Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Employment Change; 8:30ET Retail Sales; 9:05ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 9:10ET Fed’s
Barr speaks; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, ISM Employment, Business Inventories; 9:00pm ET Trump to address the nation on Iran

Highlights and News:  

• Trump envisions withdrawal from Iran within two to three weeks
• Kospi surges as much as 9.1%, Nikkei gains over 5%
• US LEAVING NATO ‘BEYOND RECONSIDERATION’ – TRUMP
• Anthropic Accidentally Releases Claude Code
• Ark ETFs are adding exposure to OpenAI, offering retail investors a rare pathway
  
• Tiger Woods said he’s stepping away from golf to seek treatment
• US FEB. RETAIL SALES RISE 0.6% M/M; EST. +0.5%

Global stocks surged as hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict drove the biggest rebound in Asian equities in over three years. Asian markets stand to benefit
the most if the US successfully defuses the war with Iran, as investors unwind an energy-driven risk premium that has weighed more heavily on the region. President Trump told reporters that the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks and indicated an
agreement with Tehran may be reached but wasn’t necessary for the war to end. US officials have not publicly specified who they are engaging with in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that he had received messages from the US Middle
East envoy but stressed that no formal negotiations were taking place. The rally shrugged off a Wall Street Journal report that the UAE could join the conflict and is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution to authorize military action to reopen the Strait
of Hormuz.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures extend Monday’s gains after Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in a few weeks and the US would withdraw once Tehran can no longer obtain nuclear weapons. Attacks
continued across the Middle East with Qatar claiming a cruise missile from Iran struck an oil tanker. Trump said he’s strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it didn’t join the war on Iran, telling the Telegraph that leaving the block was now
“beyond reconsideration.” Market focus will now shift to an “important update” on Iran that President Trump is scheduled to deliver tonight, as investors question how quickly oil can fall and how credible his assurances are. Yesterday’s sharp rally on Wall
Street is not receiving the ‘all clear’ that might have been expected after such a strong move. Traders at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan describe it as largely a short squeeze, driven more by the unwinding of extreme positioning than by any meaningful shift in
investor sentiment.  In corporate news, Nike gave a gloomy outlook for the year ahead and faces headwinds around the globe, including elevated inventories in Europe and the Middle East. Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine
No. 1 over a long-term deal for a giant energy complex in West Texas.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.5%

In pre-market trading, Li Auto ADRs (LI) rise 4% after the Chinese EV firm reported March vehicle deliveries that surpassed its own guidance and analyst estimates.
MSC Industrial (MSM) falls 6% after the distributor of metalworking products reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. NCino (NCNO) jumps 24% after the cloud-banking software company’s subscription
revenue forecast for 2027 beat the average analyst estimate. Nike (NKE) falls 10% after the retailer gave a surprisingly gloomy outlook for the year ahead. RH (RH) plunges 17% after the home furnishing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed
estimates. Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) slides 21% after the clinical-stage oncology company gave safety and efficacy data from an early-stage trial of its drug-candidate for prostate cancer that underwhelmed. Target Hospitality (TH) rises 24% after the provider
of modular housing announced secured a multi-year contract worth more than $550 million.

European gauges gapped higher on hopes a resolution of the war in Iran is near. The Stoxx 600 is on track for its biggest daily jump in a year with banks, miners and
travel & leisure shares leading gains, while the energy sector lags. Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East are reopening the case for risk, Morgan Stanley strategists say, noting 12% upside to their year-end MSCI Europe target. Athens Stock Exchange Index
rises as much as 4.3% following index provider MSCI’s decision to upgrade the Greek market to developed status. Stocks that underperformed most since the start of the conflict enjoyed the biggest gains. Jet-engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings and Siemens Energy
AG each rose as much as 10%, recouping a large part of last month’s decline. Stoxx 600 +2.4%, DAX +2.6%, CAC +2%, FTSE 100 +1.9%. Defense +4.8%, Banks +4.4%, Basic Resources +3.5%, Travel & Leisure +3.3%. Energy -1.2%. 

Shares in Asia jumped the most in nearly a year, tracking Wall Street’s rally on optimism that the war in Iran may end in the near future. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
gained 4.9%, with shares in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan leading the gains, driven by technology giants such as SK Hynix, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics. South Korea’s exports beat forecasts in March, surging at their fastest
pace in nearly four decades on an AI-driven chip boom. Chinese airline stocks rise on a broad rebound in risk appetite and a boost from a local media report that some carriers will start to raise flight fuel surcharges. Stocks linked to India’s capital markets
advanced after the Reserve Bank of India delayed the rollout of stricter lending rules. Kospi +8.4%, Nikkei 225 +5.2%, Taiwan +4.6%, ASX 200 +2.2%, Hang Seng Index +2%, Indonesia +1.9%, CSI 300 +1.7%, Vietnam +1.7%, Sensex +1.6%, Philippines +0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are slightly lower ahead of retail sales figures with the curve just slightly steeper. 10-year yield around 4.305%; 2-year yield around 3.78%. IG
dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names. Tuesday’s slate was light and is expected to remain muted over the rest of the holiday-shortened week.

METALS: 

Gold rose to its highest level in nearly two weeks, supported by a weaker dollar following President Trump’s statement that the war with Iran could wind down in weeks.
Trump said Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down and that he would provide an update on Iran in an address tonight at 9 pm EDT. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retained a bullish view on gold, keeping a year-end forecast
of $5,400 an ounce, citing continued purchases by central banks and a forecast of two more rate cuts in the US this year. Spot gold +1.3%, Silver -0.4%, Copper futures -0.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil reversed earlier gains after President Trump again signaled the potential end to the Iran war, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and more US
troops arrived in the region. Brent crude earlier slid toward $98 a barrel before recovering part of that loss to trade near $101. A third US aircraft carrier strike group is also heading to the Middle East and the market remains on edge about a possible deadly
ground invasion of Iran by American troops. The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates has urged the US and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force. On Tuesday Trump said he would leave it to other
nations to resolve issues with the strait. Analysts expect that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be slow to return to levels before the conflict even if a ceasefire were announced. WTI -2.9%, Brent -2.6%, US Nat Gas -1.6%, RBOB -2.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell versus all Group-of-10 peers before a busy session of economic data releases, with several fed officials due to speak throughout
the day. The yen moves higher on improving Tankan survey. The Tankan, one of the BOJ’s most closely watched indicators, illustrates that for now at least Japan’s corporate optimism remains solid, supporting the Bank of Japan’s policy stance of continuing to
raise interest rates. The euro gains as eurozone manufacturing PMI rose in March while the unemployment rate ticked up in February. Sterling rises for a second day as UK manufacturing PMI declined in March but still indicated modest expansion. US$ Index -0.55%,
GBPUSD +0.7%, EURUSD +0.4%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.75%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -1%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK -0.9%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.5%, Spot Ethereum +1.3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Asana (ASAN) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $7
• Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $55
• Disney (DIS) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $115
• Gerdau (GGBR4 BZ) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $4.60
• Magellan Aerospace (MAL CN) Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$28.50
• nCino (NCNO) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $22
• PJT Partners (PJT) Raised to Buy at Goldman
• Suncor (SU CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$104
• UnitedHealth (UNH) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $330
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $94
• Downgrades
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $41
• Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $41
• Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $41
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Leerink
• First Citizens (FCNCA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $2,200
• Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$14.50
• Nike (NKE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $52
• Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $52
• Phreesia (PHR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• PPG Industries (PPG) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $113
• Initiations
• Algonquin Power (AQN CN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT C$10
• Amcor (AMCR) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $50
• Americas Gold & Silver Corp (USA CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$10
• Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Arista Networks (ANET) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $160
• ATI Inc. (ATI) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $175
• Avery Dennison (AVY) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $200
• Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $161
• Ball (BALL) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $72
• Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Don Capital; PT $103
• Boeing (BA) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $250
• Booz Allen (BAH) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $85
• BWX Technologies (BWXT) Reinstated Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $200
• CACI (CACI) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $725
• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $27
• Carpenter Tech (CRS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $400
• Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT C$521.03
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Crown Holdings (CCK) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $124
• Datadog (DDOG) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Discovery Silver Corp (DSV CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• General Dynamics (GD) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $400
• General Electric Aerospace (GE) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Graphic Packaging (GPK) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $9.60
• Greenfire Resources (GFR) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• Heico (HEI) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $290
• Hexcel (HXL) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $95
• Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $240
• Huntington Ingalls (HII) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• International Paper (IP) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $38
• Leidos (LDOS) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $165
• LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $113
• Lockheed (LMT) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $650
• Marex Group (MRX) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Marten Transport (MRTN) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $18
• Microsoft (MSFT) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Mobileye (MBLY) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $9.30
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $800
• NTG Clarity Networks (NCI CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$2
• Packaging Corp (PKG) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $225
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Hold at Benchmark
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Pelthos Therapeutics (PTHS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $50
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $16.60
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $60
• RTX Corp (RTX) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $200
• Sanmina (SANM) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $135
• Sensient (SXT) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $115
• ServiceNow (NOW) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Silgan (SLGN) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $52
• Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
• Sonoco (SON) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $63
• StandardAero (SARO) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $32
• Textron (TXT) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $92
• TransDigm (TDG) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $1,200
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $35
• Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo
• WeRide (WRD) ADRs Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $11.40
• Woodward (WWD) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $440

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke