Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Weekly Employment Change; 10:00ET Existing Home Sales; 1:00ET 3-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Oil sinks 7% as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation
• Trump and Putin discussed on Monday the war in Iran and prospects for peace in Ukraine
• Airstrikes continued across the Middle East; Iran says it’s not seeking a truce
• IRAN’S IRIB: EXPLOSION OF AN OIL TANKER NEAR ABU DHABI
• China’s exports soared almost 22% in the first two months of the year
• Hegseth: The US won’t end the Iran war until the enemy is defeated

Global stocks rallied and oil prices plunged after President Trump declared the Middle East war could be “over soon.” Overall sentiment has improved from recent volatility
driven by Middle East tensions and oil spikes, which have since pulled back. Putin held a call with Trump on Monday, and shared proposals aimed at achieving a quick political and diplomatic settlement to the Iran conflict, according to Kremlin foreign policy
aide Yuri Ushakov. The leaders also discussed the Ukraine situation and global energy issues, with the roughly one-hour conversation described as frank, businesslike, and substantial. But hopes of a speedy resolution to the conflict faded as Iran’s military
issued defiant statements vowing to press on with the fight. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared they would block all oil exports from the Middle East until US and Israeli attacks stop, prompting President Trump to warn that any such blockade would trigger
strikes on Iran “twenty times harder.” Iran said it’s “absolutely” not seeking a ceasefire in the war as it launched a new wave of missiles at Israel territories including Tel Aviv. The United Arab Emirates said this morning it was responding to a missile
threat from the Islamic Republic.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures give up earlier overnight highs as Iran begins a new wave of missile strikes on Northern Israel and other countries in the region. Iran is “absolutely” not seeking a
ceasefire, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said. Secretary of War Hegseth said “today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.‘ Several Senate Democrats are threatening to force multiple war powers votes and otherwise disrupt
Senate proceedings unless Republicans agree to hold public hearings on the rationale for the US attacks on Iran. Investors are awaiting upcoming US inflation data (CPI later this week) and corporate earnings, highlighted by Oracle today. Bill Ackman seeks
as much as $10 billion in a US IPO of Pershing Square alongside a new closed-end fund.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.25%, Russell 2000 -0.7%, DJI -0.35%

In pre-market trading, BioNTech SE ADRs (BNTX) slump 17% after the vaccine maker forecast revenue for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the
company’s founding duo plan to leave to start a new biotech focused on messenger RNA. Casey’s General Stores (CASY) slips 2% after the convenience-store operator reported revenue for the third quarter that missed. Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) gains 2%
after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight, saying the platform is a winner from AI positioning. Kohl’s (KSS) falls 7% after reporting worse-than-expected sales for last quarter. Teladoc Health (TDOC) rises 8% after Deutsche Bank upgraded
the virtual health-care provider to buy, citing a compelling valuation. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) rises 6% after the drugmaker gave interim results from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a rare autoimmune kidney disease. Zevra Therapeutics
(ZVRA) jumps 15% after the biotech reported adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter.

Shares in Asia rebounded broadly, lifted by an overnight rally on Wall Street and as oil prices plunged in Asia trading following Trump’s comments. Traders are still
watching for any progress in restoring transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy exports that remains effectively closed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.2%, as chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix led the advance. TSMC’s
sales rose 30% in the first two months of the year, driven by strong AI infrastructure buildout. South Korea’s Kospi opened more than 5% higher, leading a rebound in the region. China’s enthusiasm for OpenClaw is igniting a stock rally in local technology
firms moving swiftly to embrace the open-source AI program. Tencent rose over 7% in Hong Kong following the launch of WorkBuddy, which is fully compatible with OpenClaw. Zhipu shares jumped as much as 16% after a report that the company launched an AI agent
called AutoClaw that is also fully compatible with OpenClaw. Kospi +5.3%, Nikkei 225 +2.9%, Singapore +2.2%, Hang Seng Index +2.2%, Taiwan +2.1%, Philippines +2%, Thailand +1.6%, Vietnam +1.5%, CSI 300 +1.3%, ASX 200 +1.1%, Sensex +0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are under slight pressure in early US trading, unwinding a portion of the late-Monday bid sparked by Trump’s suggestion that the strikes on Iran that caused
oil prices to surge in the past week may end soon. US yields are 2.5bp-4bp cheaper with losses led by long-end tenors, steepening 2s10s by about 0.5bp, 5s30s about 1bp; 10-year near 4.13%. This week’s three Treasury auctions begin with 3-year new issue; 10-
and 30-year reopenings follow over next two days.

METALS: 

Gold advanced on a softer dollar after President Trump signaled the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end. Any sign that the White House is prepared to end
the war with Iran could lift some of the pressure that has weighed on gold. Gold has still gained around a fifth this year, but since war broke out, the volume of gold held by exchange-traded funds has declined. Total holdings fell by nearly 30 tons last week,
marking the biggest weekly selloff in more than two years. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +1.5%, Copper futures +0.5%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices plunged, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the prior session, after President Trump predicted the Middle East war could end soon—easing
fears of extended supply disruptions. After Trump described the war on Monday as “very far ahead of schedule” and “very complete,” the bulk of the previous day’s historic crude oil price surge was swiftly reversed. Oil prices remain much lower, with Brent
falling about 7% for the day after Monday saw the biggest intraday price swing on record.  Oil-output cuts deepened in the Gulf, with the Hormuz strait still near-shut. Four Gulf oil giants — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait — have lowered their collective
output by as much as 6.7 million barrels a day. Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and have the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, G-7 energy ministers are set to meet in Paris today, as they continue to debate a possible
release of oil reserves to stabilize markets. Goldman Sachs said because the situation remains fluid, it was not changing its oil price
⁠forecast for Brent at $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter 2026 and WTI at $62 per barrel. 
WTI -5.7%, Brent -6.8%, US Nat Gas -0.9%, RBOB -1.7%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slides to a one week low as concerns eased over a protracted war in Iran. The euro reverses an early loss to trade slightly higher;
ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller said the probability of a rate hike has gone up of late. Yen is holding a small loss after Japan’s GDP expanded 1.3% q/q at an annualized pace in 4Q, based on the final reading published today, compared with 1% estimated
by economists. Solid GDP reading strengthens the case for another Bank of Japan interest-rate increase. Aussie$ is higher as Australia’s central bank Deputy Governor Hauser said further inflationary pressure from the war in Iran would be unhelpful as policymakers
assess the impact on the economy one week out from their interest-rate meeting. US$ Index -0.5%, GBPUSD ~flat, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD is flat, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin +2%, Spot Ethereum +1.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alector (ALEC) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $6
• AT&T (T) Raised to Neutral at Arete; PT $28
• Brunswick (BC) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $91
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $510
• Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Federal Signal (FSS) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $130
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Raised to Neutral at BofA
• Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $24
• Intuit (INTU) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $670
• Rivian (RIVN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $20
• SLR Investment Corp (SLRC) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $16.50
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $40
• Teladoc (TDOC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Downgrades
• Air Canada (AC CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$21
• Day One Biopharma (DAWN) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $21.50
• GN Store Nord (GN DC) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $47
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $42
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $52
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Talkspace (TALK) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $5.25
• Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Initiations
• Amgen (AMGN) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $350
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Coeur Mining (CDE) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT $40
• Crocs (CROX) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Dycom Industries (DY) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $436
• Elicio Therapeutics Inc (ELTX) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw
• Emcor (EME) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $848
• Evommune (EVMN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $48
• Gilead (GILD) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $180
• Karyopharm (KPTI) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $28
• Life Time (LTH) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $40
• Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• National Fuel Gas (NFG) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• NeuroSense Therapeutics (NRSN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $21
• SpyGlass Pharma (SGP) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $37
• Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $175
• Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Strive (ASST) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $12
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $88.34
• Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $83
• UWM Holdings (UWMC) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $8.50
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $580

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke