Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, 9:15ET ECB Rate Decision; 10:00ET Leading Index, New
Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories; 11:15ET Trump meets with Japan PM at White House; 1:00ET 10-year TIPS reopening

Highlights and News:  

• IRAN WORKING ON LAW TO CHARGE SHIPS FOR HORMUZ SAFE PASSAGE
• Saudi Arabia says trust in Iran is broken, warns of military response
• Russian Energy Ministry: Fuel export ban may be introduced
• European Gas Jumps 35% After World’s Top LNG Plant Hit by Iran
• Trump calls for de-escalation of attacks on gas sites
• EU PARLIAMENT TO HOLD VOTE ON US TRADE DEAL NEXT WEEK
  
• Uber to Invest Up to $1.25 Billion in Rivian in Robotaxi Deal
• Zillow home value index sets new record in February
  

Global stocks extended losses after a surge in oil and gas prices deepened concerns that the war in the Middle East will stoke inflation and hit growth. President
Trump stated that Israel would refrain from launching any further strikes on Iranian facilities in the South Pars gas field unless Iran attacks Qatar, while warning that the US would respond decisively if Tehran targeted Doha or its infrastructure. Saudi Arabia
warned it may respond militarily to Iran and said any trust in Tehran has collapsed, the kingdom’s foreign minister announced early today. Iran has asked the UN for compensation from the UAE, accusing it of facilitating US attacks by allowing its territory
to be used. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament is advancing a proposal that would require countries to pay tolls and taxes to the Islamic Republic for using the Strait of Hormuz as a transit route for shipping, energy, and food supplies.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slid as crude prices soared on intensifying hostilities in the Middle East, fanning inflation worries that have prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious
stance on interest rate cuts this year. Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs and Barclays in pushing back its forecast for an interest rate cut to September from June. The amount invested by retail investors shrunk by about 15% compared to last week, according
to JPMorgan, bringing the overall decline since the start of the Iran conflict to around 43%. Despite a strong forecast from Micron Technology, investor sentiment remained subdued, with the company’s shares falling over 4% in pre-market trading. Traders appeared
to focus on the semiconductor firm’s elevated capital expenditure plans amid persistently high borrowing costs. Expectations of sustained higher interest rates and a strengthening US dollar pressured precious metals prices, dragging shares of gold and silver
miners sharply lower—with Gold Fields and Endeavour Silver each tumbling around 9%. In focus today will be a US-Japan summit that President Trump may use to press for help on the war in Iran after his earlier call on allies to safeguard passage through the
⁠strategic Strait of Hormuz went unanswered.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Russell 2000 -1%, DJI -0.6%

In pre-market trading, Accenture shares (ACN) are down 4.4% after the IT services company gave a third-quarter revenue outlook that is below the analyst consensus.
Alibaba’s ADRs (BABA) fall 5% as earnings plunged while revenue barely grew. Canadian Solar shares (CSIQ) fall 20% after it reported a wider than expected fourth-quarter loss and forecast first-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate as global
storage volumes declined. Dlocal shares (DLO) are up 10% after the emerging markets payment services provider’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics. Five Below shares (FIVE) gain 5.9% after the retailer forecast net sales for the first
quarter that beat. Freshworks Inc. shares (FRSH) are down 2.9% after Oppenheimer & Co downgraded the software company to perform from outperform. Micron Technology shares (MU) fall 5.8% after the chipmaker gave a forecast for capital spending that was higher
than expected. Mining stocks (NEM -9.2%, B -7.9%) fell, while energy (EQT +1.3%, COP +1%) and chemicals stocks (NTR +2.1%) rose as oil prices gained as attacks on energy facilities escalated in the Middle East war. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics shares (MLTX)
are up 4.4% after Rothschild & Co Redburn raised the drug developer to buy from neutral, citing a clearer path towards regulatory approval. Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) rises 8.3% after Uber said it plans to invest as much as $1.25 billion in the carmaker
to help launch a robotaxi fleet. Xponential Fitness shares (XPOF) are down 3.5% after Raymond James downgraded the company by two notches, to market perform from strong buy.

MU relative to XLK: up over 380% since Apil lows

Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small
section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know
this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field
unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar – In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength
and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate
to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

European gauges fell for a second consecutive day as escalating attacks on critical infrastructure in the Middle East drove energy prices higher. Mining stocks led
the sell-off, with the intensifying regional conflict heightening concerns over broader economic damage, while airline shares also underperformed as analysts anticipate challenges in fully passing the abrupt fuel cost surge onto passengers. Among individual
names, Aker Solutions shares jump over 10% after the Norwegian energy industry services company announced its board is proposing an extraordinary cash dividend of NOK5.00 per share.  Gulf Keystone gained as much as 5.8% after the oil and gas company delivered
2025 results ahead of expectations. Inwit shares slump as much as 26% to a record low after customers Swisscom and Telecom Italia announced a joint venture to develop their own tower infrastructure. Accor shares fall as much as 9.8% after Grizzly Research
says it is short the hotelier’s stock. D’Amico International Shipping shares slump as much as 18% after its biggest single investor sold shares at a significant discount.  Stoxx 600 -2%, DAX -2.3%, CAC -1.6%, FTSE 100 -2.1%. Basic Resources -4.9%, Defense
-3.2%, Travel -3.1%. Energy ~flat. 

Shares in Asia were broadly lower, snapping a three-day advance, as surging energy prices and warnings from policymakers about a weakening economic outlook damped risk
appetite across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.7% with all major markets in the region in the red. Tech stocks like TSMC, Tencent and Samsung were among the top drags on the regional benchmark, while miners — including Australian gold producers
and Japan’s Sumitomo Metal — were the biggest decliners. Tencent shares fell after China’s most valuable company said it plans to curtail buybacks and failed to deliver a convincing strategy on profiting from agentic AI. The Federal Reserve raised its inflation
outlook for the year while deciding to stand pat on rates. Bank of Japan also left the policy rate unchanged today as Iran war clouds the economic outlook. Nikkei 225 -3.4%, Sensex -3.3%, Kospi -2.7%, Hang Seng Index -2%, Taiwan -1.9%, ASX 200 -1.6%, CSI 300
-1.6%, Vietnam -0.9%, Philippines -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries have extended Wednesday’s steep curve-flattening selloff, leaving front-end yields about 10bp higher. Traders no longer priced in any chance of an interest-rate
cut in the US this year after the Bank of England said it would be ready to act against inflation. US 10-year yield, about 4bp higher on the day near 4.30%: 2s10sflatter by 7bps.

METALS: 

Gold plummets at a historic rate as central banks deliver hawkish signals amidst signs of inflation. Spot gold falls for a seventh session and its worst losing streak
since October 2023 as warnings from Fed’s Jerome Powell and the Bank of England’s preparation to act on inflation weigh on metals. Spot gold drops toward $4,600/oz and silver falls below $70/oz as rates cuts are priced out due to rising inflation and the Iran
War. Copper, often considered a barometer of global growth, has wiped out year-to-date gains. Spot gold -4.4%, Silver -9.6%, Copper futures -3.6%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil extended gains with brent crude surging as much as 10% following attacks on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities, raising concerns of an
escalating impact from the conflict. WTI crude futures pared gains after President Trump called for de-escalation of attacks on gas sites. Strait of Hormuz traffic stays below 10% of normal. European natural gas prices surged 35% after Iranian missile strikes
caused damage to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export plant in Qatar. The escalation comes at a tricky time for Europe, which faces the need to secure additional LNG cargoes this summer to replenish critically low storage levels, while competing
with Asian buyers for a significantly reduced pool of available supplies amid the disruptions. Israel carried out
⁠the South Pars gas field attack, but the US and Qatar were not involved, President Trump
said late on Wednesday. Trump said Israel would refrain from further strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field. However, the president also said that the US would “massively blow up the entirety” of South Pars if Iran targets Qatar’s LNG facilities again. WTI
+0.9%, Brent +5.7%, US Nat Gas +3.7%, RBOB +2.4%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is easing off its early gains. The BOJ kept its key rate unchanged at 0.75% but left the possibility of an April interest rate hike
on the table. The yen firmed after BOJ’s hawkish hold. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she has an extremely high sense of urgency regarding recent currency moves, adding that authorities will do their utmost to respond to currency moves at any time.
The SNB left its policy rate at 0%, as expected. The Swiss National Bank stated it stands ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary, amid heightened safe-haven demand boosting the Swiss franc due to the escalating Middle East conflict. Sweden’s
Riksbank also held its key rate, at 1.75%, and said it would remain at this level for some time. US$ Index ~flat, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -2.5%, Spot Ethereum -1.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Carnival (CCL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
• Five Below (FIVE) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Mastercard (MA) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $600
• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) US Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $40
• Nubank (NU) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $17.60
• SouthState Bank (SSB) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $110
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $35
• Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $262
• Downgrades
• AutoCanada (ACQ CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$22
• Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$24
• CSX (CSX) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $41
• Freshworks (FRSH) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $312
• Life360 (360 AU) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $40
• Micron (MU) Cut to Hold at Summit Insights
• Xponential (XPOF) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• ADP (ADP) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim
• Altimmune (ALT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $12
• ALX Oncology (ALXO) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $5
• Dianthus Therapeutics Inc (DNTH) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
• EnerSys (ENS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $190
• FrontView REIT (FVR) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $20.50
• Globe Life (GL) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $170
• Inventiva SACA (IVA FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $13
• MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $35
• Newamsterdam Pharma (NAMS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $57
• Okta (OKTA) Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $100
• Paychex (PAYX) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $88
• Sabesp (SBSP3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $36.60
• Slide Insurance (SLDE) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $25
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
• Vor BioPharma (VOR) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke