Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 12:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Waller speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump says deal with Iran ‘looking very good’ amid ceasefire
• WTI OIL DOWN OVER 5% ON REPORT US MULLS UNFREEZING IRAN FUNDS
• US CONSIDERS $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL WITH IRAN: AXIOS
• Britain, France to chair meeting with around 40 countries today on Strait of Hormuz role
• European Equities Still Vulnerable After Goldilocks Rally: BofA
• JPMorgan, UBS see little stock upside left in Europe this year
  
• S&P 500 hasn’t rallied on a Friday in nearly two months
  

Global stocks held near record highs and are set for their third straight week of gains, while oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel ahead of a crucial weekend that
could pave the way for a near-term resolution of the Iran war. President Trump claimed — without offering evidence — that Tehran had agreed to longstanding demands it had previously resisted, including the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that an
agreement could be announced “fairly soon.” Tehran has yet to publicly confirm the reported concessions. Some Gulf Arab and European leaders said that reaching a US-Iran peace agreement could take around six months and urged the warring sides to extend the
ceasefire for that duration. The UK and France will host a summit today of about 40 countries to discuss a naval force to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI’s world share index hit a record high on Thursday and has risen 8.5% so far
in April. CTAs have snapped up more than $86 billion in global equities over the past five sessions, one of its five biggest buying sprees on record, according to Goldman Sachs’ Brian Garrett.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are pushing higher as speculation grows that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is getting closer. A Pakistani mediator said there was progress in backdoor
diplomacy and the upcoming meeting between the two sides could result in the signing of a memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive deal within 60 days. The US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element
under discussion being that the US would release $20B in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched Uranium, according to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %+0.5, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.7%

In pre-market trading, Alcoa (AA) slips 2% after the aluminum company said first-quarter earnings were hurt by higher costs and operational disruptions. Ally Financial
(ALLY) rises 3% after reporting earnings that beat estimates, fueled by consumers purchasing more cars. Autoliv (ALV) gains 9% after the company saw better-than-expected sales in the first quarter. Knight-Swift (KNX) slips 1% after the transportation and logistics
services provider reported preliminary adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed. Netflix (NFLX) tumbles 10% after the streaming company gave a forecast for the second quarter that fell short of analysts’ expectations, underwhelming Wall
Street just months after it lost out on a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. NiSource Inc. (NI) gains 2% after the company announced a new long‑term
energy agreement with a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. to support the development and operation of a large‑scale
data center in northern Indiana. Onto Innovation (ONTO) rises 5% as Stifel upgrades to buy, citing the semiconductor manufacturing company’s solid preliminary revenue.

European gauges are mixed but still headed for a fourth weekly gain. Strategists at JPMorgan and UBS see little upside left for Europe this year, expecting earnings
downgrades and geopolitics to cap gains. BofA sees European equities as vulnerable even after the goldilocks rally. European equity funds also suffered their largest weekly outflows since Nov. 2024, according to Bank of America. Among individual names, Alstom
SA plunged over 30% in Paris after the manufacturer withdrew financial guidance for this fiscal year. Delivery Hero SE gains over 5% after Uber Technologies increased its stake. Soitec SA, a French semiconductor materials maker, rallied 12%. The stock has
surged to the top of Europe’s 2026 equity rankings with a more than 300% rally this year. It’s benefiting from a frenzy in the fast-growing field of photonics, which uses light to transmit data. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.3%.  Luxury
+1.7%, Technology +1.5%, Media +1.3%, Financial Services +0.9%. Utilities -1.6%, Energy -1.3%, Basic Resources -1.3%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower ahead of the weekend as investors await progress in talks to extend the US-Iran ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with
TSMC and Mitsubishi UFJ among the biggest drags on the gauge. Enthusiasm for technology stocks waned, with chipmaking giant TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares leading declines in part due to investor unease over its heavy reliance on a small number of hyperscaler
customers. Shares of major Chinese drug contract manufacturers declined on signs that US regulators may loosen restrictions to allow certain peptides to be made by compounding pharmacies. Chinese optical stocks advanced after Zhongji Innolight posted an earnings
beat and an upbeat assessment of the industry by Goldman Sachs. Nikkei 225 -1.75%, Philippines -1.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Taiwan -0.9%, Kospi -0.5%, Thailand -0.5%, Singapore -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Vietnam -0.15%, ASX 200 -0.1%. Indonesia +0.2%, Sensex +0.65%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries drift higher with yields 1bp to 3bps lower across the curve. 10-year yield slips 3bps to around 4.29%: 2s10s – 1bp, 5s30s +1bp. US session focus includes
a handful of speakers, such as Waller on the economic outlook (2pm New York) ahead of Saturday’s start to the communications blackout period. Treasury auctions next week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday.

METALS: 

Gold edges higher in choppy trading, on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest
rates. Traders are waiting to see whether a ceasefire between the US and Iran will be renewed, and if Washington and Tehran are willing to begin another round of talks to end the war. Industrial metals jumped to a record high on the London Metal Exchange,
driven by gains in aluminum. The LME Index, which tracks six major metals, has rallied by almost 12% over the past four weeks and was at an all-time peak at the close of trading. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver +1.7%, Copper futures -0.3%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fell as expectations of further US-Iran talks this weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel boosted investor hopes that the Middle East
war may be nearing resolution. President Trump said a two-week ceasefire, which ends next week, could be extended, although he did not believe that ‌would be necessary as Tehran wanted a deal. Trump claimed concessions by Iran will pave the way for a deal
to end the war. A Pakistan-flagged tanker that entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend has become the first vessel to exit the Strait of Hormuz with a crude cargo since the US blockade began on Monday, underscoring just how limited traffic through the vital
chokepoint remains. Brent futures retreated near $96 a barrel, paring this week’s gain to less than 2%. WTI is near $87.00. Given the damage to infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that
it could take up to two years to recover a significant share of oil and gas production that has been disrupted.  WTI -3.9%, Brent -3.4%, US Nat Gas +1.7%, RBOB -1.9%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches lower and headed for its third straight weekly decline. Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo say the dollar’s war-fueled safe-haven
rally appears to be ending, with the fragile US-Iran ceasefire prompting investors to move into riskier assets. The banks argue it’s time to bet against the dollar, and global investors appear to be doing exactly that. According to State Street, dollar hedging
ratios have risen to a two-year high. The euro has erased its post-war spot losses this week as options sentiment improved and flow data show traders have turned bullish again. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.03%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY -0.02%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD
-0.02%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.25%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.6%, Spot Ethereum +0.3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Baytex Energy (BTE CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Peters & Co; PT C$8
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $57
• Chevron (CVX) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas
• Eni (ENI IM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $64.30
• Exxon (XOM) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $165
• Lufax (LU) ADRs Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $2
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $350
• Postal Realty (PSTL) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $23
• Quaker Houghton (KWR) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• STMicro (STMPA FP) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Downgrades
• Agree Realty (ADC) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $86
• Albemarle (ALB) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $210
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $41
• Camtek/Israel (CAMT) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $185
• Clorox (CLX) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $99
• Exelon (EXC) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $48
• Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $49
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $49
• First Capital REIT (FCR-U CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$24.40
• Floor & Decor (FND) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $45
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Sell at UBS; PT $8
• Global Net Lease (GNL) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $10
• Newmont Corp (NEM) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT $130
• NXP Semi (NXPI) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities
• Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $101
• Soleno (SLNO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $53
• Initiations
• Almonty Industries (AII CN) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT C$34.26
• Amneal Pharma (AMRX) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $19
• Atrium Mortgage Investment (AI CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord
• Boeing (BA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT $222
• Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $40
• Critical Metals (CRML) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $20
• Definium Therapeutics In (DFTX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $30
• FirstEnergy (FE) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $56
• Four Corners Property (FCPT) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $27
• FrontView REIT (FVR) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $20
• Golub Capital (GBDC) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $15
• H2O America (HTO) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $64
• Immunic Inc (IMUX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $2.50
• Netstreit (NTST) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $24
• Northwest Natural (NWN) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $58
• Orezone Gold (ORE CN) Reinstated Outperform at National Bank; PT C$3.75
• RB Global (RBA CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT C$131.55
• Repligen (RGEN) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $160
• SharonAI (SHAZ) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $50
• Spire (SR) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $101
• W&T Offshore (WTI) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Woodward (WWD) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $450

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke