Market Review
ES – Zones update
The S&P has recovered nearly half of the losses from the Coronavirus drop. We may extend further to the top of the current range towards 2885/2900 where there is also a gap from the violent gap down on Sunday 8th March.
All eyes will be on the cases over the weekend, We suspect we have have some consolidation before upper targets.
ES Levels for today
- 2690 is the big line in the sand, above you can buy for retests of the Globex high. Below you may move back towards 2620-30
- 2615-30 is the bottom of the range and another area for longs
- Extreme buy area 2590-2575 bottom of the range
- The current main sell area is up at 2765 and 2885, sell areas will be updated on Zoom closer to the open.
For updates and live level’s join us on Zoom
ID – 818-561-3357
Gagan Daphu
ES-Zones
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
$2B to buy, ride along. My Naz data unfortunately did not work. Next week we will be presenting more data and insight into the close. Enjoy your 3 day’s reset.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- How Far Have Apple’s Earnings Estimates Fallen…
- State Police recruiting chat online Thursday
- Coronavirus is clobbering the real estate industry.…
- KAONMEDIA to integrate the ASSIA CloudCheck™…
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
- Dow Reclaims 23,000 as Stocks Rise 3%
- Starbucks Shares Fall 2% As Second Quarter Earnings…
- Nebraska Cattlemen’s group calls for DOJ…
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Daily Roundup April 8, 2020
- As pandemic deepens, Trump cycles through targets to blame
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2684.75 | Opening Print: 2688.75 |
| Low: 2620.75 | High 2752.50 Late |
| Volume: 380,000 | Low: 2653.25 Early |
| ES Settlement: 2734.75 +97.5 Handles or +3.70% | |
| Total Volume: 2.3M |
S&P 500 Futures:
The ES rallied up to 2684.75 on Globex and traded 2688.75 on Wednesday morning’s 8:30 CT futures open. After the open, the ES rallied up then sold off down to 2753.25 at 9:10 AM CT and the Nasdaq futures (NDM20:CME) sold off. After the low the ES back and filled for the next hour and rallied up to 2715, pulled back down to 2701 then rallied up to 2721.75. The ES then sold off down to 2689.50 at 1:10 and then rallied back up to 2716.75. After another push down to the 2698 level, the ES blasted up to a new high at 2725, pulled back a few handles then slit shot up to another new high of 2735.25 at 1:40.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2734.00, traded 2736.00 at 2:30 and traded 2747.50 as the 2:50 (cash imbalance) MiM showed $2 billion to buy. On the 3:00 cash close the #ES traded 2739.00 and settled at 2734.75, up 95.5 handles or +3.70% on the day.
In terms of the day’s overall tone, the ES was ‘all buyers, all day’. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 2.2 million contracts traded minus the 380,000 from Globex making total day volume the 1.82 million contracts traded on the day session
Our View
Tell me if I am wrong. China lifts the Wuhan lockdown on the exact day U.S. cases jump to over 400,000. All I know is the timing of China ‘going public’ about the virus that locked down the entire country seems a little suspicious. China and the US are going toe to toe. China wants to set itself up as the world’s largest economy.
I am going to say it like this, like Donald Trump or hate him he is not afraid to shake things up. While I am very concerned that the U.S. is going to go through a big economic ‘rough patch’ I also understand Yankee ingenuity. We are a nation of beating back long odds and I am sure there will be a recovery but it is going to take time. Some people will be forced to try different fields and the ‘baby boomers’ will be forced to make a lot of decisions. It will be the first time the generation has been tested. For 60 – 80-year-olds the last thing we want to see is the S&P in single digits. If that happens then I think the word depression may become a common conversation but we are not there yet. In fact the ES is trading just belows its 50% retracement level of the decline at 2788.
Our view, there are a lot of traders that think the ES is a short over the three day holiday weekend as the coronavirus cases soar. To me, that makes sense but is the upcoming holiday already priced in? I say yes and no to that. The higher the number of cases the larger the downside. That’s one view and the other is Italy appears to be turning the corner in its battle against the virus. New infections are declining, the number of people needing intensive therapy and other hospital care is stabilizing, and the daily death toll is finally trending down. The US government does seem to be fighting but maybe, just maybe we are in the second inning of this game. Our lean, volume has been dropping for the last 2+ weeks. Risk appetite is lower and people are scared. My lean is for some early sell programs and then rally again. There are a lot of ES buy stops building up above 2755 up to 2780 and above 2795 up to 2840. I’m not saying we go there today but it’s food for thought. What the ES does in the last hour is totally controlled by the guys with the better seats and the 2:50 cash imbalance.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet