Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 24, 2026

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Weekly Employment Change; 8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity,
Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index – Business Conditions; 1:00ET 2-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

  • Saudi Arabia and the UAE are Taking Steps to Join the War – WSJ
  • US to continue Iran strikes, pause applies only to energy sites: Semafor
  • Iran Strikes Persist Even as Trump Claims Talks to End Conflict
  • Pakistan has proposed that US-Iran talks take place in the capital of Islamabad as early as this week
  • ISRAEL CONTINUING IRAN STRIKES AT FULL INTENSITY: KATZ
  • THAI SHIP PASSED THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN’S TASNIM SAYS
  • Lebanon has withdrawn accreditation from the Iranian ambassador, demanding his departure
  • Markwayne Mullin was confirmed Department of Homeland Security Secretary

 

Global stocks edged lower in choppy trading while oil rose as investors weighed a wide range of possible outcomes from the Middle East conflict. Markets stayed on
edge amid a flood of headlines on the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran, after President Trump signaled a potential end to hostilities. Most investors remain in “hyper alert” mode, awaiting confirmed talks between the US and Iran for clearer direction. Iran’s
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ali Nikzad said the Strait of Hormuz would not be returned to its previous state, and there would be no negotiations with Washington. US allies in the Persian Gulf are inching toward joining the fight, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to restore deterrence and is close to deciding to participate in the attack.

 

Iran’s leadership has reportedly signaled openness to a deal with the US, according to Israeli media. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi allegedly told Trump’s envoys Steve
Witkoff and Jared Kushner that the outreach had the “consent and blessing” of Mojtaba Khamenei.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slightly lower, reversing earlier overnight losses made after Iranian lawmakers rules out negotiations with President Trump and WSJ reports that some Gulf states
are taking steps to join the war. Fighting between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance continued unabated. US PMI data for March is due this morning, after numbers in France and Germany signaled corporate profits are already being squeezed by the war. In corporate
news, Japan’s SMFG is working on plans for a possible takeover of Jefferies, according to the Financial Times. The Korea Economic Daily reported that SK Hynix is said to be seeking to raise $10 billion from a potential listing in the US. Baker Hughes announced
it is collaborating with Google Cloud to develop AI-enabled power optimization and sustainability solutions for the global data center sector.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) gains 2.4% after the electronics component manufacturer said it has received a new volume order from one
of its major hyperscale customers for 800G single-mode data center transceivers. Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is up over 7% after the Financial Times reported that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is working on plans for a potential takeover of the bank.
JFrog (FROG) is up more than 3% after UBS upgraded the software firm to buy from neutral following recent stock weakness, with the analyst noting that there are no signs of a slowdown. Netgear (NTGR) gains 11% after the US Federal Communications Commission
ordered a ban on the import of new models of foreign-produced consumer wireless routers. CoreWeave shares gained ~2% after it was reinstated with a buy rating at BofA, while Bilibili shares fell 1.7%.

European gauges are mostly steady after erasing earlier losses following disappointing private-sector activity data. Stoxx 600 holds a small gain, with chemicals and
telecom sectors outperforming while defense shares lag.  With the war in the Middle East dragging on, European cyclicals are prone to keep underperforming defensive stocks, according to UBS strategists. They note non-cyclical growth themes including data center
growth are likely to persist. In individual stocks, Puig shares rise as much as 17% after Estée Lauder said the companies were discussing a deal that would create a cosmetics giant with about $20 billion in annual sales. Straumann shares gain as much as 5.6%,
the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after a sell-side meeting with CFO Isabelle Wege reassured analysts. SAP shares slip as much as 5% after JPMorgan downgraded the software maker to neutral from overweight on a view that margin expansion
will decelerate. Exail Technologies slides over 9% after one of the investors in the French company offloaded shares at a discount to Monday’s closing price. Bytes Technology shares slide as much as 16% to their lowest intraday level on record after the information
technology company said it expects 2027 full-year operating profit to be broadly flat. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX -0.4%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Chemicals +1.7%, Telecom +1.2%. Defense -1.5%, Industrial Goods -0.7%.

Shares in Asia rose, recovering some losses of the previous session, as US comments about discussions with Iran sparked fresh optimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 2.1%, ending a three-day rout. Advances in Hong Kong, Japanese, Indian and South Korean equity markets led gains in the region, while Malaysia fell.  Kospi index briefly erased an early gain of more than 4% before turning higher again. The technology
sector, which is closely tied to risk sentiment in the region, rose to support the broader market. Shares of Asian network equipment makers slip after the US Federal Communications Commission banned imports of new models of foreign-made consumer wireless routers,
citing security risks. Hang Seng Index +2.8%, Kospi +2.7%, Hang Seng Tech +2.5%, Topix +2.1%, Sensex +1.9%, Vietnam +1.5%, CSI 300 +1.3%, Thailand +0.9%, Philippines +0.6%, ASX 200 +0.15%.Taiwan -0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses as US trading begins, with 10-year yield +2bps around 4.37% and the curve roughly flat. US session includes S&P Global PMIs and 2-year
note auction. This week’s Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note sale; $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year follow on Wednesday and Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes four deals. Six names priced $7 billion of new debt on
Monday. 

 

METALS: 

Gold reversed earlier losses, which had put it on course for a record 10th straight daily decline, but remains just slightly in the red. Like broad financial markets,
gold has been whipsawed as traders a barrage of headlines around the war, with the metal sliding as much as 8.8% on Monday before paring much of the drop. Chinese banks are experiencing system failures due to surging volumes in gold investment products as
investors buy on dips, according to China Securities Journal. Spot gold -0.05%, Silver +1.4%, Copper futures -1%. 

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are rising again amid renewed supply concerns, after Iran leadership denied holding any talks with the United States to end the Gulf war — directly contradicting
President Trump, who said a deal could be reached soon. Brent futures climbed briefly above $104 a barrel, having fallen by as much as 15% on Monday after President Trump delayed a threat to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, claiming there
were talks with Tehran. Iran denied negotiations were taking place, while Israel kept up attacks. A Chinese-owned tanker transited Hormuz via an Iran-approved route. Meanwhile, Vitol said oil markets are singularly focused on the waterway’s reopening as up
to 10 million b/d may remain shut out of the market. If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still reach $150 a barrel,
⁠Macquarie said. That would exceed the all-time high of $147 set in 2008.  WTI +3.1%,
Brent +2.2%, US Nat Gas +1.1%, RBOB +3.5%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar regained some ground as investors remained skeptical of a quick resolution to the Middle East war, despite President Trump’s decision
to delay strikes on Iranian power stations and energy infrastructure. The expected inflationary impact from surging energy prices has led markets to scale back Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, though investors are still not pricing in any tightening
this year — unlike other major central banks.  Sterling eased after jumping nearly 1% on Monday. Euro slips after private-sector activity in the euro area rose at the slowest pace since last May. Japan’s core inflation rose 1.6% from a year earlier in February,
below the BOJ’s target for the first time since 2022. Yen is slightly lower. New Zealand dollar falls as central bank governor Anna Breman signaled policymakers won’t rush to raise interest rates in response to the Middle East conflict. Turkey’s central bank
is preparing an expanded toolkit to defend the lira from Iran war-related volatility that includes potentially tapping its vast gold reserves, according to sources. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD -0.55%, NZDUSD -0.45%, USDCHF
+0.1%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.6%.

 

 

Spot Bitcoin +0.5%, Spot Ethereum +0.3%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $278
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $100
    • Ecolab (ECL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $295
    • First Majestic (AG CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $35
    • JFrog (FROG) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $60
    • JinkoSolar (JKS) ADRs Raised to Buy at Daiwa; PT $28.50
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $400
    • Sutro Biopharma (STRO) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $28
      • Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $27
    • TransAlta (TA CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$22
  • Downgrades
    • Foran Mining (FOM CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$6.60
    • Strategic Education (STRA) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
    • Ultragenyx (RARE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $25
    • Xencor (XNCR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $13
  • Initiations
    • Alaska Air (ALK) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $50
    • Antero Resources (AR) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $56
    • APA Corp (APA) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $38
    • BKV (BKV) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $37
    • Chord Energy (CHRD) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $169
    • Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $26
    • CNX Resources (CNX) Rated New Sell at Truist Secs; PT $35
    • Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $125
    • Conoco (COP) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $124
    • CoreCivic (CXW) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $28
    • Covista Inc (CVSA) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $130
    • Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $57
    • Devon (DVN) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $63
    • Diamondback (FANG) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $222
    • Diversified Energy (DEC) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $22
    • Energy Transfer (ET) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $23
    • Enterprise Products (EPD) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $36
    • EOG Resources (EOG) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $146
    • EQT Corp (EQT) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $74
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $136
    • Generate Biomedicines (GENB) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $30
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $26
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $230
    • Immunic Inc (IMUX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $7
    • Jamieson Wellness (JWEL CN) Reinstated Outperform at CIBC; PT C$43
    • JetBlue (JBLU) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $4.50
    • KB Home (KBH) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $77
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $38
    • Kinetik (KNTK) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $53
    • LCI Industries (LCII) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $152
    • Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $14
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $33
    • Matador Resources (MTDR) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $60
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT $500
    • MPLX (MPLX) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $67
    • Occidental (OXY) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $65
    • Oneok (OKE) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $91
    • OneSpaWorld (OSW) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
    • Ovintiv (OVV) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $70
    • Permian Resources (PR) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $24
    • Plains All American (PAA) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $23
    • Plains GP (PAGP) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $23
    • Range Resources (RRC) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $48
    • Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Riley Exploration (REPX) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $47
    • SM Energy (SM) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $38
    • Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC) Rated New Market Perform at Citizens
    • Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $49
    • Solventum (SOLV) Rated New Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $60
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $279
    • Viper Energy (VNOM) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $54
    • Williams Cos (WMB) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $84

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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