TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Retail Inventories, Building Permits, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Imports, Exports,
Wholesale Inventories, Housing Starts, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders; 9:45ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision; 2:00ET FOMC Rate Decision; 2:30ET Fed Chair Powell’s Final Press Conference
Highlights and News:
-
Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran – WSJ
-
Iran’s Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader’s role – Reuters
- Iranian rial has hit a record low against the dollar, -65% in the last year
- Russia ready to resume Ukraine talks in Middle East as UAE plans OPEC exit – TASS
-
Israel has set a two-week deadline to reach an agreement with the Lebanese government – Al Arabiya
- An Israeli airstrike targets the outskirts of Nabatieh, south Lebanon
- CBS Sports lists the Chicago Bears as the top team entering the 2026 NFL Season
Global stocks are showing a mixed but mostly cautious performance this morning ahead of key tech earnings, the Fed policy decision and continued rising oil prices
on concerns over a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. For the first time, Iran lacks a single, unchallenged clerical figure at the pinnacle of power — an abrupt departure from tradition that could be contributing to a more rigid stance in Tehran as
it weighs renewed dialogue with Washington. While Mojtaba Khamenei occupies the top position, three individuals familiar with internal deliberations describe his role as primarily legitimizing decisions driven by the military leadership rather than setting
policy himself. Elsewhere, Moscow is ready to ask Middle Eastern countries to once again host talks on Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko said. Spanish inflation accelerated further beyond the European Central Bank’s 2% target, with
consumer prices rising 3.5% from a year earlier, supporting market expectations that interest rates will be raised this year due to the Iran war. The Bank of Canada is likely to hold interest rates steady as officials weigh the inflationary impact of the war
in Iran.
EQUITIES: Key earnings after the bell: GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, KLAC, QCOM
US equity futures inched up at the start of a packed session featuring multiple Big Tech earnings and what is likely to be Jerome Powell’s final Federal Reserve meeting before his term
ends on May 15. Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet are slated to report after the closing bell, when investors will gauge how their AI bets are paying off. The four “hyperscalers” represent more than $10 trillion in market capitalization and 17%
of the S&P 500’s weighting. Meanwhile, major movers in the premarket session include online brokerage Robinhood Markets, which fell 10% after missing expectations for first-quarter profit. NXP Semiconductors rose 16% after it forecast second-quarter revenue
and profit above expectations. Shares of data-storage companies climbed following an upbeat fourth-quarter forecast from Seagate Technology. In deals, Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman and Jameson whiskey maker Pernod Ricard terminated their merger talks, marking
an abrupt end to a potential deal.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P flat, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.02%, DJI -0.05%
In pre-market trading, Avantor (AVTR) is up 9.2% after the life-sciences company reported adjusted Ebitda and net sales for the first quarter that beat. Avis Budget
(CAR) plunges 18% after it reported wider than expected first-quarter losses per share. Bloom Energy (BE) rises 18% after the fuel-cell maker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year as margins improve and power capacity expands. Booking Holdings (BKNG)
is down over 4% after the online travel agent said the Middle East conflict impacted its first-quarter results to varying degrees. Brown-Forman (BF/B) falls 6.8% after it terminated their merger talks with Pernod Ricard and was downgraded to underweight from
neutral by JPMorgan. GE Healthcare (GEHC) falls over 5% after the maker of X-ray equipment cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Generac (GNRC) is up 8% after the generator maker reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share
that beat estimates. ICON (ICLR) is up 12% after the health-care services company said an audit committee completed its investigation into the company’s accounting practices and reaffirmed there was no impact on customers, operations or cash flow. KalVista
Pharmaceuticals (KALV) surges 39% to $26.72 after Chiesi agreed to acquire the drugmaker for $27.00 per share in cash. NeoGenomics (NEO) climbs 12% after the cancer diagnostics firm boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
is up 19% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a second-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus. O-I Glass (OI) sinks 19% after the glass bottle maker cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for
the full year. Porch Group (PRCH) jumps 22% after the home-services software company raised its full-year revenue forecast. Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) is down 12% after the firm said expenses jumped 18% in the first quarter and warned that its “Trump account”
push would require an additional $100 million investment. Seagate Technology (STX) is up 15% after the computer hardware and storage company gave a fourth-quarter forecast that was much stronger than expected.
• STX US (+18%): Seagate Jumps on ‘Blow-Out’ Results and Outlook: Street Wrap
o WDC US (+9.3%), SNDK US (+5.3%), MU US (+3.5%)
• NXPI US (+16%): NXP Semi Gains on Robust Results and Forecast: Street Wrap
o ON US (+4.1%), MCHP US (+2.2%), TXN US (+1.1%)
• BE US (+15%): Bloom Energy Shares Rise on Revenue Forecast Boost
• SBUX US (+4.9%): Starbucks’ US Rebound Shows Turnaround Plans Are Resonating
• V US (+4.2%): Visa Profit Beats, Revenue Posts Biggest Increase Since 2022
o MA US (+2.0%), XYZ (+0.8%)
• TMUS US (+2.3%): T-Mobile Narrows FY Core Adjusted Ebitda Forecast: Snapshot
• BKNG US (-4.2%): Booking Slides on Weak Forecast as Iran Conflict Weighs
• CAR US (-6.3%): Avis Budget Insiders Report Stock Transaction
• TER US (-8.0%): Teradyne Shares Fall After Second-Quarter EPS Forecast
• HOOD US (-9.8%): Robinhood Falls After Warning of Expenses Tied to Trump Accounts
European gauges slipped as investors parsed a mixed batch of earnings and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Higher
energy prices are exerting some pressure on European stocks, in what has been a busy morning of earnings reports. UBS jumped after traders helped drive profit in the first quarter, while Deutsche Bank shares dropped after the lender increased its credit provisions
for commercial real estate. Adidas shares soar as much as 8.3%, supported by 1Q revenue and operating profit beat. Glanbia shares surged as much as 12% to a record high on the Irish stock exchange after the food and nutrition company said it expects adjusted
EPS growth this year to hit the top end of its guidance. AstraZeneca falls despite reporting better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first quarter. Hexatronic falls as much as 17% after the Swedish maker of fiber-optic cables reported that sales fell
more than analysts expected. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 -1%. Retail -2.4%, Healthcare -2%, Personal goods -1.3%, Energy +1.2%. Telecom +0.9%.
Shares in Asia were mixed as traders await a series of upcoming central bank rate decisions in major economies, along with earnings from big artificial intelligence
players. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1%. Key stock benchmarks in South Korea, Hong Kong, India and mainland China rose, while Australia’s declined. Japan’s markets are shut for a public holiday. AI enthusiasm has already lifted several Asian stock
markets above some developed peers by market capitalization. Taiwan became the latest to move up the ranks, with its stock market overtaking Canada’s to become the world’s sixth largest. Tech strength lifts Hang Seng to a gain of more than 1.5%, but Taiex
and ASX 200 fail to join in the advance. Victory Giant Technology Huizhou Co., a supplier to Nvidia, rose 7% after reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in its first-quarter sales, driven by stronger demand for printed circuit boards used in AI servers. Samsung
shares erase earlier losses to close higher after local media reported that Nvidia was mulling physical AI collaboration with the chipmaker. Hang Seng Index +1.7%, CSI 300 +1.1%, Sensex +0.8%, Thailand +0.8%, Kospi +0.75%, Philippines +0.7%, Indonesia +0.4%.
ASX 200 -0.3%, Singapore -0.5%, Taiwan -0.5%, Vietnam -1.2%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries extend this week’s declines as oil prices rise further, amid steeper losses in European bonds. Cash trade was closed overnight due to the Japanese holiday.
Treasury yields are 1bp-1.5bp higher on the day with curve spread little changed; 10-year is near 4.36%. Into the Fed policy decision, there has been a wave of flows in Treasury options targeting an increase in long-end yields to 5% or higher. The Fed is expected
to hold interest rates steady today as officials debate whether to flag risks of rising inflation in a policy statement issued after what may be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as head of the central bank. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is currently
running about one percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target, and the March reading due later this week is expected to move even higher.
METALS:
Gold prices slipped as rising oil prices heightened concerns over persistent inflation, with markets closely awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
on the future path of interest rates. Central banks boosted gold buying to 244 tons in the first quarter from 208 tons, the fastest pace in over a year, led by Poland, Uzbekistan and China. Spot gold slides around 1% at $4,555 per ounce, after falling
to its lowest level since April 2 in
the previous session. Spot gold -0.95%, Silver -0.8%, Copper futures +0.3%.
ENERGY:
Crude oil prices climbed around 3% as front month brent crude futures briefly made their way back above $115 amid concern over a prolonged blockade in the Strait
of Hormuz and President Trump’s warning to Iran that it had “better get smart soon.” Active July futures tested $108 a barrel. Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported late on Tuesday, citing
US officials. Officials said that Trump had opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports with the blockade as his other options – resuming bombing or walking away from the conflict – carried more risk, according to the WSJ. The UAE is reviewing
its role and contributions in multilateral organizations but is not planning any further withdrawals for now, a UAE official told Reuters after Abu Dhabi announced its exit from OPEC. WTI +3.5%, Brent +3.2%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB +3.3%.
CURRENCIES:
In currency markets, the dollar is largely unchanged against most G-10 currency majors as investors awaited a closely watched Federal Reserve rate decision . Activity
was tempered by markets in Japan closing for a public holiday and by caution ahead of a string of major central bank decisions over the coming 48 hours,. Aussie dollar is near the bottom of the G-10 leaderboard after core inflation metrics fell short of expectations.
The Canadian dollar saw little change ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The bank is expected to hold the benchmark rate at 2.25% as it monitors the effect of high oil prices on the economy. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY
+0.15%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD -0.03%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.5%.
Spot Bitcoin +0.7%, Spot Ethereum +0.6%.
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
- Upgrades
- Celestica (CLS CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $430
- Centene (CNC) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $60
- Crane Co. (CR) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $215
- Elevance (ELV) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $435
- Franklin Resources (BEN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $31
- MaxLinear (MXL) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $75
- NeoGenomics (NEO) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $11
- Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $25
- Nokia (NOKIA FH) ADRs Raised to Buy at Arete
- Qiagen (QGEN) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $43
- Radian (RDN) Raised to Buy at BofA
- Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $500
- Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT $570
- T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $260
- Tamboran Resources (TBN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $55
- Telecom Argentina (TECO2 AR) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
- Zeta (ZETA) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc
- Downgrades
- Boston Scientific (BSX) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $60
- Brown-Forman (BF/B) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
- Clearwater Paper (CLW) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $17
- MercadoLibre (MELI) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $2,050
- NTG Clarity Networks (NCI CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord
- Purple Innovation (PRPL) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
- Qualys (QLYS) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
- Rapid7 (RPD) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
- StoneCo (STNE) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $14
- Sysco (SYY) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $84
- Tenable (TENB) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
- Universal Health (UHS) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
- Initiations
- Aktis Oncology (AKTS) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
- Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $209
- Chartwell Retirement (CSH-U CN) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
- Corbus Pharmaceuticals (CRBP) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $45
- Fuerte Metals (FMT CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$14
- Gunnison Copper Corp (GCU CN) Rated New Buy at Paradigm Capital
- Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VII (HVIIU) Rated New Buy at Benchmark
- Legence (LGN) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital
- Nvidia (NVDA) Rated New Outperform at Safra; PT $300
- PicS (PICS) Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $20
- Sienna Senior Living (SIA CN) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James
- Standard Lithium Ltd (SLI CN) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
David Wienke
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