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Iran Uncertainty, Drone Stockpiles, and ES Levels Stacked Like Cordwood: Trade It, Don’t Marry It
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Our View
I am not going to make this lengthy. The war is heating up, and this week will see the FRYday February jobs report and the week one options expiration.
April crude oil (CLJ26) has risen four sessions in a row, and it’s up 10.11 points or 14.75% and made a new high at 75.70 last night, above its January 2025 high of 72.53. As the war drags on, I think it will continue higher.
Gold (GCG26), which initially rallied after the attack on Iran, rallied up to 5,611.10 on 3/2/26, fell to 52,223.80, and settled at 5,303.70, closing down 194 or -3.53% on the day. It seems to me that the uncertainty is somewhat overwhelming.
Our Lean
While some may disagree, it’s hard to predict what is going to happen next. After the ES made its low yesterday, I put this out in the chat:
IMPRO:Dboy: [10:36:31 AM]: crazy, but I think a rip is coming
And the ES took off. After it made its high, I posted this:
IMPRO:Dboy: [2:52:50 PM]: that is the high
IMPRO:Dboy: [2:56:49 PM]: see you at 6790
All of this is easier said than done…
Our lean: Dead cat bounces can be 30 points, 60 points, 100 points, or 150 points. If you are a bull, buying the falling knives has not been easy, and if you are a short seller, you have to be prepared to get out fast after a big drop.
That said, I don’t think the war is close to being over, and I also think Iran has large stockpiles of drones and more ballistic weapons that are going to continue to land in every friendly US Middle East partner’s country. How you approach this is anyone’s guess.
Claude AI ES Resistance Levels
6900.92
6899.67
6895.98
6895.03
6880.88
6875.12
Market Profile
6833.00
6821.30
6813.50
6809.83
6805.70
Current & Targets
6795.00
6794.00
6787.86
Support Levels
6774.38
6733.67
6718.75
6642.58
NOTE DATE CHANGE #####
Market Recap
I didn’t start the OP until 1:55 pm. It was just amazing, and I am not sure in a good way. After trading up to 6813 on Monday and selling all the way down to 6743.25 on Globex, the ES opened at 6772.751 , down 114.50, or -1.69%.
After the open, the ES traded 6766.50 and rallied to 6794.00 at 9:35. It then sold off down to 6718.75 before bouncing to 6747.75. The ES sold off again to a higher low at 6725.50, then rallied to 6789.00 at 11:26. It pulled back to 6769.00 at 11:30, pushed up to 6809.00 at 1:45, and then pulled back to 6986.50 at 12:10. The ES rallied back to the old high at 6808.00, sold off to 6783.75 at 12:35, rallied to a 6808.00 “triple top,” pulled back to 6791.75 at 12:55, and then rallied to a new high at 6912.25 at 1:03.
It pulled back to 6799.25 at 1:10 and rallied to 6842.75 at 1:50. The ES then sold off to 6820.00 at 2:10, bounced to a lower high at 6838.75, and sold off again to 6815.75. It rallied to 6847.75 at 2:45, sold off to 6830.00 at 2:55, and pushed up to a lower high at 6843.25 at 3:00. From there, it sold off to 6825.00 at 3:15, rallied to 6838.50 at 3:35, and pulled back to 6823.25 at 3:48. The ES traded 6827.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance came out flat, then sold off to 6815.50 and traded 6826.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off to 6809.50 at 4:30 and settled at 6824.75, down 63.50 points. The NQ settled at 24,755.75, down 296.50 points or -1.08%, and 403.75 points off its 24,532.00 low. The YM settled at 48,560, down 385 points or -0.79%, and 879 points off its 47,681 low. At its worst point during the session, the YM was down 1264 points from the previous day’s close. The RTY settled at 2551.80, down 45.80 points or -1.72%, 90.2 points off its low.
In the end, this is pure, unadulterated crazy town. There were 730K+ ES traded on Globex, and it was one headline after another. In terms of the ES and NQ, they opened down, sold off, and rallied hard, and there were constant intraday rotations like I have never seen before. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was big at 2.193 million contracts traded, the highest volume since 1/21/26, or the last 28 sessions.
While I like and respect his work, tic toc @TicTocTick did a post that said:
“Dow Jones, in its 130-year history, has dropped 1,000 points or more 14 times. Twelve out of those 14 times were under Donald Trump’s presidency.”
I had to #FactCheck that, and the post was wrong.
As of March 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has dropped 1,000 points or more in a single day a total of 20 times.
Most of these extreme point drops have occurred since 2018, as the index’s higher overall value makes large point swings more common than they were in the 20th century. For context, the infamous “Black Monday” crash of 1987 saw a record 22.6% decline, but that represented a drop of “only” 508 points.
History of 1,000+ Point Drops
The frequency of these drops has increased significantly in recent years:
-
2020 (The Pandemic): 8 times
-
2025: 4 times (including the third-largest drop in history on April 4, 2025)
-
2022: 4 times
-
2018: 2 times (the first closing drop of 1,000+ points occurred on Feb 5, 2018)
-
2024: 2 times
-
2026: On March 3, the Dow plunged 1,048 points (2.1%) due to escalating geopolitical tensions
The 5 Largest Single-Day Point Drops
Rank
Date
Point Drop
Event / Context
1
March 16, 2020
-2,997.10
COVID-19 pandemic panic
2
March 12, 2020
-2,352.60
COVID-19 pandemic panic
4
March 9, 2020
-2,013.76
COVID-19 & oil price war
5
June 11, 2020
-1,861.82
Fears of a second COVID wave
Note on “Intraday” Drops: If you include days where the market fell 1,000 points during the session but recovered before the close, the number is higher. For example, there have been at least 24 instances where the Dow was down 1,000+ points at some point during the trading day.
The Takeaway
The frequency of these drops is increasing because the Dow’s total value is higher than ever. A “1,000-point drop” is the new “200-point drop.” While the 11 biggest point losses in history all happened under Trump, only one (March 16, 2020) actually ranks in the top 20 largest percentage losses.
Guest Posts
MOC Recap
The 3/3/26 MOC tape opened quietly at 15:50 with a token +$69M net print, then flipped into “real” auction mode one minute later as participation exploded to roughly 691 symbols. At 15:51, the market showed +$426M net, driven by $3.838B of buy imbalance versus $3.412B sell. From there, the close developed as a steady buy-leaning program with frequent rebalancing: net rose to +$737M at 15:52, dipped to +$134M at 15:53, then rebuilt sharply into 15:54 (+$908M) and peaked at 15:55 with a sizable +$1.424B net (buys $4.010B vs sells $2.586B). After the peak, the imbalance cooled but remained positive through the final minutes, ending at 16:00 around +$358M (buys $1.075B vs sells $718M). Dollar lean stayed buy-side (roughly 53%–61%), but the weighted/breadth read stayed negative near -50s, signaling a “buy dollars, sell breadth” profile—bigger size concentrated in fewer names, while more symbols tilted sell.
Sector leadership was clear. Consumer Cyclical posted +$272.98M with a 73.6% dollar lean—above the 66% threshold and indicative of a more wholesale buy program. Technology was the other major bid with +$554.01M, but its ~59% lean was more rotational than one-way. Utilities (+$94.06M, 65.0%) and Healthcare (+$65.94M, 56.7%) leaned supportive, while Consumer Defensive was the standout sell: -$325.77M with a -95.4% lean and -77.8% breadth—decisively wholesale selling. Real Estate (-$52.47M, -65.9%) also hovered near the notable threshold on the sell side.
On the single-name list, buy imbalances clustered in semis and mega-cap growth (MU +$704.56M, NVDA +$176.84M, INTC +$169.56M) alongside NFLX (+$201.99M), ADBE (+$167.75M), MSFT (+$113.63M), and AMZN (+$96.44M). The sell sheet was led by AAPL ($292.59M), META ($275.47M), LRCX ($261.30M), TXN ($216.79M), and INTU ($149.83M), with defensive staples like KO and MDLZ also offered—reinforcing the cyclical-up/defensive-down rotation into the close.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for March 4, 2026:
-
SP: 7.4
-
NQ: 32.4
-
Dow: 47.55
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Tuesday, March 3, 2026
-
NYSE Breadth: 22% Upside Volume
-
Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
-
Total Breadth: 35% Upside Volume
-
NYSE Advance/Decline: 23% Advance
-
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 27% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 25% Advance
-
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 81 / 79
-
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 65 / 292
-
NYSE TRIN: 1.04
-
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.48
Weekly Market 📈
For the week ending Friday, February 27, 2026
-
NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
-
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
-
Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
-
NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
-
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
-
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 446 / 178
-
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 576 / 554
-
NYSE TRIN: 0.70
-
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
NOTE DATE CHANGE #####
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Theme of the day: Patience + structure alignment paid. Early noise, later squeeze.
Pre-market / Open prep
-
David posted the daily plan and links, and the room came in with the right mindset: fresh start, same process, clean setups, disciplined execution.
-
Early note: HIGH ALERT on NinjaTrader lagging/running behind data, and David’s NinjaTrader went down. Good reminder that when your tools get shaky, you tighten up risk and expectations.
The open: mixed results + immediate risk management
-
Open Range sequence:
-
CL: Target 1 filled, and David trailed stop to entry on the balance (great example of protecting the trade after partials).
-
ES & NQ: both stopped out early.
-
-
Lesson: early session had chop/false moves, so taking the hit quickly and not forcing the next trade was key.
Mid-morning: structure starts to “talk”
-
David leaned into JAR (flexibility + staying aligned with intra-swings), calling out that “snaps n traps” were high on the list today.
-
Market action required patience—room members noted false moves, and David’s read focused on levels/structure rather than prediction.
Late morning: the level that mattered held
-
DLMB (Dlevel Money Box Zone) took time but ultimately held.
-
David reinforced that structure played out very well and said it plainly: patience was the key.
-
Price rotated back toward the “Romulan Neutral Midpoint VWAP zone” from the DLMB, and David raised odds of a bull squeeze setting up.
Teaching moment: “first pullback” vs “discount”
-
David clarified a great nuance:
-
In an up continuation, when A4 Re-Aligns (NREAL) it can also form a Discount.
-
Structurally, they’re the same, and both reads are valid.
-
-
This is a strong takeaway: don’t get stuck in labeling—focus on structure + alignment + execution rules.
Afternoon: “Squeeze-Play Fury” delivered
-
After lunch, David called Operation “Squeeze-Play Fury” and it played out cleanly.
-
He highlighted the full sequence:
-
Early push below CD1 Low found buy response at Lower Violation Level 6737.32, aligned with Money Box 6729.75.
-
Once price cleared/converted 6750 and reclaimed CD1 Low 6768.50, the “all clear” buy signal kicked in.
-
Price fulfilled upper target 6839.94, then pushed to the 3-Day Cycle Rally Target 6846.33 (officially fulfilled by ~2:53pm).
-
-
He noted the Cycle Day 2 call option play was explosive.
Close: fuel into the finish
-
Into the final stretch David called the closing rip, with MOC buy imbalance ~$1.4B helping drive the late bid.
What went well (positives)
-
Great trade management on CL: T1 + stop to entry on remainder = professional risk handling.
-
Quick acceptance of ES/NQ stop-outs: no revenge trading, stayed process-driven.
-
Patience through chop: DLMB holding and the later squeeze rewarded waiting for structure confirmation.
-
Clear trigger logic: reclaiming key handles/levels (6750, CD1 low 6768.50) before “all clear” buying.
Lessons to carry forward
-
Platform/data issues = extra caution. If charts/data lag, reduce size, widen patience, and demand higher-quality confirmation.
-
Choppy opens are common: survive the open, then thrive when structure becomes cleaner.
-
Don’t debate labels—trade the structure. “First pullback” vs “discount” doesn’t matter if the alignment + rules are the same.
-
When cycle targets are fulfilled: David confirmed it sets up a Wildcard Day next (per Ram’s question).
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Morning Market Brief (DTG)
-
Top drivers: Markets remain focused on US/Iran conflict headlines and weekly Unemployment Claims. Volatility is elevated after Tuesday’s selloff (major indexes ~-1%).
-
Energy/inflation backdrop: Oil surged ~4.7% Tuesday and continued higher overnight, pushing gas prices up. The sharp oil move is seen as inflationary, which reduces the odds of near-term Fed cuts (and complicates any political pressure to cut quickly).
-
Global risk-off / AI unwind: Asian funds are rapidly reducing exposure to hot AI markets: reported sales of $3.1B South Korea and $3.6B Taiwan equities. Samsung / SK Hynix ~-20% this week, TSMC ~-7%. Kospi plunged ~12% and Thailand saw an AI-linked selloff triggering a halt.
-
AI policy headline: Anthropic’s Claude hit #1 free app downloads after a public confrontation with the US government; OpenAI noted ongoing DOD work with “guardrails,” drawing criticism from some observers.
-
Earnings watch:
-
Premarket: DY, KB, WF
-
After close: AVGO, EC, OKTA
-
Thursday AM: BABA, BILI, BJ, BURL, CNQ, CIEN, JD, KR
-
-
Economic calendar (ET):
-
8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
-
9:45am S&P Global Services PMI
-
10:00am ISM Services PMI
-
10:30am Crude Oil Inventories
-
2:00pm Fed Beige Book
-
-
ES (S&P futures) technicals/volatility:
-
Still in a 4-month sideways consolidation under ATHs.
-
5-day ADR jumped to ~116.5 points (Iran conflict fear bid).
-
No whale bias: overnight large trader volume light/mixed.
-
ES remains below the 50-day MA (~6933.25); 200-day MA (~6676) now in play as loose support.
-
Bears broke the intermediate uptrend channel bottom but stalled near S2 Tuesday before a ~130-pt retracement; ES now mid short-term downtrend channel, leaving room for both sides.
-
Key ES levels (Potential TLs):
-
Resistance: 6966/61, 7200/05
-
Support: 6723/26, 6635/30
The market focus remains on the US/Iran conflict, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Services PMI.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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