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The ES jumped to its 9th record high and logged a weekly gain of 0.50%, while the NQ jumped to its 5th record high, up 1.5% on the week. The YM fell 0.40% for the week.
The AI bubble story that started 6 months ago has exploded higher and has been extremely resilient despite the anxiety of geopolitical risks. All this is great, but the war with Iran has left the American public in its grimmest mood on record. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest level in its 50-year history.
After last Friday’s big week and record gains, this week is packed with economic reports, earnings, and the ongoing war with Iran. This week is the busiest earnings week of the quarter and the second-to-last Fed meeting for Jerome Powell.
Five out of the “Magnificent 7” companies report earnings: Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) report starting early in the week, and Apple (AAPL) reports on Thursday. When you throw in the US/Iran headlines and Thursday’s busy economic schedule, it is guaranteed to be one of the most volatile weeks of the year. Tesla has already reported earnings, so the only Mag 7 left to report after this week will be Nvidia.
After trading up to 35.30 on 03/06/26, the VIX traded down to 18.48 on Friday. Of the last 35 sessions, the VIX was up 11, down 23, and 1 unchanged. It has fallen 16.59 points, or 46.99%; there is no fear.
Trump says he canceled the meeting, but Witkoff and Kushner’s anticipated trip to Islamabad for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been sidelined. According to U.S. and Iranian officials, significant deadlock remains regarding the U.S. blockade, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Like I said, it’s going to be a week.
Our lean: I know there has to be a pullback/sell-off, and I know it’s crazy to say this, but I still think there is more room on the upside. If the ES gaps way up, you can sell the early rip and buy the pullbacks, or just be patient and buy them when they fall, especially if it’s a headline drop.
AI Levels
Today I did my AI market profile levels MM26 profile-composite volume.
Volume Profile
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POC: 24,331.50
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VAH: 25,831.50
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VAL: 23,031.50
Classic Pivot Points — Most Recent Session
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R3: 28,071.50
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R2: 27,767.00
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R1: 27,601.00
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PP: 27,296.50
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S1: 27,130.50
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S2: 26,826.00
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S3: 26,660.00
Camarilla Pivots — Most Recent Session
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CR4: 27,643.38
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CR3: 27,537.44
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CR2: 27,484.46
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CR1: 27,461.97
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CS1: 27,408.03
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CS2: 27,385.54
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CS3: 27,332.56
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CS4: 27,226.63
Woodie Pivots — Most Recent Session
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WR2: 27,767.00
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WR1: 27,610.50
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WPP: 27,314.25
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WS1: 27,157.75
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WS2: 26,861.50
DeMark Pivots — Most Recent Session
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DR1: 27,687.25
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DPP: 27,376.13
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DS1: 27,244.75
Fibonacci Retracement — Swing 22,961.50 → 27,462.50
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0%: 27,462.50
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23.6%: 26,400.26
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38.2%: 25,743.12
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50%: 25,212.00
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61.8%: 24,680.88
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78.6%: 23,924.71
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100%: 22,961.50
The ES made a low on Globex at 7135.50, traded up to 7189.50, and opened Friday’s regular session at 7162.50, up 20.75 points or +0.29%.
After the open, the ES traded 7160.75, rallied up to 7173.75, then sold off down to 7145.00 at 10:00. It rallied up to 7162.50, sold off to a higher low at 7149.50 at 10:30, and then rallied 27.50 points up to a new high at 7177.00 at 11:20. The ES pulled back to 7170.50 and then rallied straight up to 7191.50 at 11:30. It pulled back to 7182.00, rallied to a new high at 7197.25 at 11:45, made four lower highs, and traded down to 7185.25 at 12:10.
The ES then rallied up to 7194.50 at 12:30, sold off to 7184.25, rallied to 7194.00 at 12:55, and traded back down to 7182.75 at 1:30. It pushed higher to 7200.75 at 1:50, sold off to 7184.75 at 2:15, and traded back up to 7200.00 at 3:20. The ES then sold off to 7189.25 and traded 7194.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.5 billion to buy. It rallied up to 7199.00 at 3:58, pulled back to 7193.24, and traded 7194.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES flatlined and settled at 7195.50, up 52 points or +0.73%. The NQ settled at 27,440.25, up 506.25 points or +1.88%, the YM settled at 49,424, down 66 points or -0.13%, and the RTY settled at 2,796.80, up 0.38% on the day.
In the end, the endless buying pushed the SOX PHLX Semiconductor Index to its 18th straight gain—its longest winning streak on record—climbing 47%. Intel (INTC) jumped 24% to a record high after blockbuster earnings, helping push the stock higher, surpassing its level from the year 2000 and boosting sentiment across the broader chip sector. NVIDIA (NVDA) also closed at a record, retaking the $5 trillion market cap crown.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the semiconductors led a rotation out of the Dow and into the S&P and Nasdaq. Overall trade volume was low at 1.38 million contracts traded; volume is slightly below the 20-day average for a full session, which currently stands at 1.839 million shares.
Performance Snapshot
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Current Level: 10,507.39
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Session Change: +428.82 (+4.25%)
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Total Gain: +2,931.02 (+0.63%)
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Advance/Decline: 18 / 0
Economic Calendar
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Monday: There are no economic reports.
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Tuesday: 9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; 10:00 Consumer Confidence.
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Wednesday: Durable Goods, Housing Starts and Permits, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance; 2:00 FOMC Meeting; 2:30 Fed Chair Powell press conference.
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Thursday: 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, GDP, Personal Income, PCE; 9:45 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI); 1:00 Leading Indicators.
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Friday: PMI, ISM.
The MOC session opened with a modest imbalance but quickly established a firm buy-side tone that persisted throughout the majority of the auction. At 15:50, the market showed a $1.6B. From there, the session built steadily, ultimately peaking around 15:54 with total imbalances exceeding $5.6B, driven by nearly $9.3B in buy orders versus $3.6B for sale. This early expansion and sustained elevation in buy pressure signaled institutional participation rather than short-term retail flows.
The lean metrics reinforced this view. The overall market leaned +64.3% on dollars and +52.9% on symbols, indicating a strong but somewhat rotational buy bias. However, the NASDAQ stood out with an +81.2% dollar lean and +75.0% symbol lean, clearly reflecting a more wholesale accumulation of tech-heavy names. In contrast, the NYSE was more balanced, even showing a -50.4% symbol lean despite a +51.4% dollar bias, suggesting rotation rather than outright conviction.
Sector flows further clarified positioning. Communication Services (+92.0%), Consumer Staples (+93.1%), and Basic Materials (+100%) all showed strong buy-side control, with Basic Materials representing a pure one-sided flow. Energy (+74.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (+72.6%) also leaned firmly bid. Notably, Financials (-71.8%) and Real Estate (-55.6%) showed meaningful sell pressure, with Financials representing a clear wholesale distribution given the extreme negative lean.
At the symbol level, leadership was concentrated in mega-cap and semiconductor names. Strong buying appeared in AMD, MU, NVDA, AAPL, and GOOGL, alongside notable flows in TSLA and COST. On the sell side, pressure was more dispersed but included key Financial names like BRK.B and V, aligning with the sector-level weakness.
Into the close, imbalances tapered but remained firmly positive, finishing near $727M with a ~67.9% buy skew. Overall, the session reflected a decisive institutional bid, led by tech and growth sectors, with clear rotation out of Financials and selective defensive accumulation.
Monday
9:00am – 11:30am, Manny & Tom
12:00pm – 1:30pm, Bo
2:00pm – 2:30pm, Tom
Technical Edge
Fair Values for April 27, 2026
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SP: 30.96
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NQ: 138.5
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Dow: 150.07
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, April 24, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 112 / 17
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 315 / 115
• NYSE TRIN: 1.30
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.64
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending April 24, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 307 / 56
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 677 / 266
• NYSE TRIN: 0.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
ES M
The bull/bear line for the ES comes in at 7184.00. This is the key pivot controlling intraday sentiment. Holding above this level keeps the market in a constructive to bullish posture, while acceptance below it shifts control back to sellers.
ES is currently trading around 7188.50, slightly above the bull/bear line after a strong overnight push. This suggests buyers are attempting to maintain control, but the market is still very close to the pivot, making this a decision zone.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 7194.75, followed by 7200.50. A sustained move above these levels opens the door for a push toward 7238.00, which is the upper range target for today. Acceptance above 7200.50 would likely accelerate momentum into that target.
On the downside, initial support sits at 7143.00, followed by 7135.50. If price loses the bull/bear line at 7184.00 and fails to reclaim it, expect a move toward 7130.25, which is the lower range target. A break below this level could extend the downside toward 7079.50.
Overall, the market is attempting to hold a bullish tone above 7184.00, but with price still hovering near this pivot, traders should remain cautious. Acceptance above 7200.50 strengthens the bullish case toward 7238.00, while failure back below 7184.00 shifts focus to 7130.25 and lower.
NQ M
The bull/bear line for NQ is at 27352.00. This remains the key pivot for today’s session. Holding above this level keeps short-term momentum tilted to the upside, while losing it would shift control back to sellers.
Currently, NQ is trading around 27449.25, positioning price above the bull/bear line and showing early strength during the Globex session. As long as price holds above 27352.00, dips can be viewed as potential buying opportunities.
On the upside, the first area of resistance comes in at 27462.50, followed by 27641.50, which is the upper range target for today. A sustained move into this zone would confirm bullish continuation and could open the door for a test toward 27913.75. Acceptance above 27641.50 increases the probability of a broader expansion higher.
On the downside, initial support sits at 27352.00. If this level fails, expect a move toward 27062.50, the lower range target. A break below this level would signal deeper weakness and could lead to a test of 26992.00 and potentially 26790.00.
Overall, the tone is bullish above 27352.00, with buyers in control while price holds above this pivot. A breakdown below this level would negate the bullish structure and shift focus back to the downside range targets.
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, April 24, 2026
The session had a light, upbeat atmosphere, but underneath that was a focused learning environment. The market itself started somewhat choppy and range-bound, requiring patience and discipline before delivering a strong directional move later.
Market Context
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Early headline: S&P futures pushing higher toward records, with macro news (Iran/Pakistan developments) influencing volatility.
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Initial conditions:
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Tight range / chop
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Traders noted need for a clean break of key pivots
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Some uncertainty around structure (short, lean, but not clean)
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This set the tone: not a jump-in environment early.
Key Trading Developments
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A10 level identified: ~7163
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Clear discussion around level-based trading and scaling
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Emphasis on using a “box” (±2 pts) to manage entries
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Repeated opportunity:
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A setup triggered multiple times within minutes
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Reinforced the idea that good setups often repeat
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Mid-morning:
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Market described as a “chopfest”
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Members showed awareness of conditions and avoided overtrading
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Major turning point:
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News catalyst → futures ripped higher
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PTG levels played out precisely
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Big Win of the Day
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7195 target HIT
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This aligned perfectly with the pre-defined plan:
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Acceptance above 7150
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Targets: 7165 → 7180 → 7195
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This is a textbook example of:
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Trusting levels
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Letting the trade come to you
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Executing the plan rather than predicting
Key Lessons & Takeaways
1. Patience Pays
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Early chop reinforced the need to wait for structure and confirmation
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One trader even said they would “sit on my fingers” — excellent discipline
2. Trust the Process
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Members explicitly acknowledged:
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“trusting the process”
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“great learning session”
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The plan worked exactly as laid out → reinforces confidence in the system
3. First Pullback & Structure Clarity
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Strong discussion around:
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What qualifies as a true first pullback
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Importance of displacement and levels (like A4, A10, DIS)
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4. Repetition Builds Skill
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Same setup appearing multiple times helped reinforce pattern recognition
5. Scaling & Risk Management
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Use of zones (not exact ticks) and scaling into positions was highlighted
6. Adapt to Market Conditions
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Recognizing chop vs trend:
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Avoid forcing trades in chop
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Be ready to act when momentum shifts
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Bottom Line
This was a model PTG day:
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Patience early
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Education throughout
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Execution later
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Plan → Trigger → Target achieved
DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 27, 2026
Macro / Geopolitics:
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Focus remains on US–Iran tensions; peace talks stalled
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Strait of Hormuz still blocked (~20% of global oil supply) → oil +2%, inflation concerns rising
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Goldman Sachs flags severe global inventory draws; supply deficit expected this quarter
Fed / Rates:
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Powell’s final Fed meeting this week before likely transition to Kevin Warsh
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Warsh expected to be confirmed midweek
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FedWatch: ~99.5% probability of no rate change (“wait and see” stance)
Earnings Focus:
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Major tech (MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, META, GOOGL) reporting this week
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Key theme: AI spending + long-term revenue outlook (2026+)
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Mag 7 rebounding in April, outperforming S&P (MAGS +13% vs SPX +9%)
Today / Near-Term Earnings:
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Premarket: Verizon (VZ)
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After close: NUE, PSA, UHS, VTR
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Heavy slate Tuesday including GM, KO, UPS, SPOT, and others
Volatility / Positioning:
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Vol remains elevated, driven by geopolitical headlines
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ES 5-day range contracting (83 vs 92 prior)
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Slight bullish bias into US open on light volume
ES Technicals:
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Market compressing within trendlines → breakout likely soon
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Resistance: 7204–7207, then 7630–7635
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Support: 7150–7155, then 6866–6871
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50-day MA above 200-day MA → broader bullish bias intact
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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