Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Empire Manufacturing; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Capacity
Utilization; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index; 1:00ET Nvidia’s GTC 2026

Highlights and News:  

• Trump threatens Xi summit delay if China doesn’t help in Hormuz
• US Strikes Iran’s Kharg Oil Hub, Urges Hormuz Reopening
• Netanyahu posts video from café to show he is not dead
• Iran denies it wants truce as Dubai airport and oil port damaged
• IDF SAYS DESTROYED TEHRAN SATELLITE ATTACK CAPABILITIES SITE

Global stocks reverse earlier lows to trade moderately higher as crude oil slips following President Trump’s appeal for international cooperation—including warships
from other nations—to escort commercial vessels and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But none of the countries have so far said they’re yet willing to do that. Meanwhile, Iran launched fresh attacks across the Persian Gulf, disrupting shipments at a key United
Arab Emirates oil hub and denying Trump’s assertion that it’s seeking ceasefire talks. The US launched precision strikes against over 90 Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, which handles most of Iran’s oil shipments, as President Trump presses other nations
to join in protecting the Strait of Hormuz. A trickle of vessels is beginning to find a way through Hormuz. Investors are awaiting a busy economic calendar this week, dominated by major central bank decisions. Global stocks last week saw the largest net-selling
by hedge funds since April’s “Liberation Day” tariff turmoil, according to Goldman Sachs’s Prime desk.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are higher as the war in the Middle East enters a third week, with reports of some oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Several strategists are calling the
bottom for equities: Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says the market’s correction phase is nearing its end, and JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka recommends buying the dip. The AI investment boom should offset the drag from modestly weaker economic activity for corporate
earnings in the US, Goldman Sachs says, keeping S&P 500 forecasts for 12% EPS growth this year. After the Mag-7 entered a technical correction on Friday, investors will turn attention to Nvidia’s annual AI conference this week. CEO Jensen Huang is giving a
keynote speech at 2:00ET today. In other corporate news, Meta Platforms is planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +0.7%

In pre-market trading, Meta Platforms (META) rises 3.1% after Reuters reported that the social media giant is planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the
company. Nvidia (NVDA) +1.6%, Tesla (TSLA) +1.2%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.6%, Apple (AAPL) +0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.5% Cohu Inc. shares (COHU) are up 2.5% after Evercore ISI started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with
an outperform rating and $35 price target. Micron Technology shares (MU) are rising 4%, lifting other memory and storage companies, as analyst optimism grows ahead of the chipmaker’s results later this week. National Storage Affiliates shares (NSA) are soaring
28% after Public Storage (PSA -4.1%) agreed to acquire the company for $41.68 per share. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) rises 13% after Meta Platforms Inc. agreed to pay as much as $27 billion over the next five years for access to artificial intelligence infrastructure
from cloud provider. Redwire shares (RDW) are up 4.4% after the aerospace company said it had been awarded a prime contract from Belgium’s armed forces “to build and delivery the country’s first national security satellite.” Sable Offshore Corp. shares (SOC)
rises 8.8% after the energy company said it restarted oil transportation at its California pipeline after the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act.

European gauges bounce off earlier lows to trade broadly higher. Real estate sector leads gains while autos and media shares lag. GN Store Nord shares jump as much
as 42%, the most on record, after Amplifon agreed to buy its hearing-aid business. Amplifon shares drop as much as 13%. Commerzbank shares climb as much as 5.3% after UniCredit made a €35 billion for the lender that will allow it to increase its shareholding
beyond 30%. Idorsia shares fall as much as 18% to a six-month low after the Swiss pharma company said Srishti Gupta will step down as CEO. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.7%. Real Estate +1.7%, Construction +1%, energy +0.9%. Autos -0.6%,
Media -0.5%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index +0.2%. Market signals were mixed, with President Donald Trump saying that the US was talking with
Iran — although the Islamic Republic said it hadn’t asked for talks or a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump raised pressure on other nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He meets later this week with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Hong Kong tech stocks
climbed ahead of earnings due later this week from Tencent and Alibaba. Chinese consumer stocks advanced after retail sales data for the first two months of the year beat estimates. Hang Seng Tech +2.7%, Hang Seng Index +1.5%, Sensex +1.3%, Kospi +1.2%, Singapore
+0.5%, CSI 300 +0.05%. Taiwan -0.2%, Vietnam -0.2%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Topix -0.5%, Indonesia -1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are softer as markets head into a packed week of G-10 central bank meetings, with investors assessing how policymakers will balance the inflationary
pressures and growth headwinds stemming from elevated energy prices. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, though not without dissent. US yields are 3bp-5bp richer with front-end and belly tenors leading, steepening 2s10s spread by around
1bp; 10-year near 4.230% is about 4bp lower on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, however dealers expect around $40 billion this week.

METALS: 

Gold eased on expectations of greater caution from policymakers at upcoming central bank gatherings this week. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver -0.6%, Copper futures +0.7%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil reverses an earlier advance made after a second attack in three days on Fujairah, a vital port in the UAE that’s just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through
the Strait has been all but halted since the war started, though a vessel controlled by Pakistan appears to have made the journey. The US struck military sites on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports almost all its oil, with President Trump saying military
facilities had been “obliterated”. Iran reacted by warning it will target American-linked oil and energy facilities in the Middle East if its own petroleum infrastructure is attacked. On Sunday, the International Energy Agency announced that more than 400
million barrels of emergency oil reserves will soon begin entering the global market, marking an unprecedented record draw. WTI -2.5%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB -0.1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen is firmer against the dollar after Japan’s finance minister said authorities are prepared to respond to movements in the currency market
with bold steps if necessary.  Both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ prepare policy decisions this week. The BOJ is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged. Australia’s “Big Four” lenders expect the central bank to raise its cash rate by a quarter
percentage point, while hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the options markets last week. US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD +0.5%, EURUSD +0.6%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +1.1%, NZDUSD +1.2%, USDCHF -0.5%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -1.1%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin +2.9%, Spot Ethereum +7.4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Raised to Buy at Clear Street; PT $136
• Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $326
• Intuit (INTU) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $463
• LifeMD (LFMD) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $8
• PennyMac (PFSI) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $115
• Petrobras (PETR4 BZ) ADRs Raised to Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $21
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $22
• Seacor Marine (SMHI) Raised to Buy at Clarksons; PT $10
• ServiceNow (NOW) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $140
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $22
• Trade Desk (TTD) Raised to Neutral at Arete; PT $25
• Upstart (UPST) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $43
• Downgrades
• Anglogold (AU) Cut to Equal-Weight at ABSA Securities; PT $113.30
• Didi Global (DIDIY) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $4
• ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $3.90
• Hain Celestial (HAIN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 50 cents
• HeartBeam (BEAT) Cut to Speculative Buy at Benchmark; PT $8
• KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $2
• Meren Energy (MER CN) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT C$2.32
• Newlake Capital Partners (NLCP) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $15
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Sell at Seaport Global Securities; PT $100
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies
• Initiations
• Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $160
• Alamo Group (ALG) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Atlassian (TEAM) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $95
• Cohu (COHU) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $35
• Design Therapeutics (DSGN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $15
• Eaton Corp (ETN) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $430
• Elemental Royalty Corp (ELE CN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright
• JFrog (FROG) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $60
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT $4.30
• MediciNova (MNOV) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
• Opus Genetics Inc (IRD) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $10
• PayPay (PAYP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $22.90
• Solid Power (SLDP) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $7
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $85
• Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $23

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke