Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:45ET
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, ISM Employment

Highlights and News:  

• Iranian diplomatic source: Tehran submitted a new proposal to the Pakistani mediator yesterday
• Japan Likely Spent About $34.5 Billion on Yen Intervention
• Nordisk’s obesity shot Wegovy helped people with alcoholism reduce their drinking in a controlled study
• PENTAGON TO EXPAND NVIDIA, MICROSOFT AI USE IN SECRET NETWORKS
• Iraq begins work on major Basra-Haditha oil pipeline
• The Kentucky Derby takes place tomorrow

World stocks steadied with many global markets closed today for May Day/Labor Day holidays, observed in over 80 countries. Goldman traders note that May is likely
to see moderate tailwinds from corporate buybacks, while systematic strategies are more likely to become sellers of global stocks after a heavy re-leveraging. President Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade on Iran and was briefed by commanders on further
military options. Iran’s speaker of parliament said the blockade will further push up oil prices and that it must be lifted for new talks to occur. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed not to give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated after strong gains on Thursday, when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records. Apple, the fifth Mag 7 megacap to report in two days, delivered a surprisingly
strong revenue forecast for its third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.” Alphabet’s 10% gain on Thursday added $421 billion to its market value, the second-biggest
one-day jump in market cap add for any stock ever. Cloud-based software firm Veeva Systems jumped in premarket on news that it’s set to replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500 Index. Western Digital shares fell in extended trading despite beating expectations
across key metrics, as lofty expectations weighed on the stock after a more than 60% surge in April. Chevron and Exxon beat estimates, offsetting supply and production losses from the Iran war. The US credit rating is under pressure from a widening deficit,
with debt “far above” other AA peers, Fitch warned. It expects further fiscal deterioration, driven by tax cuts. Futures move higher after an Axios report that Iran has delivered a new draft proposal to the US to end the war through Pakistani mediators. Futures
ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.5%.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.5%

In pre-market trading, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 3.8% after giving a surprisingly strong
revenue forecast for the third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.” Nvidia (NVDA) +0.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.2%,
Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.7%, Amgen (AMGN) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker reported underwhelming sales of some of its newer products for the first quarter. Cohu (COHU) falls 1.1% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported adjusted
earnings per share that missed estimates. Moderna (MRNA) jumps 6.7% after first-quarter sales beat expectations, as the struggling vaccine maker has found new growth outside the US. Roblox (RBLX) tumbles 24% after the video-game company reported daily active
users for the first quarter that missed analyst estimates. The company also lowered its forecast for full-year bookings. Sandisk (SNDK) is down 6% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter results that were much stronger than expected
and gave an outlook that was well above the consensus. Despite the upside in the report and forecast, analysts said the report may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down 21% after the biotech firm said it plans to continue the study of its experimental cancer drug, following
a review by an independent committee. Twilio Inc. (TWLO) jumps 18% after the software company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat estimates. The company also raised its revenue growth forecast for the year. Veeva Systems (VEEV) rises 9.7% as the
cloud-based software company is set to replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500. Zeta Global (ZETA) is up 6.5% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

TEAM US (+23.6%): Atlassian 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates

WDAY US (+2.9%), NOW US (+2.8%), SNOW US (+2.3%), CRM US (+2.2%)

TWLO US (+20.7%): Twilio Shares Rise on 1Q Revenue Beat, FY Forecast Raise

RDDT US (+14.7%): Reddit Beats Sales Expectations Again on Continued Ads Growth

VEEV US (+10.3%): Veeva Systems Set to Join S&P 500

ROKU US (+7.8%): Roku Gains on Strong Results and Ebitda Forecast: Street Wrap

AAPL US (+3.2%): Apple Sales Forecast Tops Estimates Even as Mac Shortages Linger

EL US (+3.0%): Nordea Invest Global Stars Adds Mondelez, Cuts Estee Lauder

RIVN US (-4.0%): Rivian Leaves Investors Wanting More on Critical R2 SUV Debut

SNDK US (-5.3%): Sandisk Falls as Strong Report Can’t Justify Rally: Street Wrap

CLX US (-5.6%): Clorox Shares Slide as Reduced FY Guide Misses Estimates

WDC US (-7.1%): Western Digital Falls as Results Can’t Extend April Surge

SMMT US (-13.9%): Summit Therapeutics Shares Sink After HARMONi-3 Data Update

RBLX US (-21.9%): Roblox Shares Tumble After Safety Features Slow User Growth

Intel was up over 110% in April — the best month in INTC’s 55-year Nasdaq history

Most European markets are closed for a public holiday. UK stocks declined in thin holiday trading, dragged lower by NatWest after disappointing earnings and AstraZeneca
following a regulatory setback. Meanwhile, water utilities came under pressure after Citi downgraded United Utilities and Severn Trent, citing limited valuation upside. Diageo gained 1% after President Trump said he would be removing some Scotch tariffs following
a visit from King Charles III. AstraZeneca slipped more than 2.5% after the US Food and Drug Administration’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee voted against the drugmaker’s breast cancer medicine. UK home values unexpectedly strengthened in April, according
to Nationwide Building Society, suggesting the housing market remained resilient. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX closed, CAC closed, FTSE 100 -0.6%. Media +0.3%, Personal Goods +0.2%. Basic Resources -0.4%, Healthcare -0.3%.

Shares in Asia rose, buoyed by tech earnings as traders awaited more catalysts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.3% Friday, with key gauges in Japan, Australia
and New Zealand closing in the green. All of the region’s other key markets were closed for holidays. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 rose in tandem with US peers, boosted by strong results from major technology companies. Chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron
was one of the biggest gainers after delivering a better-than-expected forecast. Mitsubishi Corp. shares erased earlier losses to rise as much as 9.1% after the trading company’s full-year net income forecast beat analyst estimates. On the data front, South
Korea’s exports surged in April as booming semiconductor demand continues to anchor growth. Next week’s highlights include rate decisions in Australia and Malaysia. ASX 200 +0.75%, Nikkei 225 +0.04%, Topix +0.05%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are roughly flat across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s just slightly flatter. US 10-year yields trade around 4.37%. IG dollar issuance slate empty
so far. Twelve names priced $38.3 billion Thursday, paying about 4.5 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed. Weekly volumes past $62 billion so far exceed dealer forecasts of near $50 billion. Today is expected to
be quiet.

METALS: 

Gold fell as traders weighed a standoff between the US and Iran that’s dashed expectations for rate cuts from central banks across the world. The energy-supply shock
caused by the conflict has added to inflation risks, raising the likelihood that central banks will keep rates steady for longer or even hike them, which is a headwind for non-yielding bullion. Most analysts are still bullish on the precious metal, with central
banks adding gold holdings in the first quarter at the fastest pace in more than a year. Spot gold is trading around $4,579 per ounce, falling as much as 1.2% overnight as traders dialed back rate cut expectations following the Fed’s hawkish hold. Spot gold
-0.8%, Silver +0.1%, Copper futures -0.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are mixed but set for a second weekly gain as the Iran conflict showed no signs of progress toward an accord. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei cast
doubt on any deal with the US, vowing to retain the country’s nuclear and missile programs while asserting Tehran’s continued control over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and was briefed on
further military options. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Friday that no unilateral Iranian assurances can be trusted regarding freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, following what he called Tehran’s “treacherous aggression” against
its neighbors. ConocoPhillips is warning of imminent “critical shortages” of oil for some nations as the war enters its third month, with the supply pinch appearing likely to significantly worsen as soon as June. WTI -0.7%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas +1.1%, RBOB
+0.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, USD/JPY is little changed near 156.50, masking another volatile session. The pair rallied in Asia before plunging sharply in European trading
— dropping around 150 pips in minutes — then partially recovered. Japan likely spent around $34.5 billion Thursday in its first currency intervention to prop up the yen since July 2024, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts. Yesterday’s
move was reminiscent of intervention two years ago, also at the start of Japan’s Golden Week. Investors remained on high alert for further action from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, with May 1 holidays thinning markets around Asia. A Japanese official hinted
that further intervention could come as the nation heads into its Golden Week holidays next week. Data showed Japan’s core inflation slowed in April as government subsidies blunted the effect of energy prices. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD +0.15%,
USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK ~flat, USDNOK +0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Spot Ethereum +1%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Air Products (APD) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $360
• Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (BDGI CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$74
• Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $915
• Choice Properties REIT (CHP-U CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$16.50
• CNH Industrial (CNH) Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT $13
• Hershey (HSY) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $210
• Paramount (PSKY) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $42
• Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen
• Textron (TXT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $115
• TKO (TKO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Willis Towers (WTW) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $300
• Downgrades
• Arizona Metals (AMC CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
• Avis Budget (CAR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $160
• Beacon Financial (BBT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Check Point Software (CHKP) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $67
• First Interstate Banc (FIBK) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $37
• KalVista (KALV) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
• Methanex (MX CN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$88.32
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $44
• Roblox (RBLX) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $31
• Starbucks (SBUX) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $110
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $75
• Truist Financial (TFC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $55
• Initiations
• Alpha & Omega Semi (AOSL) Rated New Strong Buy at Needham; PT $50
• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Arista Networks (ANET) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $88
• Artivion (AORT) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $45
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT C$624.86
• Ciena (CIEN) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $416
• Coherent Corp (COHR) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $455
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $72
• Evommune (EVMN) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $54
• Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMC CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$10
• Littelfuse (LFUS) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $450
• Lumentum (LITE) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $1,270
• Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $49
• Rubrik (RBRK) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $70
• Septerna (SEPN) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $43
• Suncrete (RMIX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $19
• Troilus Mining Corp (TLG CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$3

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke