Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations

Highlights and News:  

• G-7, IEA TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE JOINT RELEASE OF OIL RESERVES – FT
• Iran chose Ali Khamenei’s hardline son Mojtaba as supreme leader
• Tehran said it can sustain the war at this level for at least six months
• Russia is providing Iran with intelligence information about US positions and movements:
  CBS News
• Putin: “I emphasize my firm support for Tehran and solidarity with our Iranian friends”
• A record ~40M barrels of crude from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela is sitting on tankers off China’s coast
• US Home Relistings Hit Record High, And One-Third Are Cheaper
  

Global stocks fell sharply amid an inflationary surge driven by soaring oil prices, which threatened to push up living expenses and interest rates globally.  WTI
crude soars as much as 31% before paring some of the gains on FT report that G-7 will discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves.  Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader after a “decisive vote,” signaling Tehran won’t back down in a
war now raging across the Middle East. Trump said $100 oil is a “small price to pay” for US and world safety and peace amid a war with Iran that is now in its 10th day. The IDF said it has begun a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the
Iranian regime across Tehran, Isfahan, and southern Iran. Tehran has said it can sustain the war at this level for at least six months. About $6 trillion in global equity market value has been wiped out since the war in Iran began. The MSCI World Index falls
0.6%.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are sharply lower, but well-off overnight lows, as traders price in the potential for a lengthy conflict in the Middle East. Iran named the hardline son of the late
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader, while Trump is said to be weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s uranium. The latest geopolitical escalation may have a relatively limited lifespan, and investors should
be prepared to step in after the initial bout of de-risking, according to JPMorgan strategists. Short positions in US-listed exchange traded funds rose by 8.3% last week, the biggest increase since Liberation Day, according to the Goldman Sachs Prime Trading
Desk. Vanda Research said that Friday’s record net buying by retail investors in the United States Oil Fund ETF suggests bullish oil bets may be the next “meme theme.” Hims & Hers surged premarket after Novo Nordisk was said to have ended its public feud with
an agreement to sell its weight-loss drugs on the Hims platform.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -0.9%, Russell 2000 -1.4%, DJI -0.9%

In pre-market trading, Oil and gas companies are extending gains during the turmoil in energy markets. Among movers: Chevron (CVX) +0.7%, Exxon (XOM) +0.8%, APA (APA)
+2%. Airline and mining stocks tumble on the higher energy prices and concern over weaker economic growth. Delta (DAL) falls 3% and Alaska (ALK) is down 3%. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) rises 4% after saying it received its first volume order for its 1.6T
data center transceivers from one of its long-term major hyperscale customers. decision based on an interim responder analysis in a Phase 3 trial of claseprubart in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) jumps 39% after
Bloomberg News reported that Novo Nordisk plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on the telehealth company’s platform, ending a public feud. Jefferies (JEF) falls 3% after being downgraded to equal-weight by Morgan Stanley analysts who cite credit concerns due
to the bank’s exposure to the bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands and the failed UK lender MFS. Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV) rises 7% after Politico reported that the company reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in its antitrust
case. Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) soars 43% after announcing its experimental epilepsy drug azetukalner met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial for focal onset seizures.

European gauges are lower for a third straight day. Mining and real estate shares lead declines, while energy outperforms. European fossil-fuel
extraction companies rise as news of production cuts in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel and lifted natural gas futures as much as 30% in Europe. Roche drops as much as 7.5% after a late-stage study of the Swiss pharmaceutical company’s
experimental breast-cancer drug failed to meet the trial’s main goal. Ipsen shares fall as much as 4.5% after the pharmaceutical company said it is voluntarily withdrawing its Tazverik cancer drug from all markets. Cosmo Pharmaceuticals fell as much as 15%
after the company forecast revenue for 2026 that missed estimates. Nexi rallies as much as 4.8%, following last week’s 20% drop, as Morgan Stanley upgrades the payments company to equal-weight. Stoxx 600 -1.6%, DAX -1.6%, CAC -2%, FTSE 100 -1.1%. Basic Resources
-3.2%, Real Estate -2.9%, Autos -2.3%, Travel & Leisure -2.3%. Energy +0.1%.

Shares in Asia tumbled as the escalating Iran war drove oil near $120 a barrel and fueled fears of a fresh inflationary shock. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index slumped as much as 5.6%, entering correction territory before paring losses on a report that the G7 finance ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves. The Kospi crashed as much as 8.8% before triggering a trading halt. Technology
stocks were among the worst hit in the region, also weighed down by Oracle and OpenAI scrapping plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas. The MSCI’s gauge of tech stocks was down as much as 8.5%.  Chinese software shares surged
after local government agencies joined tech leaders such as Tencent Holdings in promoting viral AI software OpenClaw, spurring hopes of a fresh wave of development in the sector. MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.9%. Vietnam -6.5%, Kospi -6%, Nikkei 225 -5.2%,
Philippines -5%, Taiwan -4.4%, Indonesia -3.3%, ASX 200 -2.8%, Thailand -1.9%, Singapore -1.9%, Sensex -1.7%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%, CSI 300 -1%, Hang Seng Tech Index -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries remain under pressure after gapping lower at the Asia open as oil extended its surge. The energy price shock is rippling through all other assets, with
bonds tumbling on fears of stagflation and traders reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts. US 10-year yield is up around 3 basis point to 4.16% with the curve slightly flatter: 2s10s -1bp, 5s30s -1bp. US session has few scheduled events, and Treasury auctions
resume Tuesday. US Treasury to auction 3yr on Tuesday, 10yr on Wednesday, and 30yr on Thursday. Fed policymakers are in an external communications blackout ahead of March 18 policy decision.
US economic data slate includes February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11:00ET.

METALS: 

Gold continues to come under pressure from higher energy prices, with a stronger dollar and dialed-back expectations of rate cuts outweighing the metal’s safe haven
attraction. Spot gold fell as much as 3% to around $5,015 an ounce as the war in the Middle East extended into a second week. Bullion has been pressured as crude’s rally stokes inflation fears in the US, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will
leave interest rates unchanged for longer, or even raise them. Spot gold -1.4%, Silver -1.1%, Copper futures -0.7%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil surged after Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates started reducing output. Brent and WTI futures had soared more than 20–25%, with Brent touching around $119,
before pulling back as the prospect of a coordinated reserve release capped the upside and eased some supply disruption fears. The Financial Times published an article stating that G7 finance ministers were set to discuss (in an emergency call today) a possible
joint/coordinated release of petroleum/emergency oil reserves, coordinated with the IEA. Discussions involved potentially releasing 300–400 million barrels (roughly 25–30% of the ~1.2 billion barrels held in IEA member reserves). A record volume of crude (nearly
40 million barrels) from Iran, Russia and Venezuela is being held on tankers off China’s coast — a potential buffer for its private refiners as the war disrupts flows. There are headlines coming out about Aramco is cutting production from a number of fields.
The reduction is happening in fields that do not produce Arab light grades which can be exported via the Yanbu terminal. So, there is a reallocation of supply that’s happening NOT a CUT, according to Amena Bakr at Kipler. They have been seeing cuts in production
from Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain. Japan started preparations to release oil reserves, the Nikkei reported. WTI +11.3%, Brent +11.2%, US Nat Gas +5.2%, RBOB +7.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose as much as 0.7% before paring gains after the Financial Times reported that G-7 finance ministers will discuss a possible joint
release of petroleum from reserves in an emergency meeting today. Right now, the dollar’s gains reflect America’s position as the world’s biggest oil producer rather than any haven status. Other traditionally safe assets such as the Swiss franc and gold have
all come under pressure, while the commodity-driven Canadian dollar is the only major currency to beat the greenback since the conflict started. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.5%, EURUSD -0.5%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.35%, USDCAD -0.15%,
USDSEK +0.8%, USDNOK +0.9%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.9%, Spot Ethereum +1.9%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Citizens Financial (CFG) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $65
• Cognex (CGNX) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $55
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $40
• Everpure (PSTG) Raised to Outperform at Northland
• Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $15
• GE Vernova (GEV) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $1,100
• H World Group Ltd (HTHT) ADRs Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $62.40
• Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $213
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $82
• PG&E (PCG) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $23
• Redwire (RDW) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $15
• Schneider National (SNDR) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $27
• Terex (TEX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $75
• Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $52
• uniQure (QURE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $35
• USA Compression Partners (USAC) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $31
• Verizon (VZ) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $34
• Zions (ZION) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $65
• Downgrades
• Brown-Forman (BF/B) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $29
• Coterra Energy (CTRA) Cut to Hold at Texas Capital; PT $31
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$28
• Jefferies (JEF) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $49
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$28.20
• Marriott Vacations (VAC) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Paramount (PSKY) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $10
• Scholastic (SCHL) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $37
• Scotiabank (BNS CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$110
• Snap (SNAP) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $5.90
• Starbucks (SBUX) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Valaris (VAL) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Western Alliance (WAL) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $83
• Wix.com (WIX) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $90
• Initiations
• AGI (AGBK) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $15
• Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $16
• Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $17
• Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $17
• Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $21
• Rated New Buy at Goldman
• Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $18
• Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $14.90
• Aktis Oncology (AKTS) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $30
• Arko Petroleum (APC) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $23
• Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $20
• Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $22
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $22
• Avista (AVA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $40
• Fuerte Metals (FMT CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$15
• Immix Biopharma (IMMX) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $23
• ITT Inc. (ITT) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $220
• Jade Biosciences Inc (JBIO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Netflix (NFLX) Resumed Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $105
• Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-U CN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT C$9
• Pharvaris (PHVS) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $52
• Solv Energy (MWH) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $32
• Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $42
• Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $32
• Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $36
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $34
• Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $37
• Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $35
• Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $34
• Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT $37
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $91.97
• Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$17.25
• Webull (BULL) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $9
• X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (XFOR) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $12

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke