Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  1:00ET $39 billion 10-year notes reopening; 1:05ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 2:00ET FOMC Meeting
Minutes; 3:30ET NATO chief Mark Rutte meets Trump today

Highlights and News:  

• Trump agrees to suspend ‘bombing and attack of Iran’ for two weeks
• The ceasefire is described as fragile and conditional, Hormuz still quiet
• Iran’s lead negotiator in US talks is not yet finalized: Tasnim
  
• TRUMP SETS 50% TARIFF ON COUNTRIES SUPPLYING ARMS TO IRAN
• Israel also agreed to the pause in fighting, but said it didn’t include Lebanon
  
• Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced
  
• What Washington wanted, what Tehran demanded –
  Iran Int
• Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates deal with several attacks coming from Iran
• A winter storm warning has been issued for Hawaii due to potential ice and snow

Global stocks surged and crude oil prices plunged after the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement that will allow ships to resume passage
through the Strait of Hormuz, easing severe supply disruptions that had threatened to cripple global energy markets and stoke inflation. The details are still incomplete, but the positions Tehran and Washington have publicly tied to the ceasefire suggest not
a shared settlement so much as a temporary halt layered over unresolved hostilities. Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced. The ceasefire is described as fragile and conditional. Neither side clearly defined the
exact start time, and elements within Iran’s military appear to have continued firing even after the deal was announced. Some analysts suggest these were “leftover” launches already in progress or a show of defiance. Iran’s Press TV posted that ‘In violation
of the ceasefire, US-Israeli forces targeted the Lavan Oil Refinery on Lavan Island.’ Trump said “We are talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to. According to President Trump, any nation supplying weapons
to Iran will be immediately tariffed at 50%, saying that there will be no exemptions.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures jumped as a wave of optimism swept through global markets. Iran says it has agreed to two weeks of safe passage in coordination with its armed forces and within “technical
limitations”, while President Donald Trump announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING”. Trump said in a separate social-media post that the US would be “helping with the traffic build up” and “hangin’ around” to ensure smooth flows, options unlikely
to appeal to Tehran. The Trump administration warned that cyberattackers with links to Iran are targeting critical US infrastructure including drinking water systems and the energy sector. In corporate news, Levi Strauss raised its forecast for the year after
reporting better-than-expected results. Super Micro Computer launched an internal probe to investigate circumstances surrounding server sales to China. Chip, memory and storage stocks are rising on improving risk sentiment — if the Strait of Hormuz reopens
it would also improve the supply of helium, which is used in the production of semiconductors. Among gainers: Micron +9.6%, Western Digital +8.3%, Sandisk +9.2%, Seagate +8.8%.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +3.3%, Russell 2000 +3.3%, DJI +2.4%

In pre-market trading, shares in airlines and cruise operators are rising on the prospect of fuel prices stabilizing. United Airlines +7.7%, Delta Air Lines +7.8%,
American Airlines +7.0%, JetBlue +7.0%, Carnival +9.9%, Norwegian Cruise Line +8.4%, Royal Caribbean +7.8%. Optical stocks are also gaining: Applied Optoelectronics +9.7%, Coherent +8.6%, Lumentum +7.1%. Among gainers in mining: Newmont +5.8%, Agnico Eagle
Mines +5.0%, Barrick +5.4%, Pan American Silver +6.4%, Vizsla Silver +7.4%, Endeavour Silver +8.2%, Wheaton Precious Metals +6.1%. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) climbs 8% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. Delta Air (DAL)
shares extended their climb to as much as 14% after the carrier posted adjusted profit and revenue for the first quarter that topped estimates. Levi Strauss (LEVI) gains 9% after the apparel company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue forecasts
for the full year.

The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of
Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack.
We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

European gauges are surging with the Stoxx 600 over 4% alongside a 16% decline in Brent crude as markets cheered news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the
US and Iran — despite the truce being described as fragile. Sector outperformance in travel, technology and banks while energy stocks post material losses. Airline stocks, which have been pummeled by concerns of skyrocketing energy prices, lead gains in Europe.
EasyJet Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG both jumped more than 10%. European oil stocks plunge on an otherwise broadly risk-on day. Gamma Communications shares soar as much as 15% after the telecom services company said it’s in preliminary talks with a number
of potential bidders. Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 16% after the German firm’s preliminary first-quarter figures reassured analysts. Stoxx 600 +4.3%, DAX +5.3%, CAC +4.9%, FTSE 100 +3%. Travel & Leisure +8.4%, Luxury +8%, Banks +7.4%, Technology
+7.2%. Energy -3.5%.

Shares in Asia rose for a fourth straight day, surging to a one-month high as oil prices tumbled, easing fears of supply disruptions and inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index gained 4.9%, led by heavyweight chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 7%, leading gains in the region. Shares advanced more than 3% in mainland China, Hong Kong and India.
The Reserve Bank of India left key interest rates unchanged, maintaining a cautious outlook as it assesses the economic impact of surging oil prices and vows to limit excessive currency swings. Chinese media stocks gain as a little‑known
AI-driven video model overtakes Seedance 2.0 on a global benchmark, fueling bets of a fresh AI video breakthrough for the media sector. Hong Kong developers’ shares jump after a local media report saying new home sales hit an 11-year Easter holiday high. Kospi
+6.9%, Nikkei 225 +5.4%, Vietnam +4.7%, Taiwan +4.6%, Indonesia +4.4%, Sensex +3.9%, CSI 300 +3.5%, Hang Seng Index +3.1%, ASX 200 +2.6%, Thailand +1.4%, Singapore +0.8%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are lower and curve is bull-steepening, with traders now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year.  Global
bond yields are materially lower with German and UK 2-year borrowing costs down 22bps and 25bps respectively as traders scale back ECB and BOE hike bets. US yields are lower by 3bp-6bp across a steeper curve as long-end tenors lag front-end and belly; 10-year
is lower by more than 6bp near 4.24%. 2s10s -0.5bp, 5s30s +3bps. US session includes 10-year note reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue.

METALS: 

Precious metals are gaining, with spot gold up as much as 3.2% to above $4,850 an ounce. The ceasefire agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a plunge
in oil prices and a fall in the dollar, supporting gold. Gold has fallen roughly 9% since the war began at the end of February. A moderate recovery in recent days has been supported by ceasefire hopes and growing expectations that a slowdown in global economic
growth will offset bets on stable or higher interest rates. Spot gold +1.4%, Silver +4.7%, Copper futures +3.6%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil and gas prices plummeted after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Brent fell over 16% around $91.50 a barrel, while WTI slumped the most in almost
six years and was last near $93. European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. The plunge in European gas comes after investors had amassed near-record net-bullish positions. Futures tied to Abu
Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude dropped as much as 19%, the most since the contract’s launch in 2021. The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty, and shipowners need to understand all potential conditions
attached, according to a spokesperson for A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S. The first two ships to attempt an exit from the Persian Gulf since the announcement appear to be sailing as a pair toward Iran’s Larak and Qeshm islands, tracking data show. Saudi Arabia’s key
East-West oil pipeline, which transports crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export, has been hit by an attack. WTI -17.8%, Brent -15.8%, US Nat Gas -3.2%, RBOB -10.7%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is lower versus all major peers, with the US$ Index hitting a four-week low. The dollar has now ceded more than half of its gains
since the war started, and money markets now see a chance the Federal Reserve will deliver a cut by year-end. The euro rallied by ~1% to its highest level in more than a month. The kiwi is one of the better G-10 performers following the hawkish hold from the
RBNZ. China’s yuan climbed to a three-year high versus the dollar following the ceasefire news. Yen is strong as Japan’s real wages rose the most since 2021, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as soon as this month. US$ Index -1.2%,
GBPUSD +1.3%, EURUSD +1%, USDJPY -1%, AUDUSD +1.2%, NZDUSD +1.9%, USDCHF -1.2%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -2.7%, USDNOK -1%.

Spot Bitcoin +3.7%, Spot Ethereum +6.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Clean Harbors (CLH) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $346
• Deere (DE) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $550
• Freshpet (FRPT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $80
• GATX (GATX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $211
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $380
• Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $21
• PJT Partners (PJT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $166
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Buy at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $254
• Viasat (VSAT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $49
• Downgrades
• Airo Group (AIRO) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Broadcom (AVGO) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $140
• Diamondback (FANG) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $200
• Doximity (DOCS) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
• First Citizens (FCNCA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $2,154
• General Dynamics (GD) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $387
• Lazard (LAZ) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $47
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
• Matador Resources (MTDR) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
• Permian Resources (PR) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
• SM Energy (SM) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $33
• Soleno (SLNO) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Stella-Jones (SJ CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$95
• Talos Energy (TALO) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $16
• Ultrapar (UGPA3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $6
• Verizon (VZ) Cut to Hold at DBS Bank; PT $52
• Vital Farms (VITL) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
• Initiations
• Compass Group (CPG LN) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $42
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Outperform at Telsey; PT $66
• Elevance (ELV) Reinstated Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $345
• Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTR CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• Inhibrx Biosciences (INBX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $150
• Kyivstar Group (KYIV) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $12.50
• Linde (LIN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Luca Mining Corp (LUCA CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
• MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $37
• TAT Technologies (TATT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $61
• Tenaz Energy Corp (TNZ CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$80
• UMB Financial (UMBF) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $135
• Uxin (UXIN) ADRs Rated New Buy at China Merchants
• WillScot Holdings (WSC) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $19

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke