Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Weekly Employment Change; 8:30ET New York Fed Services Business Activity;  10:00ET
Pending Home Sales; 1:00ET $13 billion 20-year bond reopening

Highlights and News:  

• IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER REJECTS PROPOSALS TO REDUCE TENSIONS:RTRS
• Oil prices jump 4% after renewed Iranian attacks on UAE
• IDF has launched a wide-ranging wave of strikes on regime infrastructure across Tehran
• Israel Says Iran Security Chief Larijani Was Killed
• US told Cuba that President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down for talks to progress
• Iran set a massive natural gas field in the United Arab Emirates ablaze
• COMCAST TO ACCELERATE AI APPS USING NVIDIA INFRASTRUCTURE

Global stocks are mixed in cautious trading after Iran attacked energy infrastructure around the Middle East, driving oil prices higher again. Trump reiterated his
calls for other countries to assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic remains severely limited to just a trickle of vessels. He also delayed a planned summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, pushing it back by roughly a month. The “frothy
bull” market sentiment of the past few months is ending as global investors turn bearish, according to Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey. Cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, BofA’s Michael
Hartnett wrote. Traders are bracing for policy decisions from the Fed, ECB, BOJ, Bank of England, and others this week (with the RBA’s hike already delivered). The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates for a second time this year as it
⁠grapples with a renewed bout of inflation, taking its benchmark rate to 4.1%.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are inching into the green after pulling back modestly amid renewed oil price pressure and inflation worries ahead of Fed discussions. AI news has taken a back seat
in the markets right now, as Nvidia shares showed only a muted response to CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at the GTC 2026 conference—where he unveiled new products and boldly forecasted at least $1 trillion in revenue from the company’s flagship AI chips through
the end of 2027. Artificial intelligence data center developer Nebius Group NV said it intends to raise about $3.75 billion in convertible debt on the heels of a major commercial deal with Meta Platforms. Private credit default rates will climb to 8% as AI
advances disrupt the software industry, Morgan Stanley analysts said. Earnings from Lululemon and Docusign are due after the close.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq is flat, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.15%

In pre-market trading, Coherent and Lumentum, developers of data center optical components, fall after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments that copper wires remain important
in server racks. Coherent (COHR) falls 4% and Lumentum (LITE) declines 4%. Delta Air Lines (DAL) rises 4% after issuing a more optimistic sales target for the first quarter. Janus Henderson Group (JHG) climbs 2% after Victory Capital Holdings submitted an
improved proposal to acquire the company. Lemonade (LMND) rises 6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to overweight, noting that the insurer is an early-stage winner as autonomous vehicles transform the auto insurance industry. Semtech (SMTC) falls about
2% after the chipmaker provided an outlook that failed to extend the stock’s 2026 rally. Uber (UBER) gains 3% after the rideshare firm and Nvidia said they will expand their autonomous vehicle partnership to launch a global fleet of Nvidia software-driven
autonomous vehicles.

European gauges climb, led by energy and utilities while software names dragged down the IT sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is near the highs of the day after reversing
early losses. Fraport shares climb ~5% after the German airport operator encouraged investors by reporting positive free cash flow. Springer Nature jumped as much as 9.6% after the German publishing group reported results. Wickes shares rose as much as 8.6%
as full-year sales and profit beat analysts’ forecasts. Allegro shares fall as much as 4% as InPost’s plan to launch an AI shopping assistant was seen posing a competitive thread to online market places. Investor optimism for European economic growth this
year has plunged sharply since the Iran war escalated, as fears of stagflation intensify, per Bank of America’s latest European fund manager survey. A net 29% of managers now anticipate an acceleration in growth—down dramatically from a record-high 74% just
a month ago. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.7%.  Utilities +1.8%, Energy +1.5%, Insurance +1%. Technology -1%, Media -0.9%.

Shares in Asia rose as tech shares advanced with help from an upbeat Nvidia outlook while investors continued to eye crude prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained
0.9%, with Samsung and TSMC among the biggest contributors after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled new products at a company event. Samsung unveiled its next-generation AI chip HBM4E, while South Korean conglomerate SK Group said that a global shortage of memory
chips is likely to persist another four to five years. Trade concerns also remain on investors’ minds, after President Trump said he had requested to delay a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for about a month, citing the need to oversee the Iran war.
Asian auto shares, including BYD and Hyundai, climbed after the companies announced they will work with Nvidia on its autonomous vehicle development business. Thailand +2%, Kospi +1.6%, Taiwan +1.5%, Singapore +1.4%, Indonesia +1.2%, Vietnam +1%, Sensex +0.7%,
Topix +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.1%. CSI 300 -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are steady with 10-year yield around 4.22% and the curve slightly steeper. Treasuries face duration supply today in the form of 20-year bond reopening
and another heavy corporate new-issue slate expected. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far; eight borrowers raised a total of nearly $30 billion on Monday. Morgan Stanley is sticking with its forecast for a cut in June and another reduction
in September.

METALS: 

Gold is steady, trading in a narrow range as traders weighed inflationary risks against attempts to contain an oil-supply shock. Appetite for bullion has remained
particularly resilient in China, where investors have added to gold holdings in exchange-traded funds every day since returning from the Lunar New Year break on Feb. 24. Spot gold -0.05%, Silver -0.6%, Copper futures -1.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rebounded after the first notable pullback in almost a week, as Iran pressed on with attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East. Brent rallied
above $103 a barrel, after slipping almost 3% on Monday, while WTI trades around $97. Operations were suspended at the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates, while an Iraqi oil field was also targeted by drones and missiles. Additionally, crude loadings
at the UAE’s key export terminal in Fujairah were halted once more due to renewed drone attacks, further tightening supply concerns. Iran has allowed some Indian vessels to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, which
⁠eased some concerns on Monday, though traders still expect severe disruption. A Pakistani
tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz by staying close to Iran’s coast, highlighting an apparent approved route. Separately, a Hong Kong-owned bulk carrier passed through the chokepoint today. Trump threatened to expand strikes on Kharg Island to target oil infrastructure
after sparing energy assets on the key Iranian export hub last weekend. WTI +3.3%, Brent +3.3%, US Nat Gas +1.2%, RBOB +3.9%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is little changed as investors shifted their focus toward an upcoming series of major central bank meetings, while uncertainty lingers
over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The Australian dollar fluctuated after the nation’s central bank raised the cash rate, but the policy committee showed a narrow vote split.  RBA raised rates by 25 basis points due to inflationary pressures
from the war with Iran. The yen steadied as Japan’s finance minister said recent currency moves are not in line with fundamentals, reiterating warnings of possible action by authorities. US$ Index +0.02%, GBPUSD -0.02%, EURUSD +0.03%, USDJPY +0.04%, AUDUSD
+0.15%, NZDUSD -0.35%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.2%, Spot Ethereum -0.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Adecoagro (AGRO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $13
• Align Technology (ALGN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $200
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $19
• Dover (DOV) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $230
• Ichor (ICHR) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $55
• Latam Airlines (LTM CI) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $58
• Lemonade (LMND) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $85
• National Storage (NSA) Raised to Inline at Evercore ISI
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $33
• Target Hospitality (TH) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $11
• WP Carey (WPC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $76
• Downgrades
• Conmed (CNMD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $39
• Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $850
• Li Auto (LI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $19
• Meren Energy (MER CN) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT C$2.49
• NNN REIT (NNN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Playstudios (MYPS) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Roche (ROG SW) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $50
• Stoneridge (SRI) Cut to Market Perform at Barrington Research
• Initiations
• Belo Sun Mining (BSX CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
• Ingredion (INGR) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $130
• Navan (NAVN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $13
• Nektar (NKTR) Reinstated Buy at TD Cowen
• Power Metallic Mines Inc (PNPN CN) Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT C$2.85
• PTC Inc. (PTC) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $180
• Tantalus Systems Holding (GRID CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• Tenax Therapeutics (TENX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $35
• TIC Solutions (TIC) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $10

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke