Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Price Index, Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims,
GDP, Personal Consumption; 10:00ET Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Trade; 1:00ET 30-Year Bond Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Israeli strikes pummel Lebanon, killing 250 in deadliest day of war
• Tehran warned there may be mines in the Strait of Hormuz
  
• Iran/US talks are planned for Saturday in Pakistan
• Iran’s nuclear agency said protecting Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is “necessary” for any ceasefire talks
  with the US
• Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers are waiting near the Strait of Hormuz with a third on its way
• US Asks Allies for Quick Plans to Secure Hormuz
  
• Russia is offering sanctioned LNG to South Asia at a 40% discount to spot prices

Global stocks slipped as cracks quickly began to appear in the fragile Gulf truce, lifting oil prices back up toward $100 a barrel on reports of ongoing issues in
Lebanon and partial restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. There were few signs that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened in any meaningful way, as Iran continued to exert tight control over the critical oil chokepoint and demanded tolls for safe passage. The
shaky US-Iran ceasefire faltered under pressure from Israel’s fierce strikes on Beirut, Tehran’s persistent control over the Strait of Hormuz, and unresolved disagreements on key issues. Israel launched its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the conflict with
Hezbollah erupted last month, killing more than 250 people on Wednesday, as the Iran-aligned group resumed rocket attacks on northern Israel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a ceasefire in Lebanon was an essential condition of his country’s agreement
with the US. US and Iran representatives are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday for talks to address their differences.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slipping after yesterday’s big rally as the ceasefire optimism in markets looks overdone. Israel’s intense bombardment of Beirut and Iran’s continued control of
the Strait of Hormuz are major points of contention. Trump said in a social media post that US military personnel and weaponry would remain in place around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” If Iran doesn’t comply,
‘the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he said. Much of Wednesday’s move was driven by short-covering and a return to normal positioning: according to Goldman’s trading desk, hedge funds rushed to close
out bets against US stocks at a pace not seen since March 2020. In corporate news, the WSJ reported that Disney is preparing to make sizable layoffs in one of the first significant moves under its new CEO. Meta shares are up +2% in premarket trading, with
analysts generally positive on the AI model it showed on Wednesday. CoreWeave and Meta announced an expanded long-term agreement of around $21 billion to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %

In pre-market trading, Applied Digital (APLD) falls 1% after the data center operator’s third-quarter gross margins missed the average analyst estimate. CoreWeave (CRWV)
rises 6% after the cloud-computing provider reported an expanded long-term agreement with Meta to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for ~$21 billion. Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises +4% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight, citing
demand for optical products. Instacart (CART) climbs 2% as Raymond James upgrades to outperform, calling the grocery segment an under-penetrated e-commerce market. Simply Good Foods (SMPL) falls 16% after the packaged-food firm forecast year net sales will
be down as much as 10%. STAAR Surgical (STAA) rises 23% after the health-care supplies firm said it expects net sales for the first quarter to exceed $90 million, up from $42.6 million in the year ago period. Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares rise 11% after the
retail-focused real estate investment trust company entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $19 per share.

All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution
and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,”
bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime, our great Military
is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!

European gauges slide as investors grow concerned that a ceasefire in the Middle East may not last. Many of yesterday’s laggards in the oil sector are today’s biggest
gainers, including Var Energi, Equinor, BP and TotalEnergies. ITM Power shares climb as much as 17% after the UK government pledged to invest around £87 million in the clean energy company. Vallourec rises over 6% after announcing a five-year supply agreement
with Fervo Energy worth up to $800 million. France’s Alstom fell as much as 8.2% the train maker flagged currency headwinds in an earnings preview. Grieg Seafood falls as much as 7.9% after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company’s preliminary first-quarter
earnings disappointed. European stocks’ 12-month forward earnings estimates face downside risks as global growth slows, Bank of America strategists say, citing concern that oil-driven inflation will squeeze real purchasing power and put pressure on demand.
German industrial production unexpectedly declined in February, indicating that Europe’s largest economy was already weak and on track for another quarter of contraction even before the Iran war started. Stoxx 600 -0.5%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.3%.
Personal Goods -1.8%, Autos -1.5%, Technology -1.5%. Energy +1.6%, Chemicals +0.8%.

Shares in Asia retreated, snapping a four-day rally, as oil prices rose again. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics
and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most national benchmarks in the region traded lower, with the Kospi being the biggest loser. Asian software stocks decline after Meta unveiled a new artificial intelligence model and Anthropic launched Claude tools for building
agents. Morgan Stanley cuts the price target of some Chinese property developers as renewed weakening of home prices weighs on sentiment. China is considering financial relief and other measures for its struggling state-run airlines as the Iran war sends fuel
costs soaring, in what could be the industry’s biggest lifeline since the Covid pandemic. Kospi -1.6%, Sensex -1.2%, Vietnam -1.1%, Topix -0.9%, CSI 300 -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%, Singapore -0.4%. ASX 200 +0.2%, Thailand +0.3%, Indonesia +0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve after trading in tight ranges during Asia session and London morning. 10-year yield is roughly flat around 4.3%. US
session includes PCE price gauges for February, several other US economic indicators and 30-year bond auction. Fed policymakers will get the latest reading of their preferred inflation indicator this morning, core PCE, ahead of CPI data on Friday.

METALS: 

Gold inched higher for a third day as traders weighed the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war. Spot gold traded near $4,740 an ounce, extending a
1.5% gain over the previous two sessions. The White House said the US would hold direct talks with Iran, while Tehran cast Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a violation of the truce. Attacks declined across Arab states in the Persian Gulf, but traffic through
the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted by Iran. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +0.2%, Copper futures -1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil recovered after its biggest one-day drop since April 2020, as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threatened to derail
the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed scant evidence of a meaningful reopening, with Iran maintaining strong control over the vital waterway and requiring toll payments for safe transit. Brent crude
jumped back above $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has designated alternative “safe routes” through the Strait of Hormuz due to the possible presence of naval mines in parts of the
waterway, according to state affiliated news agency SNN. The US has asked European allies for rapid plans to help secure Hormuz, while two Chinese oil tankers are poised to cross the strait in a crucial test of the truce. Brent crude will average more than
$100 a barrel through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month, Goldman warned. WTI +4.8%, Brent +3.4%, US Nat Gas -0.1%, RBOB +1.6%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged lower as traders stayed focused on whether the US-Iran ceasefire would hold. Traders also await a slew of US data including
personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Japan’s consumer confidence declined in March for the first time in three months, a government survey showed, pointing to potential economic damage from the Middle East war and complicating
the BOJ’s rate-hike path. The yen is slightly lower and showed little reaction to the data. A former executive director at the Bank of Japan said the BOJ is likely to increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation.
New Zealand Dollar firms after RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said the central bank will “act decisively” to hike rates if medium-term inflation starts picking up. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF
-0.1%, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK -0.15%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.2%, Spot Ethereum -1.3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alcoa (AA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $80
• Capital One (COF) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $213
• Carter’s (CRI) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $38
• Datadog (DDOG) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $175
• Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• FLEX LNG (FLNG) Raised to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $32.60
• HealthEquity (HQY) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $105
• Instacart (CART) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $50
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Nexa (NEXA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11
• Staar Surgical (STAA) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $27
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $250
• United Community Banks (UCB) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $40
• Downgrades
• AES Corp (AES) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $15
• Assertio Holdings (ASRT) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $18
• Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $10
• Bullish (BLSH) Cut to Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $39
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Cut to Sell at Compass Point; PT $77
• Conagra (CAG) Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas
• Empire Co (EMP/A CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$52
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Hain Celestial (HAIN) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Hormel (HRL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $23
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $2.25
• Loblaw (L CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$70
• Metro Inc. (MRU CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$103
• Shore Bancshares (SHBI) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $20
• Telus (T CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$17.50
• Tradeweb (TW) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $129
• Tronox (TROX) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $9
• Trustmark (TRMK) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $45
• Zscaler (ZS) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Initiations
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Ameren (AEE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $131
• AppLovin (APP) Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $710
• Aritzia (ATZ CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$143
• ATI Inc. (ATI) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $100
• Brookdale (BKD) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $18
• Burlington Stores (BURL) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Caterpillar (CAT) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Cognizant (CTSH) Rated New Neutral at Wedbush
• Didi Global (DIDIY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $7.79
• Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $211
• Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $1,173
• Evergy (EVRG) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $99
• Expand Energy (EXE) Rated New Sector Outperform at Peters & Co
• Globant (GLOB) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush
• Hovnanian (HOV) Reinstated Market Underperform at Citizens; PT $74
• Lam Research (LRCX) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Luca Mining Corp (LUCA CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $129
• Novagold Resources (NG CN) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• OneSpaWorld (OSW) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• REalloys (ALOY) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $35
• Ring Energy (REI) Rated New Buy at Singular Research; PT $2.70
• Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Seagate (STX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• SharonAI (SHAZ) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $40
• Unitil (UTL) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $57
• Whitefiber (WYFI) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $13

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke