Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET ISM Services Index, ISM Services Prices Paid, ISM Services New Orders, ISM Services
Employment; 1:00ET Trump press conference

Highlights and News:  

• Trump issued an expletive-laden ultimatum on Sunday
• Trump Reiterates Threat to Iran’s Power Plants
• US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire – Axios
• OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output when Strait of Hormuz reopens
• Several Blasts Heard at Iran’s South Pars Petrochemical Facility: Fars
• India said it’s buying crude from Iran
• Iran is claiming the US “pilot rescue” may have been a cover to steal enriched uranium

Global stock markets are quiet and mixed with Europe and many parts of Asia closed for Easter Monday. Markets closed include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
China, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel (half day), Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand,
UK. President Trump warned Iran it would face ‘hell’ unless it reopens the Strait of Hormuz by his self-imposed deadline, though reports of a push for a ceasefire appeared to ease some market concerns. Trump’s threats to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure,
including power plants and bridges, unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens by Tuesday have traders worried about potential Iranian counterattacks on Gulf states. Investors gained some confidence after Axios reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are
discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for a permanent end to the war.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed in the first trading session since Friday’s payrolls report, as traders digest a weekend of conflicting geopolitical headlines and await incremental updates
from President Trump’s expected news conference at 1:00 EST. Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, told Axios that he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Trump’s aggressive rhetoric suggests
de-escalation won’t happen quickly, though he has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Tuesday. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz climbed to the highest level since the early days of the war as more countries secure safe-passage
agreements with Iran. The waterway saw 21 ships transit over the weekend, as the US, Iran, and regional mediators discuss terms for a potential ceasefire. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson thinks US stocks are bottoming out, recommends adding exposure
to cyclical and quality growth where earnings remain strong. In corporate news, Paramount is in talks to secure signed equity commitments of close to $24 billion from three sovereign-wealth funds to back its takeover of Warner Bros, according to the WSJ. 
  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.15%, DJI -0.15%

In pre-market trading, Boot Barn (BOOT) gains 2% as Jefferies raised its recommendation on the apparel company to buy from hold as recent selloff presents an attractive
re-entry point on the stock. Carvana (CVNA) falls 2% as BofA Global Research downgrades the online used-car retailer to neutral from buy. Rocket Cos. (RKT) advances 1.6% after Barclays raised their recommendations to overweight from equal-weight following
recent shares decline. Netflix (NFLX) rises 1.7% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the streaming-video company to buy from neutral. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) is up 4% after Jefferies raised the recommendation on the military contractor to
buy from hold. Twilio (TWLO) rises 3.4% as Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold citing greater conviction in the role the firm will play in the voice AI tech stack. Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global added 4%, and Robinhood Markets climbed 2.6% as the hopes
of a peace deal sparked a rebound in cryptocurrency prices. Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO): Neurocrine agreed to buy Soleno for $2.9 billion, which develops treatments of rare diseases. Soleno shares jumped more than 30% premarket
while Neurocrine stock slipped 2%.

European markets are closed

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, with several key regional markets closed for holidays, as investors pinned their hopes on de-escalation in the Middle East conflict
after a report said Iranian mediators made a last-minute push for a 45-day ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with Korean chip stocks Samsung and SK Hynix leading the advance. Traders remained on edge after President Trump issued fresh threats
against Iran over the weekend, even as reports suggested that negotiations are still active.  Equity markets were shut in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and Thailand.  Kospi +1.4%, Sensex +1.1%, Nikkei 225 +0.5%, Singapore +0.5%. Topix ~flat, Indonesia -0.5%,
Vietnam -0.5%, Philippines -0.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are higher on the heels of the nonfarm payrolls report for March coming in stronger than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday
that the US economy added 178,000 jobs in March, well above the consensus of 59,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, but that was largely due to a big drop in labor force participation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury added ~4 basis point
to 4.365%. The 2-year Treasury also gained 4 basis point at 3.865%, while the 30-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 4.925%. 5s30s curve is lower by ~3bps; 2s10s +1bp. Investors await a spate of key economic data out of the US this week, including the
February personal consumption expenditures index. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due Thursday will offer an early read on whether the oil shock is feeding through to prices in the world’s largest economy.

METALS: 

Gold inched higher as traders weighed a report on a diplomatic push for a ceasefire in the Iran war. Spot gold reversed earlier losses to trade near $4,680 an ounce.
The US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting, Axios reported, citing sources with knowledge of the talks. A spike in US gasoline prices will be on full display when key US inflation
data is released this week. Economists are forecasting a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March, which would be the sharpest one-month advance since 2022. Spot gold +0.05%, Silver +0.4%, Copper futures +1.7%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices reversed early gains to trade lower as traders weighed a reported push for a ceasefire in the Middle East against a fresh ultimatum from President Trump
for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent trades below $109 a barrel, after earlier rising close to $112. The US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing terms of a potential 45-day pause that could lead to a permanent end to the war, Axios reported.
Over the weekend — ahead of the Axios report — Trump threatened in a series of social-media posts to bring “Hell” to Iran with strikes on power plants and other infrastructure if Hormuz was not reopened. Tehran rejected the demands, and the route remains closed
to all but a small number of vessels. Iran announced on Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its curbs in the strait, potentially allowing a pick-up in oil cargoes. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for
May, though the modest hike will largely be symbolic, as key members cannot raise production due to the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for May sales to a record premium of $19.50
over Asian benchmarks, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to curb oil flows. WTI -1.2%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas +1%, RBOB -0.5%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is lower versus all Group-of-10 peers following an Axios report saying talks are being held for a potential ceasefire in the Iran
war. DTCC data show volumes run at 50% of recent averages as many European markets are shut for holidays Monday, as were Australia, New Zealand, mainland China and Hong Kong. The Indian rupee edged up, extending its biggest rally in 12 years after the central
bank doubled down on curbing speculation against the local currency. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -0.8%, USDNOK -0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin +3%, Spot Ethereum +4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Amkor Technology (AMKR) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $60
• Boot Barn (BOOT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $195
• Decisive Dividend (DE CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital
• Extendicare (EXE CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$32
• First American (FAF) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $72
• Kratos (KTOS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $85
• Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $120
• Northern Trust (NTRS) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $151
• Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $168
• Olin (OLN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $19
• Twilio (TWLO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $160
• Tyson (TSN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $75
• Waters (WAT) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $350
• Downgrades
• Carvana (CVNA) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $360
• Clear Channel (CCO) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $2.43
• Dow (DOW) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$15
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $350
• Lipocine (LPCN) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $68
• Nike (NKE) Cut to Market Perform at CICC; PT $58
• Power Integrations (POWI) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $46
• Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Cut to Sell at Melius; PT $70
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $119
• Initiations
• Atlas Critical Minerals (ATCX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright
• AtlasClear (ATCH) Rated New Buy at Litchfield Hills; PT $1
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Bayhorse Silver (BHS CN) Reinstated Buy at Fundamental Research
• MDA Space (MDA CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$57
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$47.39
• PayPay (PAYP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $31
• ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $25
• ADRs Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $26
• ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
• ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $28
• ADRs Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $17.25
• ADRs Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $23
• Satellos Bioscience Inc (MSCL CN) Rated New Outperform at Leerink
• Sezzle (SEZL) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $85
• ThredUp (TDUP) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $5
• Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $50
• Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$18
• Versigent (VGNT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
• WD-40 (WDFC) Rated New Outperform at William Blair

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke