Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:30ET Dallas Fed Manf. Activity; 11:30ET $69 billion 2-year note auction; 1:00ET $70
billion 5-year note auction

Highlights and News:  

• Iran gave US a proposal for reopening the Strait Of Hormuz and ending the war, Axios reports
• Trump said Iran could telephone if it wants to negotiate
• Araghchi Says Reviewed Conditions for Iran–US Talks to Continue
• Iran and Oman have quietly reached agreements over the Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi Says
• Consumer sentiment in the US officially hits its lowest level since data collection began in 1978
• Hezbollah Chief Says Group Will Not Relinquish Weapons, Rejects Israel-Lebanon Direct Talks
• JPMorgan Sees Case for Adding Stocks on Market Weakness
• X is set to launch its X Money banking and payments platform this month
• King Charles III starts state visit to US (through Thursday)

Global stocks held steady at the start of a busy week packed with major tech earnings reports and key central bank decisions, including the Fed, ECB, BoE and BOJ.
Risk sentiment improved across the board on a report that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a ‌later
⁠stage. Peace talks between the US and Iran stalled again after President Trump canceled
a planned trip by his top envoys to Islamabad in Pakistan, saying that Iran had “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he reviewed “what has taken place and of the conditions under which Iran–US negotiations can continue”
during his visit to Pakistan. Iran’s President Pezeshkian said his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” Trump said Iran could telephone if it wants to negotiate. As of Sunday morning, observable traffic leaving the Persian Gulf
through Hormuz was down to a small coastal cargo ship, vessel-tracking data showed. American forces intercepted the sanctioned M/V Sevan in the Arabian Sea on Saturday, while at least two others were boarded in Asia. Ships observed leaving the Persian Gulf
since Saturday morning were limited to three small oil tankers, a small LPG tanker, two bulk carriers and two small coastal cargo ships. Most of the ships are now anchored off Oman.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures held near record highs as optimism persisted that a US-Iran deal could soon restore Middle East oil flows, while traders braced for major megacap tech earnings this
week including MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN on Wednesday. Investors will focus heavily on AI spending, cloud growth, advertising trends, and forward guidance. The Federal Reserve will also deliver its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday. JPMorgan Chase strategists
recommend using any equity market weakness to add to positions, as military, political, and economic constraints make a prolonged escalation unlikely despite ongoing geopolitical headline risks. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says any market pullbacks are
likely to be shallow, as passive investors remain under-risked — advising against waiting for much better entry points. Friday saw new records for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 although leadership is narrow, as the S&P equal weight index closed negative on the
week. In corporate news, Elon Musk says he’s nearing his goal of turning X into an “everything app” with a new financial services tool called X Money, which is expected to launch for the public this month.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) falls 3% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that missed. GE Vernova (GEV) is down 1.6% after BNP Paribas
downgraded the power equipment company to neutral. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) rises 1.6% after saying its gene-editing treatment for a rare swelling disorder met its goal in a late-stage trial. Organon & Co. (OGN) gains 16% as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Ltd. has lined up a short-term loan to help finance its $12 billion acquisition of the New York-listed healthcare company. Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) climbs 15% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial of lonvo-z in hereditary
angioedema. Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 13% after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said industry checks suggest OpenAI is working with the chipmaker and Taiwan’s MediaTek to develop smartphone processors. VeraDermics (MANE) climbs 15% after saying
its oral extended-release minoxidil formulation VDPHL01 met all primary and key secondary endpoints. Verizon (VZ) gains 3% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. XOMA Royalty Corp. (XOMA) shares are halted after
Ligand Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy the company for $39 per share of common stock in cash.

European gauges reverse early losses to trade higher as investors watch a busy slate of corporate earnings amid Iranian efforts to reopen Hormuz. Defense and bank sectors
outperform, while food & beverage shares lag. Sainsbury falls after a double-downgrade from Goldman. Nordex surges as much as 15% after the renewable-energy equipment firm beat expectations. Commerzbank rises more than 2% as Bank of America upgrades its shares
to buy. Entain shares fall as much as 7.1% in heavy trading volume after news that one of the gaming company’s major shareholders, Eminence Capital, is being shuttered. Seraphim Space Investment Trust shares fall as much as 16% in London trading after it announced
plans to raise funds by issuing shares. Euro-area companies expect selling prices to climb 3.5% over the next 12 months due to the Iran war, an ECB survey showed, in an increase the central bank called “significant.”  Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.4%,
FTSE 100 -0.05%. Defense +1.1%, Banks +1.1%, Industrial Goods +0.9%. Food & Bev -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia rose after a report said Iran offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, buoying sentiment after earlier efforts to restart talks stalled.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1%, while Taiwan’s Taiex index was among best performers in the region, led by a surge in TSMC to a record. Markets in Vietnam and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Asian companies are entering the busiest week of the
earnings season, offering investors a glimpse of how the Iran war has impacted business. In Japan, investors are keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Tuesday. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Asian chip stocks
advanced as investors continued piling into the artificial intelligence trade ahead of Samsung’s earnings on Thursday. Chinese chip stocks extend gains after the release of DeepSeek V4, with state TV touting its integration with local chipmakers. Korean power
grid supplier stocks jump as Citrini Research says the marginal supplier of large power transformers to the US grid is Korean. Kospi +2.15%, Taiwan +1.75%, Thailand +1.6%, Nikkei 225 +1.4%, Sensex +0.8%, CSI 300 ~flat. Hang Seng Index -0.2%, ASX 200 -0.2%,
Indonesia -0.3%, Singapore -0.6%, Philippines -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries trade slightly cheaper in early US trading, with 10-year yield +1.5bps around 4.315% and the curve roughly flat. US session includes auctions of 2- and
5-year notes, with 7-year sale ahead Tuesday, Fed policy decision Wednesday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of items so far; Intel’s anticipated multi-billion dollar bond sale may be announced as early as Monday, and dealers expect a total of about
$20 billion this week

METALS: 

Gold is trading largely steady to slightly softer this morning in a wait-and-see mode ahead of this week’s heavy calendar. Spot gold traded in a narrow range just
above $4,700 an ounce. Investors are watching oil prices and inflation implications closely as efforts to resume peace talks between the US and Iran stalled and energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz remained choked. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver -0.1%, Copper futures
-0.05%. 

ENERGY:   

Crude oil prices came off their overnight highs after Axios reported that Iran gave the US a new proposal on reopening of the Strait
⁠of Hormuz. Brent crude rose above $108 a barrel before paring gains after President
Trump canceled a planned trip by top US envoys to mediators in Pakistan over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut although Tehran signaled it would accept an interim agreement to reopen the waterway in exchange for the US lifting its blockade
of Iranian ports, Axios reported. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained at a near-complete halt, with neither Iran nor the US showing any sign of easing their
blockades of maritime traffic. Iran continues to fill supertankers with millions of barrels of crude, even as it remains unable to deliver them, with vessels congregating off Kharg and near Chabahar, close to the border with Pakistan. Goldman Sachs analysts
raised their oil price forecasts again, citing an estimated 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude production losses that are draining global oil inventories at a record pace. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas +3.2%, RBOB +0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell for a second day following an Axios report that Iran has offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and as traders
eye a packed week of central bank decisions.  This week includes a heavy slate of global corporate earnings and key central bank decisions, including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. The Japanese yen was pinned just below the crucial 160 level. The
⁠BOJ is also expected to keep interest rates steady on Tuesday but signal its readiness
to hike as soon as June. Offshore yuan gets a boost from solid PBOC fixing. US$ Index -0.3%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.6%, NZDUSD +0.7%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD -0.5%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.5%, Spot Ethereum -1.9%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Aclara Resources (ARA CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$6
• Assai (ASAI3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $10.50
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $520
• Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $104
• MSC Industrial (MSM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $117
• Nokia (NOKIA FH) ADRs Raised to Buy at Argus; PT $15
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $85
• OGE Energy (OGE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
• Rollins (ROL) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $66
• Snap (SNAP) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $10
• Toromont Industries (TIH CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$235
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $270
• AMD (AMD) Cut to Market Perform at Northland
• Campbell’s (CPB) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $21
• Digital Realty (DLR) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $210
• Gartner (IT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
• GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $1,190
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $357
• KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Pinterest (PINS) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $23
• Terns (TERN) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Initiations
• Celcuity (CELC) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $150
• Cohu (COHU) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $55
• Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $105
• DDC Enterprise (DDC) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $3
• DoorDash (DASH) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $225
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $35
• HMH Holding (HMH) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $26
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $27
• Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $32
• Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $30
• Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets
• LB Pharmaceuticals (LBRX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $45
• Matson (MATX) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $230
• Micron (MU) Rated New Buy at Melius
• Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• NervGen Pharma (NGEN CN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $18
• NRG Energy (NRG) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
• Onex (ONEX CN) Reinstated Neutral at CIBC; PT C$135
• Powell Industries (POWL) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $310
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets
• Rubrik (RBRK) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $65
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Buy at Melius
• Shattuck Labs (STTK) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $101
• Stubhub (STUB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8.25
• TuHURA Biosciences Inc (HURA) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke