains among major benchmarks in Asia. Shares of Chinese defense related companies gained
after a dispute between China and Japan escalates. Hong Kong stocks reversed their gains as bearish sentiment prevailed during trading amid artificial intelligence-related jitters. Shares of digital payment-related firms fell in Asia after a Citrini Research
report warned of the risks AI could pose to credit card companies and other sectors. Taiwan Taiex +2.75%, Kospi +2.1%, CSI 300 +1%, Philippines +0.9%, Nikkei 225 +0.9%, Thailand +0.7%, Vietnam +0.4%, . ASX 200 -0.05%, Singapore -0.4%, Sensex -1.3%, Indonesia
-1.4%, Hang Seng Index -1.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the curve flatter as 5s30s spread partly unwinds Monday’s sharp steepening move. US session includes packed economic data and Fed
speaker slates as well as a 2-year note auction. 10-year yield near 4.035% is less than 1bp higher on the day, holding just above the key 200 week moving average.  5s30s -2.5bps; 2s10s -0.5bp.

METALS: 

Gold fell more than 1% after hitting a three-week high hit earlier in the session, as a stronger dollar and profit taking weighed while investors awaited further
clarity on President Trump’s tariff plans. Gold had surged more than 7% across the prior four sessions, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets following a Supreme Court ruling that derailed President Trump’s tariff plans and amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Spot gold -1.4%, Silver is flat, Copper futures +2.3%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices nudged up near their highest levels since July, as traders assessed the prospects of a potential Iranian nuclear agreement. Brent edges higher above $71.50,
having hit a seven-month high intraday on Monday. In a social media post, Trump said no deal would be “very bad” for Iran and pushed back on reports that the Pentagon was worried an extended military campaign could prove difficult. The UK government announced
new sanctions on Russia’s so-called shadow oil fleet as it ramped up efforts to squeeze energy revenues funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Russia’s energy revenue dropped over the last 12 months, even as the country’s oil exports increased in volume, according
to data released today, the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Diamondback Energy’s CEO said fears of a global oil glut that were expected to crush crude prices are fading amid resilient demand. WTI +0.8%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas -1.2%, RBOB
+0.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen slides after local media reported that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi voiced apprehension over more rate hikes in a meeting with Bank
of Japan Governor Ueda last week. The development injects fresh uncertainty into a complicated policy backdrop for the BOJ. The dollar edges higher as traders will turn their focus on President Trump’s State of the Union address later tonight amid uncertainty
over his tariff regime and tensions with Iran. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY +0.8%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK -0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin -2.3%, Spot Ethereum -2.2%. Bitcoin extended its decline, putting it on course for its steepest monthly drop since the industry suffered a slew of corporate
collapses in 2022. Bitcoin is also on track for a fifth straight monthly decline, its longest losing streak since 2018.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Booking (BKNG) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $450
• Equinox Gold (EQX CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$32
• Fox Corp (FOXA) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $64
• Freshpet (FRPT) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $90
• Genuine Parts (GPC) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $145
• KeyCorp (KEY) Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $19
• PPL (PPL) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $40
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $185
• Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $150
• Vir Biotechnology (VIR) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $19
• Downgrades
• Afya (AFYA) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $17
• Arcellx (ACLX) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $115
• Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $115
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $115
• Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $115
• Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $10
• BXP (BXP) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $62
• Cable One (CABO) Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $80
• Cenovus (CVE CN) Cut to Sell at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$27
• Cheniere Energy (LNG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $236
• Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $27
• DT Midstream (DTM) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $137
• Enhabit (EHAB) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $13.80
• GATX (GATX) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $210
• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 30 cents
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $1
• Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $29
• Winpak (WPK CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$52
• Initiations
• Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Underperform at Wedbush; PT $110
• AlphaTON Capital Corp (ATON) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2
• Americas Gold & Silver Corp (USA CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$17
• Apollo Global (APO) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT $142
• Blackstone (BX) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT $179
• Bloom Energy (BE) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $162
• Cactus (WHD) Reinstated Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $73
• Cannara Biotech (LOVE CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$3.25
• Carlyle Group (CG) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $67
• Cronos Group (CRON CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$4.50
• Dakota Gold (DC) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $10
• Decibel Cannabis Co Inc (DB CN) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
• Eagle Materials (EXP) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $208
• Eco Atlantic (EOG CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$1.85
• Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX CN) Rated New Buy at Bloom Burton & Co
• Gentherm (THRM) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $41
• Grindr (GRND) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
• High Tide (HITI CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$6.50
• KKR & Co. (KKR) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $137
• Rubrik (RBRK) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $65
• Sionna Therapeutics (SION) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• TPG (TPG) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $59
• Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Venture Global (VG) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke