Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ETTrade Balance, Imports, Exports; 9:45ET S&P Global US Services PMI, Composite PMI;
10:00ET ISM Services Index, ISM Services Prices Paid, New Home Sales, ISM Services New Orders, New Home Sales, ISM Services Employment, JOLTS Job Openings,
Fed’s Bowman speaks ; 12:30ET Fed’s Barr speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump says another two to three weeks in Iran war
• US-Iran forces exchange fire in Persian Gulf, 2 US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks with Washington were “making progress”
• Hundreds of vessels were seen clustering near Dubai
  
• 1,550 SHIPS TRAPPED IN GULF WITH 22,500 MARINERS ABOARD: CAINE
• A man was shot by Secret Service officers near the White House

Global stocks inch up in cautious trading as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on sentiment despite resilient corporate earnings and AI optimism. Oil
prices remain elevated but eased slightly after Monday’s surge as the ceasefire in the Middle East appeared to hold. Relative calm returned to the Persian Gulf after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire Monday and Tehran launched missiles and drones toward
the UAE, in the worst flareup since the ceasefire began. The US isn’t escorting every ship through the Strait. It’s building a defensive umbrella over the whole thing. CENTCOM chief Adm. Bradley Cooper says a mix of ships, planes, helicopters and drones is
creating a zone of protection over the Strait. The two sides exchanged fire as the US said it had opened a passage through the waterway and CBS reported two US Navy destroyers had transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf. They faced an Iranian
barrage (missiles, drones, and small boats) but were not hit, thanks to defensive systems and air support.  Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks with Washington were “making progress” but the US and the UAE “should be wary of being dragged back into
quagmire,” according to a post on X.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rebound, with Nasdaq leading gains after Palantir raises its revenue outlook and crude oil slips. Traders remain confident that robust earnings
will continue to power equities higher, with builders of processing and memory chips among the biggest gainers in premarket trading. A flareup of violence in the Middle East has injected fresh uncertainty after strong earnings from tech megacaps and gains
in chipmakers pushed equities to a succession of records. Traders are taking comfort from ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the impasse, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with the Americans are “making progress.” Apple held exploratory
discussions about using Intel and Samsung to produce the main processors for its devices in the US, a move that would offer a secondary option beyond longtime partner TSMC. Meta is said to be tapping Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan to raise about $13 billion for
a data center in El Paso. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. reports after the bell.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.45%, Nasdaq +0.75%, Russell 2000 +0.75%, DJI +0.4%

In pre-market trading, Magnificent Seven are broadly flat to slightly higher, with Amazon (AMZN) +0.6%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT)
+0.4%, and Meta (META) +0.2%, while Apple (AAPL) dips 0.2% and Nvidia (NVDA) is essentially unchanged. Pinterest (PINS) surges 17% after beating Q1 estimates and guiding above consensus for the full year, while Rockwell Automation (ROK) gains 8% on raised
EPS guidance and Firefly Aerospace (FLY) climbs 11% on a revenue beat. On the downside, GeneDx (WGS) cratered 42% after missing Q1 revenue and cutting full-year guidance, Inspire Medical (INSP) falls 18% after slashing its revenue outlook citing reimbursement
uncertainty for its sleep apnea implant, and Fabrinet (FN) drops 11% despite a Q3 EPS beat — unable to extend a 58% YTD rally. Shopify (SHOP) slips 7% as its revenue outlook points to slowing growth, and Palantir (PLTR) falls 3% despite beating on key metrics
as US commercial sales disappointed, though it raised its full-year forecast.

In deal and strategic news, Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) gains 5% after announcing it is co-designing a Financial Crimes AI Agent with Anthropic. Intel
(INTC) rises 3% on reports that Apple (AAPL) has held exploratory talks about using Intel — and Samsung — to manufacture processors for its US devices. Coinbase (COIN) rises 3% after announcing a 14% workforce reduction to manage costs. Bullish (BLSH) slips
2% after agreeing to acquire Equiniti from Siris Capital for $4.2 billion to expand in blockchain-based capital markets infrastructure.

European gauges are mixed to higher as resilient earnings helped temper concerns over whether a fragile Middle East truce will hold. European stock sentiment remains
fragile amid escalating US-Iran tensions, with the EU’s economy commissioner warning of a potential “stagflationary shock” as higher energy prices weigh on economic growth. Stoxx 600 reverses early small loss to trade firmly in the green with banks and technology
companies leading gains while travel & leisure shares underperform. Earnings results have been mixed. Europe may be entering a prolonged cycle of earnings downgrades, as structural shocks widen sector dispersion and limit gains across the broader market, according
to strategists at UBS. Among individual names, AB InBev gains ~7% after reporting a return to positive volume growth in the first quarter. Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 9.4% after the German company reported weak US dialysis volume for the
first quarter. Raiffeisen shares drop as much as 4.1% after the bank reported profits that missed expectations. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +1.5%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 -1.2%. Technology +1.8%, Banks +1.7%, Construction +1.5%. Travel & Leisure -1.4%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower after an exchange of fire between the US and Iran cast doubt on the durability of a four-week ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
fell 0.3%, with TSMC and Delta Electronics among the biggest drags. The AI trade is taking a step back after helping the MSCI gauge erase war-led losses and climb to a record high on Monday. The war’s impact is already rippling through energy-dependent Asian
markets. Philippine inflation surged to its fastest pace in three years, exceeding both central bank and analyst forecasts. Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its cash rate to 4.35% — fully reversing last year’s easing cycle — while signaling it may now pause
further increases. Markets in Japan, China and South Korea are closed for holidays. Hang Seng Index -0.75%, Philippines -0.75%, Sensex -0.3%, Thailand -0.25%, ASX 200 -0.2%, Singapore -0.1%. Taiwan +0.2%, Vietnam +1.1%, Indonesia +1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains, underpinned as oil drifted lower and investors assessed the fragile Middle East ceasefire, with front-end yields about 2bp richer and
the 30-year yield little changed near 5.02% as the curve steepened slightly. US session features April ISM services report and March JOLTS job openings. UK 30-year yield reached 5.76%, highest since 1998, as trading resumed after Monday’s holiday. IG dollar
issuance slate empty so far but expected to pick up after nine offerings totaling $8.35 billion were priced Monday.

METALS: 

Gold pushes higher from a five-week low as a pullback in oil prices offered some relief, though gains remained capped by ongoing Middle East tensions and inflation
concerns. Bullion found support from safe-haven demand, but elevated energy prices continued to weigh on expectations for Fed rate cuts, with investors looking ahead to US Treasury supply and upcoming economic data for further direction. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver
+1.6%, Copper futures +2.3%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices dipped following Monday’s sharp jump, as traders closely monitored the increasingly fragile four-week ceasefire in the Middle East after fresh clashes
between the US and Iran. Benchmark Brent crude fell to below $113 a barrel, after gaining almost 6% on Monday. Hundreds of vessels clustered near Dubai today, as more ships continued to steer clear of the still-empty Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s attempts to
expand its area of control in the region. In a related development in the UAE, an oil terminal in Fujairah was struck, further heightening concerns over maritime security. Iraq is offering its term buyers huge discounts for crude loaded this month, but tankers
will have to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect the barrels. WTI remains stubbornly above $100, while Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the “speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products are concerning.” Diamondback Energy said it’s
boosting crude output in response to rising prices caused by the war. WTI -2.3%, Brent -1.5%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -1.5%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded in tight ranges versus its major peers after a day of clashes tested the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Underlying pressure on
the yen persists due to rate differentials and energy import costs. Aussie dollar inches up against the greenback after the RBA raised interest rates by 25bps as widely expected but indicated the central bank may now have some space before making its next
move. Swiss franc is steady after Switzerland’s inflation quickened to a 16-month high in April as energy costs jumped because of the Middle East war. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.05%,
USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.15%, USDNOK -0.35%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Spot Ethereum +1.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $85
• Cogent Comms (CCOI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $22
• GAP Airports (GAPB MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT $285
• L’Oreal (OR FP) ADRs Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $97
• Pason Systems (PSI CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$18
• Twist Bioscience (TWST) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $70
• UFP Industries (UFPI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $108
• Downgrades
• Amgen (AMGN) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• ARC Resources (ARX CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT C$32.80
• Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$55
• Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Fabrinet (FN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Fox Advisors
• Fermi (FRMI) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $6
• Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $53
• Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• James River Group Holdin (JRVR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Lowe’s (LOW) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $3.75
• Roblox (RBLX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $36
• Verizon (VZ) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Initiations
• AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $7
• Aclaris (ACRS) Reinstated Buy at Guggenheim; PT $12
• ACM Research (ACMR) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $75
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities
• Biomea Fusion (BMEA) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $9
• Cambria Gold Mines Inc (CAMB CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $22
• Delivery Hero (DHER GR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $3.63
• Energy Vault (NRGV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $7
• Lam Research (LRCX) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $300
• Sionna Therapeutics (SION) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $53
• Ultra Clean (UCTT) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $130

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke