With the S&P going up so much this month and making good of all the negatives, crude oil has has been off the short list lately. After the CME Group’s crude oil futures (CLJ15:NYM) rallied from their $44.37 low up to 55.05, the oil bulls came out in force, but with OPEC unable to agree to stem the flow of oil, it came crashing back down to $47.82 yesterday, taking the S&P futures (ESH15:CME) along for the ride.

It has been an exceptionally slow week for the markets. From the currencies to gold to the S&P, it seems like most markets are stuck in low-volume ranges. When we asked around on the floor, most of the locals we spoke to said they had no idea why things were so slow.

The only thing moving is crude oil. Over the last several weeks there has been a major pickup in HFT, and if you have the proper volume charts you can see how the computers ravage the oil markets all day long. When volatility in one market drops, the programs move to other high-volume, high-volatility markets that return more profits. Lately, crude oil has been at the epicenter. Like stock traders, futures traders shift their focus from one market to another, but in the big picture everything has slowed and it’s not just in the US; Asia and Europe are seeing the same combination of high prices and low volumes.

But like most declines over the last few weeks, the selling dried up going into the close and the S&P popped back when $420 million showed up on the close to buy. We still think the S&P can trade back down a little, but it’s not the up days that concern us. In fact, it’s the S&Ps inability to establish any percentage losses. As we often say, the S&P has to go down to go up; this sideways action does not interest enough buyers to make anything happen.

The MrTopStep crew is working overtime to make sure the PitBull Unplugged webinar tomorrow will be a smashing success. There are a few others doing webinars tomorrow too, and all I have to say is good luck. Our webinar will include one of the best independent traders of our time, plus a look at MarketDelta, LiveSquawk, and Marlin Cobb from MrTopStep will be showing the MiM and some other cool stuff we are working on. I hope to see all of you there.

Thank you,
Danny Riley AKA MrTopStep

MrTopStep Unplugged Feb 28th webinar featuring the PitBull Marty Schwartz.

LAST DAY TO SIGN UP!!!

Our view: Oil sells off, the S&P goes for the ride and then rallies on the close. There is very little in the way of market-moving news right now and everyone is hanging their hats on the same hook. How long can it go on like this? If you’re selling option premium you’re probably killing it. That said, with all the big economic reports we hope we see a pickup in today’s trade.

You may have noticed this week’s reports have been short and sweet. Ever since I made an impromptu announcement about doing a webinar last week I have been non-stop working. Between the 3 to 5 hours of sleep I get a night and the 18+ hours a day I have been working, I am seriously punch-drunk. That said, if you want to make the money you must do the work. Our view is Fridays have not been kind to the S&P lately: down 4 out of the last 5. My gut tells me we retest and break yesterday’s low at some point, but if the volume is light like it’s been all week we could see a little “thin to win” and maybe a Late Friday Rip with some sizable MOC buying. You can take it from there….

“CRUDE OIL TAKES THE S&P FOR A RIDE”

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

• In Asia 6 out of 10 markets quoted closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.36%, Hang Seng -0.32% Nikkei +0.06%
• In Europe 7 of 12 markets are trading lower: DAX +0.10%, FTSE -0.11%, MICEX -0.23%, Athens GD.AT -3.82%
• Fair value: S&P -1.90 , Nasdaq -0.78 , Dow -14.63
• Total volume: 1.1Mil ESH and 3.2k SPH traded
• Economic schedule: William Dudley speaks, Loretta Mester speaks, Stanley Fisher speaks, GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Credit, Pending Home Sales.

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