Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 7, 2026

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks,
Construction Spending; 11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, Trump meets Brazil’s President Lula da Silva; 12:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 2:05ET Fed’s Hammack speaks;  3:00ET Consumer Credit, Mexico Rate Decision; 3:30 Fed’s
Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • US waits for Iran’s peace deal response as Israel hits Lebanon
  • Trump administration has started issuing refunds for the $166 billion in global tariffs
  • IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS MET KHAMENEI FOR NEARLY 2.5 HOURS: MIZAN
  • EU fails to finalize US trade deal, risking new tariffs on cars
  • US tech-sector layoffs keep mounting as other job cuts decline
  • Israeli attack kills son of Hamas leader negotiating with US
  • Voters in England, Scotland and Wales head to the polls today
  • Cubs Win 8th in a Row, Pick Up Third Straight Walk-Off Win

 

Global stocks edged up, building on yesterday’s strong gains driven by solid earnings, tech momentum, and optimism around a potential US-Iran deal. Chip euphoria
has propelled South Korea’s stock market past Canada’s and is lifting niche companies worldwide, highlighted by Sweden’s Silex Microsystems posting the strongest first-day performance for a sizable European IPO in nearly five years. MSCI’s All-Country World
Index rose 0.25% to approach record highs. An Israeli airstrike killed the son of Hamas’ chief negotiator in U.S.-mediated Gaza talks, a senior Hamas official said, as the group’s leaders met in Cairo to safeguard their truce with Israel.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures inch higher, while oil prices slipped for a third straight day on rising hopes for a US-Iran deal. The US is now awaiting Tehran’s response to its latest proposal, though
it remains unclear whether Iran will accept. But investors have largely stayed focused on a strong earnings season and the continued tech rally. Of the 411 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts.
Analysts at BlackRock maintain a “pro-risk stance” on US stocks and currently overweight. The Trump administration has started issuing refunds for the $166 billion in global tariffs that the US Supreme Court ruled unlawful earlier this year. In corporate news,
Anthropic signed an agreement with SpaceX to access computing resources from a large SpaceX data center. Snap and Perplexity have scrapped their deal to integrate Perplexity’s AI-powered answer engine directly into Snapchat, dashing earlier hopes for improved
profitability at the social media company. Angelini Pharma agreed to buy Catalyst Pharmaceuticals for $31.50 per share in cash. Whirlpool shares tumbled 20% in post-market trading after the household appliance manufacturer cut its revenue forecast for the
full year, noting North American industry demand reached recession-level lows.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading,

  • Magnificent Seven: Mostly higher, led by Tesla (TSLA +1.7%) and Alphabet (GOOGL +1.1%). Apple (AAPL -0.1%) slightly lower.
  • Notable Winners
  • Fluence Energy (FLNC) +31% — narrower EBITDA loss, maintained strong revenue outlook
  • Fortinet (FTNT) +15% — earnings + revenue outlook beat, strong hardware demand
  • Sezzle (SEZL) +15% — raised full-year growth forecast
  • DoorDash (DASH) +10% — strong order-value guidance signals healthy consumer demand
  • Warby Parker (WRBY) +7% — revenue beat
  • Albemarle (ALB) +6% — Q1 sales topped estimates
  • Notable Decliners
  • Fastly (FSLY) -25% — earnings failed to justify recent rally
  • Whirlpool (WHR) -18% — cut revenue guidance
  • Shake Shack (SHAK) -18% — revenue miss
  • Zoetis (ZTS) -10% — lowered EPS guidance
  • Arm Holdings (ARM) -8% — weak smartphone-related royalty revenue
  • Coherent (COHR) -3% — disappointing margins
  • Other Movers
  • McDonald’s (MCD) +3% — larger US order sizes boosted results
  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +4% — EBITDA and revenue beat
  • Key Themes
  • Cybersecurity and energy-storage names outperforming on strong guidance.
  • Consumer demand remains resilient (DASH, MCD, CELH).
  • Smartphone weakness pressured semiconductor suppliers like ARM.
  • Guidance cuts continue to drive sharp downside reactions.
  • Veeco Instruments (VECO) +23% on strong orders and mixed-but-solid results.

European gauges edge lower with food & beverage and energy sectors leading losses while luxury shares outperforming on strong Chinese consumer data. UK stocks underperform
as investors monitored a flurry of corporate earnings. UK’s FTSE 100 index dropped 0.6%, pulled down by Shell Plc after it cut its buyback. Centrica Plc also fell after it warned that retail earnings would likely be at the lower end of its guidance range.
Voters in England, Scotland and Wales head to the polls today in a key test for PM Keir Starmer as his Labour Party’s popularity declines. Zealand Pharma A/S surged 16% after the Danish biotechnology firm reported a smaller-than-expected net loss for the first
quarter. Davide Campari-Milano NV fell 12% after the Italian spirits maker reported revenue growth that missed estimates, while Tenaris SA declined 6%. Stoxx 600 -0.25%, DAX -0.2%, CAC -0.25%, FTSE 100 -0.6%. Food & Bev -1.7%, Telecom -1.2%, Energy -1.1%,
Utilities -1.1%. Travel & Leisure +1.4%, Basic Resources +1.4%.

