Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET US January Personal Spending, 4Q GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Price Index;
10:00ET March UMich Sentiment, US January JOLTS Job Openings

Highlights and News:  

• US refueling plane crashes in Iraq as drone and missile strikes escalate
• The U.S. has issued a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian petroleum products currently at sea
• Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years amid concerns about the company’s ability to compete in AI
• The Trump administration began a fresh tariff probe into forced-labor practices in 60 economies, including China, Mexico, the EU and Canada
• Sinners and One Battle After Another leading the field for the Academy Awards on Sunday

Global stock markets are mixed as investors remain concerned about tight energy supply and oil trading hovering around $100 a barrel. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
said Iran will fight on and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, Donald Trump threatened Iran with additional attacks, stating the US “will be hitting Iran very hard over the next week”.  A prolonged war
could hobble manufacturing and drive-up costs, and faster inflation may drive more hawkish monetary policy. Israel launched fresh attacks on Tehran on Friday, while Tehran is seen as behind missile strikes on Dubai and Turkey.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are holding modest gains after rebounding from an early drop and attempting to snap a three-day streak of declines. Investors will be on the lookout for US PCE data due
Friday to confirm expectations of stubbornly high inflation prior to the beginning of the Middle East conflict. Sentiment around Fed policy ahead of its meeting next week have shifted. Traders have scaled back bets that the central bank will cut interest rates
this year. investors will also be paying close attention to Friday’s JOLTS data following a dismal February jobs report.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.3%

In pre-market trading, Adobe shares (ADBE) fall 7.5% after the maker of software for creative professionals announced that Shantanu Narayen will
step down as CEO. EverCommerce Inc. shares (EVCM) fall 21% after the management software firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. ServiceTitan shares (TTAN) slide 6.2%, even as the software
company reported fourth quarter results and gave a full-year outlook that were both above consensus, as results ran up against high expectations. Once Upon a Farm PBC shares (OFRM) fell 21% after the organic kids snacks maker forecast slowing sales growth
in 2026 in its first earnings report as a public company. Mag 7 stocks are among the leaders in early trading.

European gauges are slightly lower after rebounding from big losses earlier in the session. A pullback in energy prices helped with European natural gas futures falling
more than 1%. Euro zone industry shrank in January, an unexpected slip of 1.5% month over month even before the impact of surging energy prices are felt. Banks continue their slide with the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index falling as much as 1.3% before pairing
some losses. In single name stocks, BE Semiconductor Industries NV shares surged as much as 14% after Reuters reported that the semiconductor equipment firm has been fielding takeover interest. Vivendi SE fell after revenue missed forecasts. Stoxx 600 ~flat,
DAX -0.2%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.2%.

Shares in Asia extended losses as Middle East conflict continues, the region’s second straight week of declines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.2% on Friday as
chipmakers weighed on the benchmark. Korea’s Kospi fell as much as 3.4% before paring some of its losses; chip heavyweights Samsung and Hynix down more than 3% each following losses in US peers. Banking shares followed their European peers lower as signs of
distressed private credit weighs on HSBC and Standard Chartered. Japan’s Topix fell 0.6%, led by losses in the transportation equipment and air transportation sector. Indonesia saw the biggest losses in the region as the country wrestles with energy concerns.
President Prabowo stated Indonesia needs to take steps to lower fuel and reiterated a priority for coal and crude palm oil for domestic needs. Taiwan -0.5%, Vietnam -0.8%, Nikkei 225 -1.2%, Kospi -1.7%, CSI 300 -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Philippines -0.9%, Thailand
-1.4%. Hang Seng Index -1.0%, Indonesia -3.0%, Sensex -1.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Front‑end
Treasuries led a sharp bear‑flattening move Thursday as traders rapidly unwound Fed rate‑cut
pricing in response to the latest oil‑driven inflation shock. The 2s10s curve pushed toward
its flattest levels of the year, with 2‑year yields cheaper by around 10bp while 10‑year
yields hovered near 4.26% amid solid 30‑year auction demand that helped anchor the long end.
Rate‑cut premium was aggressively stripped out of SOFR futures, where volumes ran well above
recent averages out to late‑2027.

METALS: 

Gold prices steadied but was poised for a second weekly decline as the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict kept oil prices around $100 and reinforced inflation concerns. The ongoing disruption
through the Strait of Hormuz has dampened expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressuring non-yielding assets like bullion.  Gold remains up roughly 18% YTD, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver -0.6%

ENERGY:   

In oil markets, Brent slips just under $100/barrel after one of the most volatile weeks on record as Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA called
the disruption the largest in oil market history, even as members prepare record emergency reserve releases. The U.S. issued a second temporary waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil to ease price pressure, though traders expect continued turbulence. Jet
fuel prices have surged above $200/bbl in Europe, underscoring strain across refined products.

Brent -0.8% , WTI -1.8%, Nat Gas +1.0%

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar index firmed modestly while the yen slid to its weakest level since July 2024. UK data showed GDP stalling at the start of the
year and January activity undershooting expectations, dragging sterling below $1.33 to its weakest level since early December as markets priced a softer UK growth profile alongside sticky energy‑driven inflation risks. USD/JPY pushed up toward 159.7 despite
stepped‑up Japanese intervention rhetoric, and GBP underperformed both the dollar and euro. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY flat, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.4%,

Spot Bitcoin +2.9%, Spot Ethereum +2.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Air Products (APD) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $325
• Alcoa (AA) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $68
• BBB Foods (TBBB) Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $42
• Celanese (CE) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $70
• El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $14
• Esquire Finl (ESQ) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $125
• Flagstar Bank (FLG) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $16
• Hallador Energy (HNRG) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $27
• Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $64
• Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $23
• Linde (LIN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $525
• NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $6.80
• North American Construction (NOA CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$20
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$136.26
• Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $130
• Qiagen (QGEN) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $54
• Downgrades
• Abacus Global Management (ABX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $11
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $275
• BSR Real Estate (HOM/U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $13
• Columbia Finl (CLBK) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $19
• EverCommerce (EVCM) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Freehold Royalties (FRU CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$17
• Immutep (IMM AU) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $1.50
• Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $2.50
• NerdWallet (NRDS) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $9
• Nokia (NOKIA FH) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Arete
• PSEG (PEG) Cut to Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $84.50
• TIC Solutions (TIC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $8
• Initiations
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Rated New Buy at Soochow Securities Int’l; PT $403.04
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $31
• Axo Copper (AXO CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$2
• Equillium (EQ) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $12
• H2O America (HTO) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $67
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $125
• L3Harris (LHX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) Rated New Neutral at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $40
• Tyson (TSN) Rated New Sell at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $58

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

Bryan Duong