Shares in Asia rose, supported by a catchup rally in Japanese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.2% after gaining 2.4% in the previous session. TSMC, SoftBank
Group and SK Hynix provided the biggest boost to the advance. Japanese equities staged a stunning rally to catch up with global peers after the Golden Week holidays. Chinese chip stocks extend their rally, catching up with global AI peers and buoyed by the
report of DeepSeek’s fundraising. South Korean stocks closed at a fresh high and overtakes Canada as world’s seventh largest stock market. Nikkei 225 +5.6%, Topix +3.0%, Taiwan +1.9%, Hang Seng Index +1.6%, Kospi +1.4%, Indonesia +1.1%, Philippines +1.1%,
ASX 200 +0.95%, Vietnam +0.95%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Singapore +0.3%. Sensex -0.15%, Thailand -0.6%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains into early US session, supported by lower oil prices and European bond rally. Gilts are also in focus with UK local elections underway.
US session includes weekly jobless claims and several Fed speakers. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer on the day with curve spreads mildly steeper. 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.30%.  IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Three names priced $14.5
billion Wednesday, led by Eli Lilly’s $9b eight-part offering. On average, issuers paid negative concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed

 

METALS: 

Gold climbed to a two-week high, lifted by a weaker dollar and falling oil prices, as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal eased inflation and interest-rate hike concerns.
Spot gold is trading above $4,735/oz, extending Wednesday’s 3% rally on US-Iran deal optimism. Investors are now awaiting the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday to assess how the Fed ‌will move forward with monetary policy this year. Meanwhile, China’s
central bank loaded up on gold for an eighteenth straight month. Spot gold +1%, Silver +5.4%, Copper futures +0.5%. 

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices sank on optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, even as the fate of the critical Strait of Hormuz appeared unresolved.  Brent fell as much as 3.8% shortly
after a post from Al Arabiya, a Saudi-affiliated outlet, said that agreements were reached on easing the US blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, citing sources. Futures have since swung in choppy trading. Brent trades around
$98 a barrel, extending a 12% slump in the two prior sessions on mounting confidence that an agreement in the Middle East is within reach. WTI -3.5%, Brent -3.3%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB -2.7%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell as the US awaits Iran’s response to its proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian krone is outperforming after the
Norges Bank delivered a surprise interest rate hike. Most economists had expected rates to stay on hold. Swedish krona is higher after Sweden’s central bank left borrowing costs steady, as widely expected, and reiterated that it doesn’t foresee any imminent
change. The yen hovers around 156.30/USD, while yuan sets a fresh cycle high following a strong PBOC fixing. Japan’s top currency diplomat said that Tokyo faces no limits on how often it can intervene in currency markets and remains in daily contact with US
authorities, underscoring its strong resolve to defend the yen. Japan probably spent around $30 billion since its currency intervention on April 30, according to a Bloomberg analysis. US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD +0.3%,
NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.5%, USDNOK -0.6%.

 

 

Spot Bitcoin -0.5%, Spot Ethereum -0.7%. 

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Agilon Health (AGL) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $49
      • Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $48
    • Alcoa (AA) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $70
    • BrightView (BV) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $14
    • Chevron (CVX) Raised to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $202
    • Exxon (XOM) Raised to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $160
    • Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $125
    • Freshpet (FRPT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $68
    • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $94
    • Oracle (ORCL) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $255
    • Scorpio Tankers (STNG) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Selective Insurance (SIGI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $97
    • United Therapeutics (UTHR) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $738
  • Downgrades
    • Accuray (ARAY) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Angi (ANGI) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Chiron Real Estate (XRN) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $38
    • Clear Secure (YOU) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $60
    • Criteo (CRTO) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $18
    • First Capital REIT (FCR-U CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$24.20
    • Kennametal (KMT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $47.50
    • Modiv Industrial (MDV) Cut to Neutral at Alliance Global Partners
    • Ouster (OUST) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
    • Portillo’s (PTLO) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • QuidelOrtho (QDEL) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $12.50
    • Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$70
      • Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$70
    • Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
  • Initiations
    • Aprea Therapeutics (APRE) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $5
    • CNH Industrial (CNH) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $11
    • Innovex (INVX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $35

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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